[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation: USDJPY (left) US 10 year (right)

Note weaker bonds – higher yields – firmer USDJPY

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY Daily chart

Paused below 150

So far just a correction as long as it stays above the 148.80 breakout level

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Quiet start to the week. All pairs only show marginal changes vs. Friday’s close although the dollar is off early lows. The weakest is NZDUSD  (-0.34%), and the strongest is USDJPY (-0.14%). Others are all in single digits

USDJPY 15 min chart

 

[Swiss Frank]

The question people should be asking re Biden is not whether he runs in the next election but if he’ll last thru this term… Still 11 months to go til Jan 20 next year….

Re JPY- The challenge to trading short JPY positions is the BOJ is holding aces (duh, right?). One comment on shift in policy and the elevator takes the express route down. As soon as they view things a bit too far too fast, they play a card… Game of chicken in other words… I don’t have a good answer for this one other than trade the trend but only with short term trades. Points get left on the table but you sleep better at night….

[Belgrade Bobby]

USDJPY Day ahead :

Resistances at : 149.350, 149.600, 150.050 and the target at 152.650

Supports at :     148.950, 148.600 and  147.600

Yen is on the losing streak , as you would expect. It is very bullish on both – Daily and Weekly chart. If you have really traded Yen, you know that it can have some crazy drops , just to come back up with the vengeance.

Buying it at the current rate is a bit problematic, as any reasonable and useful stop would be at a minimum 30 pips away . Best scenario would be to see some retracement over night , and to be able to pick it up around the steep trend line at 148.600. But…it is up to you and your style….I said at least three million times in past the famous sentence : FFS, I should have bought it 😀

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD range this week 72 pips (0.67..%)

Usdjpy 194 pips (1.3%)

USDCHF 104 (1.2%)

[Swiss Frank]

JPY and CHF officials have recently voiced more policy clarity which has underscored rate differentials as a more predominant driver. EUR and USD officials have been more well we’ll see maybe sooner but probably later not sure how much we’re following the data but sometimes the data is questionable but have to see…

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD

After the sharp drop last week, EURUSD has so far traded a narrow but choppy 67 pip range as its focus is more on crosses, such as EURCHF and EURJPY. Comments welcomed.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY breakout:

Look at this post earlier, the chart and the EURJPY breakout level

February 8, 2024 at 9:45 am

EURJPY 4 hour chart trying to break out to the upside (carry trades?)

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY daily chart – break of last month’s 148.80 high makes this level a key support

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 hour chart trying to break out to the upside (carry trades?)

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDjPY (firmer today)

I don’t have the exact comments but read that dovish comments from a BoJ official suggested that policy normalization will be gradual.

Nothing new in the comments  but reaction is what matters.

[Swiss Frank]

Anyhow…. CHF weakness, Yeah carry works in favor of chf weakness. Behind that is SNB recent communiques indicating chf strength has served its purpose. Maybe they haven’t fully embraced that they want immediate weakness but call it a suggestion. Behind the behind is that Swiss inflation is lowest among the big boys coming around or below 2% which puts them ahead in the crawling race to shift policy. CHF/JPY is a trade a lot of people are watching (selling chf buying jpy to be clear). BOJ when it gets around to it most likely will move in the opposite direction by backing away from yield curve control.

Levels to watch in the absence of being able to post a chart ->
eur/chf the downward sloping trendline on the weekly that currently comes around .9550.
usd/chf -> weekly .9200 daily .8820-.8850

See how….

[Anonymous]

US yields just tumbled (10 year 4.075% vs. 4.133% earlier) – as noted before, USDJPY (lower) is most sensitive to yields.

Market feels thin so beware of a lack of follow through

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields up / usdjpy most sensitive

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields up / usdjpy most sensitive

[Anonymous]

Light calendar tomorrow.

EURUSD 1.0723 is current line in the sand

GBP 1.28,JPY 148, CAD 1.35, AUD .65 are all “magic” levels

[SF Monedge]

MOnedge sold Usd?jpy at 147.19. WQe think it may run out of gas on the short side ad retest approximate lows, only to gather buy side interest. Usd has a positive yield spread.

[SF Monedge]

Ok Monedge is back in GVI. We love Global View and hope you all have a great trading day. What worked for us last night was a sell stop in Usd/Jpy. Pretty dicey but our model simply said place it, sometimes you have to trust your model. The pair will obviously rebound but we do not feel like going long at this point, even though it is considerably sold. Jay has told everyone for decades to be careful about catching a falling knife. That could apply here.

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.16%

Markets correlate (Note USDJPY 148.15)