Viewing gains in EurJpy and Sterling as solid buy side waves against the larger sell side momentum. Hence am short against Yen again in Eur and Usd, while in on the sell side light in GbpUsd but not as confident in that one so observing intently. It appears my preference this week has been the risky venture of counter trading. Noting the yield and hoping it doesn’t decouple with Dxy like it has done more than usual in recent days.
It is only a 20 pip range so far, too tight to last. Price action is typical for the start of a quarter, especially this one after a 4 day weekend, as the market re-liquifies.
As the chart shows, 2 red AT lines drawn off the low indicate a shift in risk to the upside that has seen a move up but faces resistance at 1.0744.
Not seen on this chart, the gap in price after the ISM report yesterday is to 1.0772. The key target on the downside remains at 1.0694.
Note while steadying vs the dollar, EUR is trading soft on some of its crosses (e.g. eurgbp, eurcad)
If you are looking for the flow behind the EURUSD bounce (after pausing above 1.0760 support) and a dip in GBPUSD< look no further than this EURGBP chart and a reversal of the earlier dip..
Currently testig .8556 *resistance and trendime_– hoLding so faR
The closer to 8500 EurGbp gets the more the odds it reverses increase. It will either be that or a blow out run uphill. I am not sold on continuation at this point.
I am posting a 4-hour chart to show the key level at.8602
Offset GBP selling out of this cross is one reason why GBPUSD failed to test 1.2674 (cited earlier) – contact me if you want a further explanation of how this works. It also gave a bid to EURUSD, which has so far been unable to test 1.0868 (cited earlier) despite demand from this cross.
GBPUSD bounce off its 1.2574 low is so far just a retracement. To suggest a low is in, 1.2675 would need to be taken out, Currently, resistance at 1.2524 is being tested but this is only a minor level.
Note, EURGBP has backed off from .8600 and this has eased some of the selling pressure on GBPUSD.