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XAUUSD – Gold
Gold came very close to the support at 2880.00
Now I have seen some crazy moves in my carrier, but never really an instant come back from a dive like this.
It is possible of course, but Pattern wise – if tomorrow Gold hits straight up again, and doesn’t break to the new high , it will be just mere dying fish reaction – and then it will start downwards.
It was overdue for a decent correction for quite some time, so let’s see how it develops.
Supports: 2880.00, 2805.00 & 2735.00
Resistances: 2915.00, 2935.00 & 2955.00
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Dollar close to unchanged after post-German election trading.
Focus on the EU and EURUSD after the German election results were about as expected.
Initial positive reaction was partly driven by hope a new government would remove the debt brake and more spending would boost the Econ. Perhaps on second thought is the reality of trying to put together and then govern with a three party coalition from opposite sides of the political spectrum.
EURUSD is back to square one after failing to hold 1.05+
Modest bounce in USDJPY but still below 150
European and US stocks up
Gold up modestly
Light data day
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Dollar is firmer after yesterday’s sell-off
Led by USDJPY which had bounced back above 150 but remains below yesterday’s 150.91 breakdown level.
Only news I have seen is a pushback by several officials on rising JGB yields (10 year hit a 15+ year high)
EURUSD backed off from 1.05 awaiting Sunday’s German elections…. 1.0450 = neutral while within 1.04-1.05
Stocks steady after yesterday’s sell offs.
Gold extended its retreat from yesterday from a new record high but so far contained after testing 2918 support (low 2917).
Highlights:
Flash EZ and UK PMIs
Japan CPI (hotter but ignored)
See our Economic Calendar for upcoming US data
TGIF
XAUUSD – Gold
New day – new high – and again just marginally higher.
To explain about these marginally higher highs – what it means?
It means that there are no stops above it – once there are no stops ( orders) interest to move higher is fading .
Without some serious news/fundamental reason it is now going to be very difficult to push it further Up.
Once stops are placed below 2.900 , it is going to become very interesting to start bidding lower….
Then it is going to be interesting – is Support at 2.870 going to hold, or deeper correction will be on cards.
XAUUSD – GOLD 4h
Here comes one hypothetical situation – kind of training session…in real time and for real money.
Let’s say one is Long Gold , waiting to see his/her profit target at 3.000 ( stubborn one :D, and missed to take a profit at previous highs ( seen it three times close to 2950.00)
Now what to do?
First to calculate if trailing stop at 2900.00 might work for him/her.If not, a tricky job is in front of us – for Gold to continue Up and reach a new high, 2935.00 has to be taken out in next two ( 2 ) hours.
If not taken out and this bar closes below 2935.00 , next leg will be down ( 95% chance)
I said two days ago that Top on Gold is being formed – when it comes to tops , after such a prolonged rally ( started on January 1st of this year ) few pips up or down do not matter – what matters is a formation – pattern that repeats every time , and it is becoming clear that without a decent correction this Rally is no more….
Now the rule is : once you miss the exit point / profit target , you have to bail out at best , even if at the end it moves in your direction more then you expected – you cannot afford another mistake – one is already done .
So, watch closely how it develops in next two hours and if it doesn’t go over 2935.00 start acting – you have enough time to think till then.
If you can live with the trailing stop at 2900.00 you can take your chance and in case Gold closes tonight above it, there is a chance of another leg up with a possible target at 3010.00
As long as you can exit your position with the profit , do not risk to have a loss at the end because you are hoping for another chance.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP
Mixed USD, new record high for GOLD
EURUSD soft below 1.0450, EUR weak on crosses (e.g. vs  JPY,GBP)
USDJPY failed again above 152 but downside so far contained…US bond yields tick higher again
Highlights;
Trump vows 25% tariffs on imported cars, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips… deadline April 2
UK inflation hotter than expected
Trump push for Ukraine peace deal, tariffs unsettles Europe but DAX unfazed
