[GVI Forex 2]

USDX 4 HOUR CHART – PROXY FOR THE EURUSD?

With the EURUSD representing 57.6% of the US Dollar Index (USDX), this index can at times be used as a proxy for what is seen on a EURUSD chart.

In this USDX chart, momentum is trying to build to the upside that needs to take out 105.10 to indicate an end to this latest leg to the downside.

Re EURUSD, this was posted by Michael Caif yesterday

May 21, 2024 at 8:17 pm|
michael Calif

Option Profile now BEARISH Euro futures – any rallies should be sold

[michael Calif]

Option Profile now BEARISH Euro futures – any rallies should be sold

[michael Calif]

Option Profile has reverted to NEUTRAL on Yen futures – longs have been sold

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Watch the “50” level

The way I look at it, there are only 2 key levels on this chart that would trigger key stops, 1.0813 and 1.0895.

This leaves it consolidating within a break 1.08-1.09 range where 1.0850 will likely set its bias and what side is at risk.

Market down today’s range, especially the high for EURUSD and other currencies, and see if it produces a Monday Effect week (I will post a link to an article on this)..

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidation

XAUUSD trading in the upper half of 2350-2400 with the risk on the upside while above 2351 but with little incentive unless the top end is taken out.

I guess you call this consolidation currently trading above the mid-point around 2375.

[Mtl JP]

Seeking Alpha curtesy
–
Vladimir Putin has landed in Beijing for a two-day state visit, where he was greeted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping with a red-carpet welcome and a full military band. The trip will build on their commitment to the “no limits” relationship they signed at the Winter Olympics in 2022, just before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Russia becomes isolated from the West on the world stage, it has sought to boost trade in the East and elsewhere, helping prop up its economy in the face of sanctions.

Quote: “Relations between Russia and China are not opportunistic and not directed against anyone,” Putin declared. “Our cooperation in international matters is one of the stabilizing factors in the international arena.” Xi echoed the sentiment, adding that China will “work together to achieve the development and rejuvenation of our respective countries” and “to uphold equity and justice in the world.”

Trade between the two nations has soared to record levels, rising 26% last year to $240B and hitting targets ahead of schedule. Russia has even overtaken Saudi Arabia as China’s main oil supplier, while the latter sends back key commodities, vehicles and other consumer goods. Trade has also seen Russia’s economy top expectations to expand by 3.6% in 2023, according to the IMF, despite Western efforts aimed at draining the Kremlin’s war coffers.

Reaction? Wall Street Breakfast ran a survey last November, and again this week, on how the U.S. should manage its economic relationship with China. The biggest changes over the past six months showed that more subscribers have less faith in rapprochement and trade deals (24% to 15%), while a greater number believe decoupling and sanctions are the way to go (11% to 19%). It’s noteworthy as Washington has recently threatened additional sanctions on Chinese banks and entities that handle Russian trade involving dual-use goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes. How does all of this factor into your investing decisions?

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating?

AUDUSD will likely follow the general USD lead on Friday

Key levels are highlighted on this chart, anything within them would just be a consolidation

Judging by the pause above .6650, this level will be pivotal in keeping a bid focused on .67+

Below .6650-55 would put .6628 in play.

Given the way risk on has helped drive the USD lower, keep an eye on US stocks as they could influence the fx market.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART –

As noted yesterday, 60000 seems to be a pivotal level with BTC finding support as it continues to consolidate with a better bid today.

Levels on the upside are clear as seen on this chart but would also need to clear 65000 to shift the focus from 60K to 70K

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE CHART – TRADING LESSON

You have seen me talk about the influence of cross on spot trading and this is how I look at it using EURGBP to illustrate:.

– When you see a straight line move down as in this chart (I look at the 15 min chart), it suggests there is a real money flow (order) driving, in this case, EURGBP lower.

– So you know GBPUSD is being bought and EURUSD is being sold.

= During this straight-line move, given the current trend, GBPUSD will be supported.

– Once EURGBP finds support, either GBPUSD will lose its strong bid or EURUSD will play catch-up.

– In this case, GBPUSD has lost its bid and slipped once the EURGBP bounced off its low.

