[Alex Lugano]

Dollar higher as Fed signals no rush to cut rates, BoE holds rates steady

·         Dollar up as Fed says in no rush to cut

·         Sterling slips after hitting four-month high, BoE on hold

·         SNB cuts, Riksbank on hold

·         Aussie down after soft labour data, kiwi down 0.5%

·         The dollar rose on Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it was in no rush to cut rates further this year due to uncertainties around U.S. tariffs, while the pound remained lower after the Bank of England kept rates steady.

·         The Swiss franc weakened slightly after the Swiss National Bank lowered its policy rate to 0.25%, while the Swedish crown was soft after its central bank maintained its interest rate.

·         U.S. policymakers projected two quarter-point interest rate cuts were likely later this year, the same median forecast as three months ago, even as they expect slower economic growth and higher inflation. On Wednesday, the Fed held its benchmark overnight rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range.

·         “There is probably not enough in the Fed communication to build fresh USD shorts,” said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

·         Traders are pricing in 63 basis points of Fed easing this year, about two rate reductions of 25 bps each and around a 50% chance of a third. Markets are fully pricing in the next cut in July, LSEG data showed.

 

[David Shepherd]

GBPUSD has said it all after the consolation. We later out line the best setup to sell.

[GVI Forex 2]

NAS100 4 HOUR CHART – Double top but…

To make thix more than consolidation,  BREAK OF 20118-240 is needed to confirm.

Standing in the way is a double top at 19945..

In any case, keeps a bid while above 19346-445.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART –  Touch of risk on

A touch of risk on ahead of the FOMC

To suggest more than consolidation, last week’s 5749 high would need to be taken out.

On the downside, should find support at the 5597 double bottom barring a surprise by the Fed.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – PAY ATTENTION

I always pay attention when any instrument trades around the :50” level….

This time it is XAUUSD pausing below 3050 (high 3045)

It is hard to call for a correction given the strength of trend but stall below 3050 suggests some consolidation

BUT only below 3000 would dent the risk on the upside, below 2978 would negate it..

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

… the dollar trading firmer

EURUSD back to 1.09 for the 7th day in a row after running stops to a low at 1.0873.  Note a failure again to make a serious run above 1.0950 (this time paused below it).

Perhaps some disappointment the Trump-Putin call did not result in a full  ceasefire

USDJPY 150 briefly tested (high 150.02) after the BoJ kept policy steady

Turkish lira smashed following arrest of chief political rival

XAUUSD consolidating after surging to another record high yesterday

Looking ahead… Fed day today… see detailed FOMC preview
 

 

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0947

puppy, on longer time bars, looks to be having a solid run uP. Hoever it has yet to pop over 1.1065

it may need to test 1.0875/50 and if the test would hold maybe re-charge for new run uP for 1.1065 amd beyond.

A “successful” ukrainian war resolution should be euro-positive to some degree.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Test coming up

Taking a breather by consolidating between 2978-3005.

Stays bid while above 2956 (former record high ) and a key 2932 level BUT needs 3000 to become support for a fresh leg higher.

 

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4H

Is this a start of run to 1.32 ?

Supports: 1.29400 & 1.29300

Resistances: 1.29750 & 1.29900

We’ve been watching a consolidation from 12th March and it is starting Up again.

Now I don’t want to bother you with details, but one is very important – how Cable is going to close this bar – for more advances I prefer somewhere around 1.29500 and then for the new high.

Worst case scenario is if it closes close to the previous high – than expect a pull back towards MA’s

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 5 days in a row

Past 5 days trading around 1.09 except one day when the high was 1.0897 (close enough)

Range over this period has been 1.0822=-1.0947… midpoint is 1.08845 as a reference level.

Next directional move will be dictated by whether 1.09 becomes a solid support or resistance…. looking at this chart shows either uptrend out of steam so consolidting

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART _ Taking a breather

Consolidating between 2978-3905 after briefly breaching 2000_ on Fruday.

Keeps a bid as long as it trades above 2956 (former record high ) and a key 2932 level BUT… needs 3000 to become support for a fresh leg higher.

[David Shepherd]

I sold gold immediately after the ma’s crossover and align with bar formation.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Previous Up trend lost.

Sideways consolidation is overtaken by serious Correction now.

Supports: 1.08200, 1.08050 & 1.07850

Resistances: 1.08600, 1.08750 & 1.08950

Pressure is to down side , with possible upticks towards 1.08600

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.08750 & 1.08500

Resistances: 1.09150, 1.09350 & 1.09500

So far this looks as a sideways consolidation, but it can quickly become full blown correction.

1.08500 is a very important level now.

If below next stop is at 1.07500

[Adam Global]

Gold still consolidating 

[GVI Forex 2]

I can’t resist posting this EURUSD chert… 15 minute candle post-CPI range 1.0931=1.0878

A solid move below 1.0880 would be needed to cool the upside and confirm a pause.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –  Back above 148

It is hard to fight real money flows that seem to be driven by JPY crosses, such ad EURJPY, which is building on yesterday’s breakout above 161.27 and helping to pull USDJPY above 148.

While damage is not fatal (i.e. it would need to move above 151.30 for an outside week), the solid move through 148.00-40 has broken the downward momentum

So, expect support if 148+ holds bit would need to get through 150.00-20 to suggest anything more than a retracement.

Watch the risk on/off mood as the former seems to be a factor today.

 

–

[GVI Forex 2]

Logic prevailed as sroxks sold off and USDJPY followed

March 11, 2025 at 1:34 pm
GVI Forex

US stocks backing off… weaker JPY if mood turns risk off is inconsistent… much depends on whether the EURJPY order is filled and how stocks trade

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Sentiment improves modestly after Monday’s hefty losses, and DXY hits fresh YTD low awaiting further Trump updates

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market. 

4    Things You Need to Know

·     European bourses are mixed; US futures are firmer attempting to consolidate following the prior day’s hefty losses.

·     DXY hits a fresh YTD low as EUR/USD reclaimed 1.09 on German defence spending optimism.

·     USTs hold near unchanged while Bunds slump on the latest fiscal updates.

·     Commodities broadly supported by a diving Dollar; XAU back above USD 2.9k.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART –  DOWNTREND

Solid downtrend that shows a void on the downside.

This makes the most recent low (146.92) the closest support with a void until 145.90 and 141.64.

Another way to look at it is 146.50 blocks exposing 145.00.

Only back above 148 would deflect the risk