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With Gold taking a breather, the question asked in this article, which has stood the test of time ….
Is the Gold rally going to stop, and when?
XAUUSD DAILY CHARTT – WHEN WILL IT PAUISE?
XAUUSD is on a tear and surging again into fresh new record highs.
Trying to predict a top in gold is pure guesswork as it is in unchartered waters.
With that said, one potential level is 2450, the “50” level. If it fails to cause a pause then 2500 will be on the radar.
On the downside, former highs at 2417-30 need to hold to keep the strong bid.
USDX DAILY CHART – WHERE ARE THE FLOWS GOING?
While the US Dollar Index (USDX) closed about unchanged, the currency market traded mixed with EURUSD closing about unchanged, GBPUSD higher, and the CHF and JpY weaker. The star of the day was gold.
CLOSE VS PRIORÂ Â % CHANGE
EURUSDÂ Â 1..0869 VS 1.0865Â Â Â Â +.03
USDJPYÂ Â Â 155.65 VS 155.414Â Â Â Â Â +.15
GBPUSDÂ Â 1.2701 VS 1.2672Â Â Â Â Â +.22
USDCADÂ Â 1.3615 VS 1.3612Â Â Â Â Â -.02
AUDUSDÂ Â Â 6692 VS .6682Â Â Â Â Â Â +.16
USDCHFÂ Â .9092 VS .9061Â Â Â Â Â Â +.34
XAUUSDÂ Â Â 2515 VS 2377Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.55Do the math.
GBPJPY was the outperformer with GBPJPY coming in second.
XAUUSD outperformed all currencies with a wide margin and weakness in JpY and CHF suggests there might have been XAUJPY and XAUCHF carry trades involved.
BTC DAILY CHART – LAGGING BUT…
Since BTC trades over the weekend let’s see where the risk lies.
As I have noted many times, I look at round number levels like 60k, 65k, 70k
In this regard, if BTC can hold above 65K then the focus will turn to 70K
If not, then the choppy trade will continue.
So far, BTC has been lagging the move up in gold so see now if it tries to play catch-up.
US 10-YEAR TREASURY – NON-CORRELATION DAY
Note the price of bonds is inverse to the yield. 10-year is currently at 4.418%, the high of the day (low for the bond price)
If the forex market was correlating with the yield in bonds it would be a different story today but such is not the case.
Yields up, USD down gold up. stocks mixed.
Note USD was up earlier with firmer yields but has since decoupled.
This chart is using The Amazing Trader and what amazes me, and I created the charting algo, is how it performs with any instrument your broker offers and in any time frame.
