[SF Monedge]

JP – forwards contracts have dark clouds all over the place.  Options implied volatility shows stable movement for the current contract (not a directional metric just market participation climate).  Sell side looks dominant internally into buy side volume.  Buy side is dominant overall but the activity is showing a tussle approaching 0880.

Implied volatility in Yen is stale at present, it was rising a bit a week ago and a month ago, so the options market is of the belief we don’t see any dramatic price swings right now.  That can change of course and the MOF/BOJ decision tonight has plenty of potential to alter that.  Right now it is moving lock step with Black-Scholes application so the read is sturdy.  The higher priced options are at 144.90 roughly.

Side note – my primary email was hacked again last night so you have to reach me by phone or through Jay until I get it resolved.  The day I became a CTA years ago they have been after my email and bank accounts since lol.

[GVI Forex 2]

U500 4 HOUR CHART- CONSOLIDATING

Keeps a bid while above 5800.

Would need to break 5865 to put key level in play.

Otherwise, consolidating

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJpY DAILY CHART – Fun and Games

Fun and game yesterday after USDJ{Y retreat from a 153.85 post-election high found support in its opening week gap (above 152.35-40) and popped back above 153. Scroll back to yesterday’s posts to see a good real-time illustration of trading opening week gaps.

Here is a way to keep it simple

If current range is 152-155, then the 153.50 midpoint will dictate which side is ultimately at risk

If the range i a tighter 152-154, then 153 sets the tone.\

Correction: USDJPY high should read 143.88

Otherwise, uptrend is intact unless 151.44 is taken out but consolidating while below 153.85.

[GVI Forex 2]

BTCUSD WEEKLY CHART – RECORD HIGH ON THE RADAR?

While currencies consolidate, BTCUSD is trying to make a run at its record 73840 high following the long awaited move back above 70K.

To make a run at the high, 72K would need to be firmly broken.

Back beoow 70L would cool the risk, strong bid while above it.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HIUR CHART – AIMING FOR ANOTHER RECORD HIGH?

Keep this one simple

Uptrend consolidating

Watch 2750… if it becomes support, a run at the record high would seem inevitable

Should 2758 be broken, it would then need to become support for 2780-00 to come on the radar.

Back below 2739-50 would cool the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – FOCUS ON 1.08

Current consolidation range is 1.0761-1.0839, a symmetric 39 pip range either side of 1.08.

1.08 has printed 4 days in a row coming into today… see if this pattern can be extended or broken.. a break of this type of pattern often sends a directional signal.

So, 1.08 is clearly pivotal and will dictate the tone going forward.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOIUR CHART – GAP FILLED

Opening week gap down filled.

What caught ny eye is that XAUUD hanging d despite some easing of Israel-Iran escalation fears.

To suggest more than just consolidating on either side of 2700-60 would need t be taken out..

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Daily

Supports : 152.050, 151.700 & 151.150

Resistances : 153.900 , 155.250 & 158.250

Watch that 153.900 resistance – can be a hard nut to break…but if taken out – sky is the limit 😀

Expect consolidation to Down next 48h

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.08 PATTERN

EURUSD extending its trading pattern around 1.,08 to 4 days in a row a it consolidates above last week’s 1.0761 high.

To further highlight the 1.08 pattern, the current range is 39 pips either side of it (1.0761-1.0839)\

To suggest momentum for a run at 1.0761, 1.0782 swould need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 1 HIUR CHART – RECIRD HIGH LOOMS

‘
To keep it simple, to expose the record high 2543 needs to become support.

Support on dips while above 2716 but consolidation unless a new high is set.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating before the election

While attention has been on the US election, Japan goes to the polls this weekend.

This runs the risk of a gap opening to start next week and also the BoJ waiting in the wings to covertly intervene if needed.

Otherwise, 152 remains a pivotal level, 151.40 = 200 daily mva (paused above it).

Suggests a 51.50-152.50 as a possible consolidation range.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidation or Retracement?

‘
It has been hard to bet against the relentless rise in XAUUSD but chart shows potential for a top for now, a retracement or at least consolidation.

To suggest a retracement, 2700-08 would need to be firmly taken out.

Otherwise, just consolidation.

[SF Monedge]

All US yields are weak.  All key commodities are strong.  Yen options are being sold so EurJpy is in good shape with UsdJpy not as much due to other  conditions.  With stocks up and other conditions up the safer pair is EurJpy.  Data pending at the top of the hour and a lot of auctions up later.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOIUR CHART – 1.30 remains pivotal

Key chart level is 1.2995 but 1.30, the breakdown level is likely most important as only solidly above it would confirm the low in this last leg down is in for now.

Otherwise, the bounce is just a retracement.

[GVI Forex 2]

XAUUSD 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATES

Paused above 2701 following retracement from another record high (2758)

This sets the range at 2701/08 – 2750/58 as XAUSSD uptrend consolidates.

What I mean by consolidate is that there are no key stops within the range.

[GVI Forex 2]

I guess looking back, it was too much to expect a one way market given the current geopolitical and political (US election uncertainties,

In any case, there were some failures worth noting

EURUSD failed to stay below 1.0777
USDJOY failed to reach 153.39 (61.8%)
AUDUSD failed ti hold breaks of .6621 and the 200 day mva (6626)
XAUUSD failed in the 2700-14 support zone
US500 failed to sustain break below 5805

However, so far this has just given the market a breather. To suggest anything
More than this EURUSD would need to solidly regain 1.0800, GBPUSD 1.30 and/or USDJPY stay below 152 and move back below its 200 day mva.

[SF Monedge]

Yen option buyers started coming in around 8:30 PST / 11:30 EST.  The result has not yet seen results to cause absolute conviction of Yen pairs selling off and sticking but a decent start in terms of positioning.  To this point it has been a one day sell.  The same timing took place for US stocks and they lifted at the same times but to this point it could just be bottom feeding or hedging or portfolio adjustments.  Fairly convincing week however and today especially to consider the sell side having staying power for Yen pairs.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 15 MINUTE CHART – GIVES A CLUE

 

I keep saying, it pays to watch EURGBP for a clue to treading EURUSD and GBPUSD

The bounces off the EURUSD low mirrored the bounce in EURGBP.

Once the cross topped out at .8326, EURUSD lost its bid and so far consolidating above the day’s low.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION

Nio change to 5805-95 as the consolidation range… To accelerate the upside, 5695 (record high) would need to be broken and become upport.

[GVI Forex 2]

US500 4 HOUR CHART – Consolidating

Pausing but only a firm break of 5800-05 would suggest a more than consolidation and a more serious retracement risk.

On the upside, as I have been noting, a break of the record high and then it become support would be needed to turn up the jets.