[GVI Forex 2]

Dollar up (except vs JPY, stocks down), Trump=Zelensky press conference cancelled

 

Source: Newsquawk.com

[GVI Forex 2]

Risk off (stocks back down, yields dip, USDJPY follows)…

Reminder, it is month end where erratic swings and false starts are often the norm rather than the exception.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY (posted earlier)…high so far 150.988

With that said, if you view the range as 149-151, then 150 is the midpoint and the ultimate bias setter.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –  Back above 150

Move above 150.30 breaks the downward momentum but doesn’t reverse it. A move above 150.73 (high 150.59) would be needed to build momentum to the upside.

With that said, if you view the range as 149-151, then 150 is the midpoint and the ultimate bias setter.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP

Liquidating markets across asset classes taking no prisoners.

The dollar holding firm at month end with USDJPY back above 150 and AUD and NZD underperforming. .

Watch month end rebalancing flows to see whether a risk of dollar buying (hard to say how much has already taken place) given weaker stocks.  I read   bank report earlier in the week indicating it expects EURUSD selling given the underperformance of US stocks relative to European stocks

This is not an exact science so keep an eye on what looks like real money flows, especially ahead of the 4 PM month end London fixing

Elsewhere;

Golfdextending its retreat.

Cryptos down sharply

US bond yields falling further but off earlier lows.

US stocks finding some support but the day is young.

Looking ahead

US PCE (watch the core reading) is the key data release… See a detailed preview

Watch for Trump comments, especially after the carnage triggered by his tariff comments yesterday.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Quick recap

EURUSD break of 1.0450..highly suggests 5 day pattern around 1.05 will be broken … 1.0400 is key support, then 1.0372

JPY getting safe haven flows… USDJPY brief move above 150 smacked back below it

GBPUSDF follows EURUSD with a lag (EURGBP lower)… UK so far escaping the tariff wrath of Trump

Stocks hit, boind yields off early highs

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year 4.30% => USDJPY backs off from 150

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

NVIDIA +1% in pre-market after Q4 results, a pick up in yields lift the Dollar ahead of US data

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know

NVIDIA +1.1% in US pre-market after headline beats whilst Q1 gross margins are seen easing.

European bourses on the backfoot with sentiment hit in Europe amid Trump’s EU tariff threats; US futures gain.Pick-up in US yields provides reprieve for USD, USD/JPY eyes a test of 150.

Crude trims recent losses but metals pressured by a firmer Dollar.

<p style=”text-align: center;”><strong><a href=”https://newsquawk.com?fpr=c3imf”>Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free</a></strong></p>

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading tip:

When you see USDJPY out or under perform, keep an eye on other currencies as there is often a cross offset.

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY (last 149.93) correlating (but still below 150) with firmer US yields

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

The dollar trading a touch firmer day before month end gyrations.

EURUSD yet to print 1.05 and extend its 5 day pattern around this level

USDJPY the outperformer after again finding support in the 148s but is still below 150.

Elsewhere

Gold is weaker

US bond yields are up after a sharp fall to 4.25% (10 yr) yesterday

Stocks up a touch

Watch for

US economic data durable goods 2nd GDP revision, weekly jobless claims) : see our Economic Daya Calendar

Trump speak: Watch headlines on tariffs after conflicting talk yesterday on Mexico and Canada

Trump due to speak in the morning and then an afternoon presser with the UK PM

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –  JPY in demand

Risk of a March rate hike vs falling US yields + safe haven JPY buying weighing on USDJPY (and boosting JPY on its crosses)

Keep this simple, bear bias unless 150+ is renewed.

Support 148.50-56, 148.00, 147.30

148 .00 and 148.50 both pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

Trump speaks, stocks sink… bond yields continue to slifde (last 4.25%), weighing on USDJPY

[GVI Forex 2]

Point taken but look at where the flows are going… into JPY and lesser extent GBP

[GVI Forex 2]

… and now stocks pop higher… USDJPY seems most sensitive to risk on/risk off in light trading.

[GVI Forex 2]

JPY getting the SAfe haven flows… hyper sensitive to US stock moves

[GVI Forex 2]

JP, I wouldn’t call 4.302% a widening of yields but…

USDJPY did find support in my 148.50-60 zone

EURUSD didn’t come closeto 1.0530-34

But no real catalyst as stocks are clinging to the lows

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY: Key chart level is 148.61… use 148.50-60 to give some leeway as there is a void below it…

US 10 year 4.294% as stocks remain under pressure

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY through 149.20 as stocks turn down

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Back below 150

More logical to see USDJPY below 150 than above but would need to get through a 149.20 double bottom and 148.84 low to put fresh pressure on the downside.

While 150 is clearly pivotal, only above 150.73 would negate the downside risk.