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USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Unwinding J{Y crosses lead the way
Short-term trend : Up
Longer-term trend: Retracement. 153.975 = 38.2% vs 153.88 high so far today
Keeps a bid while above 153.20
Below 152.89 puts 152,00-50 back on the table
Watch JPY crosses, US bond yields after CPI, headlines for any news on reciprocal tariffs
Using my playing as a HEAztMAP
Tug-of-warUSDJPY up
JPY weaker on crosses (EURJPY leading)
USD mixed elsewhere,
EURUSD high 1.0380. vs 1.0385, where it was trading when reciprocal tariffs news hit last Friday
Next up: US CPI … see detailed preview
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Momentum mixed
When you see 2 currencies move in opposite directions you can assume there are real money cross currency flows driving the market.
In this case, the USD was down vs all except the JPY…. US bond yields were higher, which could have been a factor behind a softer JPY.
Chart shows omentum currently mixed… would need to break153.20 for it to build.
Otherwise,
152.50+ is needed to make a run at 152.90-153.20
Below 152 neutralizes the upside risk.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Another week, another set of opening gapd on tariff news.
All gap filled except for USDCAD
Mixed signs of angst over a global trade war
Stocks up and do far shrugging tariff concerns
Gold surging to another record high on global trade war concerns
USDJPY the outperformer… JPY not getting safe haven flows (no sign of concern) vs weaker JPY )reflects global trade war concerns.
Headline roulette Friday… News algos in overdrive…Dollar pops up on these comments, including vs JPY
Source: Newsquawk.com
USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Watch 152
Keep it simple
Watch 152 as it will be pivotal setting the tone and trading bias,
Support 150.95
Resistance 152.90-153.20, only firmly above it postpones the risk to 150.
Watch US bond yields after the jobs report as the JPY tends to be most sensitive to interest rate moves,
Using my platform as a Heatmap
Given the way markets have reacted to key events and economic data this week all we can say at this point is there will be a reaction to the U.S. jobs report, especially if there is a miss in either direction.
Looking at the Heatmap shows a focus in the JPY… USDJPY finding 150-152, as suggested, a sticky zone.
GBPJPY has bounced back above the key 188.00 level after a brief move below it.
Keep an eye on the U.S. 10-year bond yield post-data and a 4.40%~4.50% range
USDJPY DAILY CHART – ENTERING THE STICKY ZONE
The break of 153.15 leaves a black hole on the downside with the psychological 150 and 149.35 standing in the way of key support until 148.61.
Only back above 152 would postpone the risk.
This suggests 150-152 has potential to be a sticky zine.
Next up: US January jobs report on Friday. With lower US bond yields a weight on USDJPY, use the 10-year 4.50%
yield as a pivotal level (meaning below 4.50% is a USDJPY negative). .
