[GVI Forex 2]

Well, alot of moving pieces going on…

U of M took some of the wind out of stocks but have since bounced back

USDJPY has backed off despite a risk on mood

EURUSD downside contained while above 1.0850.(note German yields have slipped from earlier highs)

No tariff tweets giving stocks some relief.

[GVI Forex 2]

1. 

 

US OPEN<

Spot Gold makes a fresh record high above USD 3000/oz & sentiment lifts ahead of Trump Executive Orders and UoM

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

Stocks gain with sentiment lifted after a strong Chinese session overnight and after the recent market turmoil.

USD mixed vs. peers, GBP soft post-GDP, JPY weighed on by Rengo data, which showed average wage hike less than demands.

Gilts gap higher on soft growth data while JGBs lift on Rengo.

Spot gold makes a fresh record high above USD 3,000/oz; crude oil and base metals benefit from the risk tone.

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[GVI Forex 2]

As I have noted, when you see a sharp mkve in USDFJPY while others either lag or diverge, look for the offset currency.

IN this case, it appears to have been in AUD and NZD ad well as into EUR although a firmer EURGBP may be giving EURUSD some support.

Life in a mutti-currency centric (as opposed to a dollar-centric) trading world..

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –    Following stocks

Main mover today but faces resistance at this week’s 149.19 high and 149.33, which block the pivotal 150 level.

It has been pretty much one-way since 147.85 so only minor levels withing 148-149.

Otherwise watch any reaction to Trump tariff headlines and how stocks trade (note day is still young)

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

TGIF after another Trump tariff headline roulette driven week

USDJPY seems to be following firmer stocks while the dollar is mixed elsewhere

Gold continues shine and within spitting distance of 3000

Looking ahead

Another headline news watch

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

[GVI Forex 2]

Note the correlatiion…

I saw USDJPY pop to 148 ,,, assumed stocks popped as well without even looking at a chart… YEP

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

A reversal of fortune from this time yesterday

JPY firmer, both vs the dollar (USDJPY back below 148) and on its crosses (note EURJPY weaker) as mood turns back to risk off.

Dollar a touch firmer elsewhere. EURUSD so far failed to trade 1.09+ after 2 days testing above it  Commodity currencies trading weaker.

Looking ahead

US PPI and Weekly jobless claims

G7 foreign ministers meet in Quebec amid rising trade/tariff tensions

Looming U.S. shutdown at 12:01 AM Saturday unless there is an agreement to extend funding the government

[GVI Forex 2]

With stocks bouncing from the lows, bond yields following, the FX market is not sure whAT PATH TO FOLLOW while USDJPY remains well of the 149+ high but still up on the day above 148.

EURUSD is back to about unchanged on the day in what seems to be setting up to be an FX range afternoon with the focus mainly on US rquities.

[GVI Forex 2]

With stockw backing off, USDJPY IS backing off after failing to reach 149.33 on the upside…

… support at 148.40 blockw a return to 148.

Here are te FIBOS for 151.30-146.54 posted earlier”

 

[Adam Global]

usdjpy is still inside the trendline

150.00 is still holding on

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures higher & USD incrementally gains ahead of US CPI; JPY modestly lags

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4    Things You Need to Know

·     European bourses are in the green as sentiment in the complex improves; US futures are also higher with the NQ slightly outperforming.

·     USD is a little firmer ahead of US CPI data, JPY lags peers.

·     Bonds are bearish overall amid supply, inflation updates & German fiscal developments.

·     Oil and base metals firmer, gold trades sideways ahead of US CPI.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Thinking out loud— looking for reasons to explain the weaker JPY

Will the BoJ hold back on raising rated Given the chaos and uncertainty in global markets.

Aldo, March 31 is the end of the Japanese fiscal year, which used to be seen as an FX factor but I have not seem it talked about in recent years.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using our Fibonacci Calulator for USDJPY 151.30-146.54

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –  Back above 148

It is hard to fight real money flows that seem to be driven by JPY crosses, such ad EURJPY, which is building on yesterday’s breakout above 161.27 and helping to pull USDJPY above 148.

While damage is not fatal (i.e. it would need to move above 151.30 for an outside week), the solid move through 148.00-40 has broken the downward momentum

So, expect support if 148+ holds bit would need to get through 150.00-20 to suggest anything more than a retracement.

Watch the risk on/off mood as the former seems to be a factor today.

 

–

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

The dollar around unchanged except vs. a weaker JPY, which is also dowm on its crosses

Will have to see if this foreshadows a better showing for stocks, which are currently up, as it faces headwinds from….

— 25% steel and aluminum tariffs taking effect today

— Risk of retaliation (e.g. EU to Impose $28 bln in counter tariffs on US goods)

In the U.S. news programs have been leading with reports on the sharp falls in stocks

Looking ahead (see detailed previews)

US CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision

[GVI Forex 2]

Posted in our blog

Is USDJPY headed for 140?

The stars seem to be lining up for a weaker USDJPY  but the move down has not been a straight line..

Is USDJPY headed for 140?

[GVI Forex 2]

Logic prevailed as sroxks sold off and USDJPY followed

March 11, 2025 at 1:34 pm
GVI Forex

US stocks backing off… weaker JPY if mood turns risk off is inconsistent… much depends on whether the EURJPY order is filled and how stocks trade

[GVI Forex 2]

Now if you want proof of my cross focused Algebra 101 madness roday:

EURUSD 1.0905 (VS 1.0930 HIGH)

USDJPY 147.73 (vs 148.11 high-

EURJPY 161.08 (vs 161.73 high)

Stocks hit an air pocket on downside

[GVI Forex 2]

Here we go… algebra 101

EURUSD buying taking over as EURJPY extends its breakout high_… BUT faces a key resistance at 1.0936

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks backing off… weaker JPY if mood turns risk off is inconsistent… much depends on whether the EURJPY order is filled and how stocks trade.