If you ever played the game “Hot Potato” you can go with the flow until the music stops (i.e. order is filled)

[Mtl JP]

Biden raises tariffs on $18 billion of Chinese imports: EVs, solar panels, batteries and more
* President Joe Biden plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicle imports, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells and a 25% tariff on certain Chinese steel and aluminum imports.
*The announcement comes after weeks of White House officials warning Beijing to amend certain trade practices that the Washington argues have weakened global supply chains.
* Administration officials predicted that these tariffs will have “no inflationary impact.”

Biden administration has so far maintained that these tariffs will have “no inflationary impact” because they are not “across the board”

[GVI Forex 2]

BTC 4 HOUR CHART –

WHuke BTC flounders for direction, the 2 Amazing Trader red lines, otherwise known as an AT directional indicator, signaled a shift in risk to the upside.

To turn this more than just a bounce, it would need to break above 53441

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD DAILY CHART – WILL CONSULTATION BE BROKEN?

if you take a step back and a deep breath you will see that the AUSUSD has been consolidating within the broad .6269-.6869 range for the whole year-to-date

The range has been narrowed to .6361-.6667, so you can see why .6600 has become pivotal as a break of .6667 would out the .6869 level in play.

Looking at a 4-hour chart, there is a double top around .6644 and a key support at .6558

[Belgrade Bobby]

NVIDIA Weekly
Stock price ended at $898.78 on Friday, after gaining 1.27%.

The NVIDIA stock price gained 1.27% on the last trading day (Friday, 10th May 2024), rising from $887.47 to $898.78. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.43% from a day low at $892.33 to a day high of $914.00. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.44% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -4 million shares and in total, 33 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $29.86 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

[Mtl JP]

unusual incident
–
timesofisrael
“12 soldiers stung by wasp swarm after tank runs over nest in southern Gaza”

In unusual incident, Sheba Hospital admits 10 of the soldiers for treatment, with one sent to ICU, says some were stung by hundreds of the insects, but none in critical danger

Note to piece authors EMANUEL FABIAN and MICHAEL HOROVITZ
Actually not unusual at all. bees, wasps, scorpions and other insects have long history of military battle use from approximately medieval age to including current “modern” warfare.

[Mtl JP]

after daly aped kashkari
here we are:
–
US 10-YR 4.459% +0.01; DLRx 105.07 in the crapper after breaking out of morning consollidation (as is Dlrchf)

so some might ask is friday going to be an “often after dust settles” one-way day
tia

[SF Monedge]

Shares are being modestly bought.  Euro is behaving modestly sold.  Volume in stocks is negative.  Euro is going with the volume.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 107.60
–
my primitive tech studies and signals sugget that since dip from 1.08ish is rather shallow, and seeing as puppy is currently kindof wallowing (or consolidating) odds are puppy will climb again unless it slipps and breaks down 1.074-ish Supp.

[SF Monedge]

Tick ratios in S/P 500 stocks have lost 1/3 of their 20 day range indicating consolidation and an upcoming strong move either up or down from current/recent levels.

Looking further out and with a macro perspective, considering that there is a tremendous gap between US stocks and Fed Fund futures, which has to converge at some point, this begs the question – what will happen to EurUsd as that transpires?  The answer would be a selloff in stocks and in bonds and the yields rise over time, especially looking out toward the 4th quarter of the year.

I like Bobby’s notation of Nvidia looking like a sell and I am on board with that.  That could very well impact EurUsd longs if it does transpire.

[GVI Forex 2]

AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATING

Similar to other pairs AUDUSD is trading below highs set after Friday’; US jobs report.

What I like about this type of chart is that the key levels are clear, which gives a framework to trade with shorter time frames.

In this regard, ,6565 needs to hold to keep the .6648  high on the radar while the upside is limited unless the high is taken out,

[SF Monedge]

For novices – there is a nice trendline from last weeks low in AudUsd that value is resting on at around 6620, and since Aud has good fundamental one might argue it would move higher.  You must pay attention to the bigger picture though.  If you look at larger time frames of analysis, 6660 could end up being a solid resistance area for bulls.  AND it has the mark of the beast on it!