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EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Holds major resistance
With EURJPY one of the drivers of the EURUSD rally (among other crosses), it pays to take a look as the cross has backed off after a test of the major 161.17 level (see chart).
This has helped steady EURUSD while USDJPY slipped below 148.
Minor support 159.40 and 158.70
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART –  Black hole
After lagging and at times diverging the past few days vs the EUR, JPY has firmed, both vs the dollar and on its crosses,
As you can see by this weekly chart, there is a large black hole on the downside, leaving the focus on the pivotal 148 level to set the tone and dictate whether it can make a run at 146.50 and 145.00 or not..
As I have noted, when you see a big move in USDJPY, especially when it diverges with what others are trading vs the USD, it generally involves a real money cross flow.
Intra=day range: 147.70-149.33
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
The dollar traded softer overnight before some caution set in ahead of the ECB decision. Most currencies are currently showing only modest changes except the JPY, which has been the outperformer (extended low below 148).
Key focus is on the bond market where higher German yields are pulling other country yields higher as well.
Pivotal levels to watch end in 8: EURUSD 1.08, USDJPY 148.
Light U.S. calendar (weekly jobless claims) ahead of the key .S. jobs report on Friday
US stocks currently down, bond yields up…not a good comination
Keep on eye on headlines, specifically tariff replayed
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shoes
The dollar trading weaker, led by the EURUSD, which is in a breakout mode.\
EUR firmer on crosses as well.
USDJPY failed to hold a move above 150.
German bond yields are sharply higher after deal to ease debt restraints (otherwise known as the debt brake)
DAX is up sharply as well.
Zelensky kisses up to Trump by  showing a willingness to negotiate a peace deal.
Trump’s address to Congress unveiled no new policies.
.Trade war still on but CAD and  MXN  rebound suggest caution and hope it  may be a negotiating tactic
Date calendar: US ADP employment and ISM services PMI.
Thisa was a trigger for the risk on reaction USDCAD AND USDMXN drop AND usadjpy pop towards
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Reversal of fortune
At this time yesterday USDJPY was bid out of weaker JPY crosses, a sharp contrast to where it ia currently trading.
You can see by this chart why the recent 148.56 low is a key level (low so far today 148.60).
Looking ahead, unless 150+, is regained, risk will be pointed down
As JP pointed out, keep an eye on US bond yields.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shoes
The dollar trading generally softer but off its lows in what I call T-Day (aka Tariff Day)
EURUSD above 1.05 but upside paused below a key 1.0528-34 zone/
USDJPY is weaker but so far paused just above its recent 148.56 low,
USDCADÂ is lower despite Trudeau retaliating with a 25% tariff on U.S. imports
USDMXN is firmer
XAUUSD is firmer
BTCUSD lower as Trump strategic reserve pop continues to fizzled out
Key highlight: President Trump’s’ address to a joint session of Congress at 9PM EST
Expect Ukraine, DOGE and tariffs to be discussed,.
Trump tanks CAD, MXN, stocks,… bomd yields fall… JPY the MAIN beneficiary of risk off
USDJPY 1 HOUR – 150-151
Tested just outside both sides of 150-151 with JPY crosses (weaker) keeping it above 150.
The key level is on the upside as there is about a 1 JPY void (151.94) above it.
While within 150-151, pivotal 150.50 seta the tine.
As I have noted, when you see two currencies moving in opposite directions (e.g. EURJPY) it indicates real money cross currency flows.
