[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD WEEKLY CHART – MOMENTUM BUILDS ON DOIWNSIDE BREAKDOWN

GBPUSD breakdown below 1.2499 saw a late end-of-the-week nosedive as shifting interest rate cut expectations weighed on it.

Note my post on Friday about EURGBP pressuring GBP down.

As you can see on this chart there is a void of key levels until just above 1.20. This leaves the most recent low as the nearest support.

Resistance starts around 1.2400-10 with a bear bias as long as it trades below 1.2499.

[GVI Forex 2]

Timely post below

EURGBP .8594
GBOUSD 1.2410

Path of least resistance is selling GBP, not buying EURUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART — KEY RESISTANCE

Shifting expectations of a sooner UK rate may be behind a softer GBP.

Key level is at .8586 (not seen on this chart)

Note offsets out of this cross are giving EURUSD some support while capping GBPUSD upside.

[SF Monedge]

Have been short GbpJpy and GbpChf from this mornings highs but have closed them here GbpChf 1337 and GbpJpy 192.30 although they may well drop further.

[SF Monedge]

Now to Euro crosses.  Barring something unique for recent time frames I am looking for EurGbp 8550 area to hold.

[SF Monedge]

JP – My plot dots are clustering Dxy 106.10.  That means this is it here for now for Usd (hence the rather risky Gbp purchase which is locked green) or one more pop to 106.20 for the battle to turn the tide again for a more suspended time.

[SF Monedge]

Gbp buyer from 2440/50 area and AudCad from 8848 bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP dips after BOE Gov Bailey says he expects a sharp drop in next months inflation report.

Offsets from GBP crosses giving EURUSD a lift and seeing USDJPY dip while GBPUSD dips
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Bitcoin drops to test 60k – chart to follow later
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US stocks down

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1.24-1.25?

GBPUSD is an outperformer today after CPI data (see our economic calendar) but the onus is on the bull side to take out 1.25 or remain mired in a 1.24-1.25 range.

Looking at this chart, the 1.2471 area would need to hold to keep a focus on 1.25.

[SF Monedge]

On the short side of EurChf all morning but notnig EurGbp showing signs of stabilization so seller profile is less robust

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 1 HOUR CHART =Another 34-year high

As noted here yesterday, 154.-155 is a sticky zone with the top end as a pivotal level and potential BoJ line in the sand.

So far the market is showing no fear of the BoJ and is again taking the path of least resistance by selling JPY on its crosses (e.g. EURJPY, GBPJPY) where the BpK is less likely to intervene,

For intra-day traders, look for the “50” level (154.50) to be pivotal in the days ahead in determining whther the market goes after 155.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY 1 HOUR CHART – PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

arket following the path of least resistance selling JPY, which is on its crosses where there is less chance of intervention.

GBP (along with AUD) has been the outperformer so far today (note EURGBP is lower as well)

The key level is clear at 192.92

Straight line move-up today means you need to go to shorter time frame charts to find support levels.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART

GBPUSD has been a modest outperformer, supported by some of its crosses (GBPUSD, EURGBP)

The closest key resistance is at 1.2709 (void above it until 1.2803) and maintains a bid as long as it trades above 1.2648-63.

With that said, it will be a new ball game after the US CPI but after last Friday’s aborted reaction to the strong US jobs report, it is hard to have confidence in the first knee-jerk reaction and may pay to let the dust settle unless there is a big surprise on the data.

[SF Monedge]

Price behavior is suggesting to me that GbpUsd selling abates heading into the 2660/40 area for the day.

[SF Monedge]

Expecting Dxy 104.25 to hold and catch a bid heading into next week barring something dramatic.  So sell Eur and Gbp on bid waves is what I expect.  Fundamentals could change that equation of course.

[SF Monedge]

Bobby from here out I shall refer to you as “my heavenly father.”  Side note, have sell side orders Gbp/Usd 2620/30 area.

[SF Monedge]

See Usd/Cad being a bit under pressure remainder of month and Gbp/Usd likely trying to hold a bid remainder of month.  Aud/Usd is dropping but Aud/Cad is not, will be testing the buy side at or just under 8900 Aud/Cad if it catches the offer and gets there (likely will not occur until next week).  Fundamentals reasonably support.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Close tonight bellow 1.26100 would set up a very Bearish tone for the next week.

However, close above 1.26250 would call for a run over 1.27000

[SF Monedge]

Apology if too many posts, attempting to be of help.  Took the money here on the UsdJpy sell at 151.52 bid due to the odds of the 10yr yield holding around here and looking to be on the sell side again higher up.  Have trailing sell stop for entry regardless should BoJ get an idea.   Gbp sell is from above current market nearer to the figure.

[SF Monedge]

Also of note GbpUsd is “smack dab” (US redneck term) in the middle of its 10 day range, in absolute terms.