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USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
The key flow giving EURUSD support is a firmer EURJPY ahead of the BoJ decision early Tuesday.
If you want to sell JPY and not force the BoJ to intervene, one way is to follow the path of least resistance, which is on its crosses.
The chart shows 3 levels of resistance above the market and on the downside, needing to hold the 162.17 level to keep a bid.
As SF Monege pointed out. the prudent approach is to step back and let the dust settle on the BoJ decision as all that is certain is that there should be volatility following it.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
THE FOCUS TO START THE WEEK WILL BE ON USDJPY AND JJPYCROSSES AHEAD OF THE BOJ MARCH 19 DECISION.
The only levels that really matter are 148 and 150 as key levels lie outside of it although 148.03 (and the trendline) are key supports on this chart (suggests 149 as the midpoint)
There are several articles on the BoJ and JPT in our new and outstanding blog
EURJPY 4 HOUR
I was asked why the dollar is not moving up with higher yields today.
My answer: Look at the JPY where weak crosses are giving other currencies, such as the EURUSD, some offset support.
So, take a look at EURJPY, which is testing the next resistance at 162.18.
161.70 is now the key support.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
Some pre-BoJ meeting cold feet have JPY trading weaker
Offsets out of EURJPY buying are helping so far to keep EURUSD above 1.0867 (see post below)
Rising red AT lines show risk to the upside as long as it stays above 148.00-04 but…
Major resistance is not until the upper 150+ so not close to key levels.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART
Key levels are obvious
148.30 resistance (void above it)
148 sets the biasUSDJPY finding support despite the risk of the long-awaited rate hike next week, neutralized by higher US bond yields.
USDJPY 15 MIN CHART
Let’s take a look at a shorter-time frame chart
USDJPY has backed off from a tepid test of 148ish and is still trapped with a bid while above 147.70 support (noted earlier).
See my blog article Is a BoJ Rate Hike Discounted? How Will USDJPY React?
EURJPY 4-Hour Chart
Red AT lines are now dominating as pre-BpJ trading sees USDJPY firm back towards 148 and offsets giving EURUSD some support.
Levels are clear on the chart with a bid while above 161.56 and the trendline.
These are fickle times ahead of the BoJ but for now there seems to be some cold feet from the JOY longs.
USDJPY 30 MIN CHART – Correcting but still below the latest breakdown level
A failure to decisively break below 146.50 leaves the range to 148. On the other side, only 148+ would deflect risk on the downside.
As I noted, 147.61 was a breakdown level so the one blocking a shift in risk back to 148. So far the rebound has paused just below it.
Intra-day levels are in the chart.
NOTE
USDJPY bounced after BoJ Gov Ueda, testifying, gave no hint of a rate hike at next week’s meeting. He said we will see what data shows later in the week.
If trading USDJPY, do it intra-day as one off-hand comment overnight can send this pair up or down as market awaits next week’s BoJ decision.
US CPI next on deck.
A bit different approach to USDJPY
As major supports behind this Up trend are far and away right now -143.250 & 139.000, only approach to trading USDJPY is intraday – time frames from 1h and bellow.
But if we look at it on this Daily chart, the following can be concluded – if in next two days USD finds the strength to go above 148.800 (lots, I know we will be looking at the renewed and even stronger Rally Up.
However, ” If” is not a reliable trading tool, but “Wait and see” comes as a good strategy , so we should accept that approach…
In the mean time, as long as USD is on the defensive, Short it on the smaller time frames given Sell signals , be fast and do not be greedy .
USDJPY 4H Chart – Fibbo Fans