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USD 4 HOUR CHART – INTERVENTION THREAT LOOMS BUT…
USDJPY remains within 151-152 with the market wary of pushing the top side too hard.
However, given the overall USD strength and the pop in bond yields, any intervention would likely prove short-lived unless it continues in a sustained way.
With that said, traders will be wary as they do not want to get caught in the first wave should there be intervention.
USDJPY Week Ahead
Intervention or no intervention – that is the question !
If we just ignore it, this is what it is right now :
Support at 150.500 – has to Hold for move Up
Resistance at 152.000
In my opinion, this is the perfect set up for targeting 155.000
I don’t trade opinions…even my own – but I see it only Up as it is.
USDJPY 4 hour chart – Intervention of not?
Range is very clear 151.00-151.97 but next week is a new ball game.
There seems no compelling reason to intervene as verbal intervention has so far cooled threat but noit negated the threat to 152 and higher.
If they are serious about squeezing the USDJPY longs, then breaks of 151.00/0/trendline/150.26 (and 150.00) would be needed.
AUDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – SHORT JPY POSITIONS BEING UNWOUND
USDJPY IS ABOUT UNCHANGED WHILE THE USD IS FIRMER VS OTHER PAIRS
AUD AND NZD ARE WEAKEST, EUR THEN GBP AND CAD ARE NEXT
WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU?
JAPANESE INTERVENTION THREAT IS BEING TAKEN SERIOUSLY AHEAD OF A LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS SHORT JPY (CARRY TRADE?) CROSSES ARE BEING UNWOUND
ON THIS CHART AUDJPY NEEDS TO TRADE BACK ABOVE.9842 OR RISK STAYS ON THE DOWNSIDE
USDJPY Update: Trend Line Break and Support Levels
The recent price action in USDJPY has seen a break below the ascending trend line on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a prolonged consolidation phase for the uptrend starting from 146.47 is currently in progress.
As long as the critical support level at 150.26 remains intact, there is potential for the upward momentum to resume, with the possibility of further advancement towards the 170.00 region following the consolidation period.
The initial support level to monitor is at 150.95. If this level is breached, it could lead to a test of the key support at 150.26. Only a decisive breakdown below this pivotal level would suggest the potential completion of the uptrend that originated from 146.47.
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – CONSOLIDATION?
With Goldman raising its 3-month USDJPY forecast (see prior post), let’s take a look at a 4-hour USDJPY chart.
With 151.90 remaining the major resistance (shown on a daily chart), currently protected by 1.5181-86, the current range is consolidating between 150/152, with 151 acting as a neutral midpoint.
The key support is at 150.26. above it keeps 151.90 in play, a stronger risk if 151.00 can become support.
The reason that I looked at the range as consolidation is that the upcoming week is not a normal one
Pre-Easter week and a 4-day long weekend break
A week normally dominated by position adjustment rather than aggressive positioning
Light economic calendar, highlight Friday’s US PCE report
Month/quarter end for many on Thursday with markets closed on Friday-Monday
The actual quarter end is Friday
