[GVI Forex 2]

Keep an eye on US stockd, which juxt took a hit with a mixed FX reaction.. JPY up, EUR down.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

… a calm before the Liberation Day storm

Dollar more or less steady and cautious

EURUSD 1.08 has traded for 8th day in a row

USDJPY backed away from 150 but still well above yedterday’s 148.70 low

U.S. bond yields lower (10 year 4.18%)

U.S. stocks cautious

Gold sets another record high

Looking ahead, US ISM PMI

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – ger30

DAX opened with a gap to the upside.

Facing resistance at 22.500, with another one at 22.700

Unless some miracle happens it should fail and go for 21.750

Even if it is meant to continue being bullish, it has to take some time in yoyo-ing , and to form a new base for continuation of the uptrend.

I am mostly interested to see how 21.750 will act.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s take a snapshot at midday and a day and a half before the tariff storm

US stocks recovered earlier losses… USD bond yields bounce off early lows… perhaps some portfolio rebalnacing (stocks vs bonds)… USDJPY back to 150

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Pronounced risk off into ‘Liberation Day’, though crude remains underpinned on US-Iran relations

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.

European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.

DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.

Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.

Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.

US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can’t be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY CHART – Safe haven

JPY getting the safe haven flows, helped by a fall in US bond yields )10 YEAR 4.20%) In a risk off start to the week.

Trendline broken at 149.80 following the failure to reach 151.30

Key support at 148.15… only below it (and then 148) would shift the focus from 150.

Intra-day range: 148.70-149.74

Conspiracy theory says, if I was the MoF/BoJ I would be on alert to prevent a meltdown if the downside starts to accelerate.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Risk off… stocks down, bonds up, gold soars…and..

… dollar mixed.. JPY up on safe haven flows… AUD, CAD, NZD down.. EUR and GBP not far from unchanged

What caught my eye in EURUSD was a failure at 1.0850 (high 1.0849)

Looking ahead: German CPI, Chicago PMI… month/quarter end
… April 2 reciprocal tariffs

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday profit-taking (EURUSD back below 1.0830, USDJPY above 150)… will see if month/quarter end rebalancing on Monday favors the USD as some banks predict… to suggest more than just book squaring EURUSD would need to move below 1.0820, currently support.

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation:

As noted earlier, USDJPY was correlating with the risk on/off mood… now back to 150 as stocks sink, also weighed down by lower US bond yields as well.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar; Carney to speak with Trump today

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

European bourses and US futures approach PCE in the red following the overnight tone and further risk aversion from earthquakes in Myanmar

Canadian PM to speak with Trump today; EU has mentioned Apple, Meta and PayPal as part of any potential tariff response

DXY attempts to claw back Thursday’s pressure and is firmer vs peers ex-JPY, which is the best performer after Tokyo CPI

A firmer start for fixed benchmark ahead of US PCE and any tariff/trade developments, no move to the morning’s prelim. HICP figures

Crude choppy, precious metals underpinned by the tone while base metals are lower

Geopolitics in focus amid updates on Panama, Ukraine minerals deal and further damage to the Sudzha station

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[GVI Forex 2]

HEATMaP is only a snapshot in time… dollar u=is uop now vs all but USDJPY, which is ell off its low.

There may be a reaction to PCE but tariffs will make it a new ball game for those looking ahead.

[GVI Forex 2]

Correlation

USDJPY seems to be correlating with the riwk on/off mood

US stocks bounced off the lows, USDJPY did the same.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

.. the dollar trading firmer except vs. the JPY, a reversal of what wax seen at this time yesterday as mood turns to risk off  (and an unchanged GBPISD… weaker EURGBP)

What caught me eye:

USDJPY came within 10 pips of 151.30 and then went into retreat

EURUSD printed 1.08 (6th day in a row) but no higher

XAUUSD at a new record high

Tame EZ flash CPI

UK retaik salea beat

Looking ahead

Key data focus will be on US PCE

Monday is month/quarter end

Wednesday is reciprocal tariff day

Spring forward for clocks this weekend

 

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY – Key resistance cited

Chart: Positive but faces a key resistance at 151.30, which stays at risk while above 150.50-60.

Note weak JPY crosses (e.g. firmer GBPJPY) adding to USDJPY demand’

I have not seen any specific news to account for the weaker JPY, which reminded me that March 31 is Japanese fiscal yearend.

I remember when this was a key time for FX and stocks but have not heard much talk about it in recent years. So, no clue whether this has been a factor but something to keep an eye on once March 31 passes.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

JPY selling order apparently not done… keep an eye on GBPJPY )leading) and EURJPY

As one of our members wrote just now, out of my radar range.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – BUY ORDER?

All we can do is guess by the price action what flow is driving the market.

In this regard, watch GBPJPY and whether it can hold 194.89.as buying has slowed

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – BUY ORDER?

All we can do is guess by the price action what flow is driving the market.

In this regard, watch GBPJPY and whether it can hold 194.89.as buying has slowed

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR – HITS RESISTANCE

Hit a wall at 163.03… eased upward pressure on USDJPY (high 151.09… last 150.71)

Need to see further evidence on shorter time frame charts that the buy order is done.

[GVI Forex 2]

I was just asked how do you know there is a real money sell order in the JPY?

My reply:; It’s like a tug-of-war with the USD caught in the middle

When yiou see 2 currenies move in oppodite directions vs the USD, (e.g. buying EUR and GBP, selling JPY)you can assume there is “real money” buy or sell  order in the cross.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

European bourses hit on auto tariff rhetoric, DXY mixed vs peers while EGBs & USTs diverge

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.t

6 Things You Need to Know

The US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2nd

Trump reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenient

Updates which weigh on European equities with Auto names lagging, US futures mixed/firmer

DXY mixed with GBP outperforming in an attempted recovery from Wednesday’s action while JPY lags

EGBs and USTs diverge as they focus on growth and inflationary implications of the latest rhetoric respectively

Crude benchmarks lower, TTF choppy, XAU gains and base metals slip