[GVI Forex 2]

The AT Alert in EURGBP (short) is still active and well in the black but needs another 10 pips on the downside to hit its target. In any case. it caught the shift in directional risk… scroll down to see video posted below

[SF Monedge]

Neural conditions in GbpUsd are decidedly weighted toward the sell side right now.   If the pair is trying to find value higher than current market I think it should run into a bit of trouble.  3250 is a bit of a price magnet.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – BOUNCE OFF THE LOW

If you are looking for the flow behind the GBPUSD bounce, look at EURGBP (lower).

Given the sharp move down yesterday, see below for retracement levels using our Fibonacci Calculator as potential resistance levels. In any case, 1.32 is pivotal (5-% at 1.3198) on the upside. Otherwise, roll the dice, NFP is up next..

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD 4h

Supports : 1.30900, 1.30000 & 1.29250

Resistances : 1.31350 , 1.31550 & 1.32350

Be aware that Cable is still within the Bullish Channel and being a Demon , do not be surprised if it hits Up even sharper then it fell down.

[SF Monedge]

US Data was only slightly disappointing.

Among the holidays today which include National No Sugar Day, National Poetry Day, Bring Your Bible To School Day, and National Wide Awake Day, it is officially National Buy British Day.  That certainly must support my earlier observation about some metrics and neural conditions being strong on the buy side of GbpUsd.

So that pair simply must go up.

[SF Monedge]

Some neural conditions show strength on the buy side in GbpUsd headed into the data.  Not to say it won’t see selling along the way post-data but that is the condition.

[SF Monedge]

If GbpUsd 3250 survives the pair is likely going up fairly well looking out a bit.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Bounce from MVA

Having bounced from its 100 period MVA (low 1.3237), GBPUSD would need to move back above 1.3310 to regain a bid.

Otherwise, downside likely limited unless sub-=1.3250 trades again.

[Mtl JP]

market things spiking
as headlines saying iran sending missiles at israel

crude uP, euro down 1.1050, gold uP, gbpusd down,
dlrx 101.08

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.32700 , 1.32450 & 1.31850

Resistances : 1.33450 , 1.33600 & 1.33850

Bullish angle has been lost, and only question is if this is going to be a correctional phase or full blown downtrend.

Monthly and weekly charts are more in favour of a correction and continuation of the Uptrend later on.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Tests key support

EURUSD leading, GBPUSD following with a lag (note EURGBP)

1.3310 tested and remains key support.

Back above 1.3350-69 would be needed to deflect the risk.

As noted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook</a>

On the downside, 1.3310 is the make or break level, keeping the risk on the high while above it.

Logic says for GBPUSD to make a serious break to a new high, EURUSD would need to establish above 1.12 and/or EURGBP would need to make another leg down.

[GVI Forex 2]

Why did EURUSD hit the skids while GBPUSD is keeping a bid (see below)…. I gave the clue what cross to watch

Watch now the 4 PM London fixing coming up soon

EURGBP 15 Minute Chart’

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.33650 , 1.33450 & 1.33100

Resistances : 1.34250 , 1.34350 & 1.34950

Cable is struggling for 5 days already with the top and using some Thumb analysis we can expect start of a correction, unless it takes out today 1.34350.

However, Close tonight above 1.33850 would leave an opportunity for one more leg Up and test of 1.34950.

[GVI Forex 2]

I call it a fickle pickle month end trading

EURGBP .8354 => .8343=> .8360=> .8345

EURUSD backed off from 1.12 as EURGBP slipped (still well within it day range)

[GVI Forex 2]

Simple definition of fickle: likely to change

EURGBP .8343,GBPUSD back above 1.34, EURUSD lags

[GVI Forex 2]

Month end:

GBPUSD so far failing to hold 1.34+ after EURUSD test of 1.12+ failed to hold,

EURGBP still has a bid (last .8354), at least for now bit as I said, this cross can often be fickle due to month end flows..

[GVI Forex 2]

One observation I have made for month end is that EURGBP flows can be quite active and often fickle, influencing GBPUD, EURUSD or both (currently giving EURUSD some support).

EURGBP 3o MINUTE CHART

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART _ Month end or more?

Bounce from 1.3373 double bottom

As posted in our Weekly FX Chart Outlook

GBPUSD remains an outperformer, trading at a level not seen since early 2022.

With the next key level not until above 1.37, use the most recent high (1.3434) as key resistance.

On the downside, 1.3310 is the make or break level, keeping the risk on the high while above it.

Logic says for GBPUSD to make a serious break to a new high, EURUSD would need to establish above 1.12 and/or EURGBP would need to make another leg down.

 

[SF Monedge]

Food for thought.

1.      Why would you pay attention to a “bias indicator” based on the total of retail customers of a brokers client base knowing the vast majority of retail traders are wrong and lose their money?  Nice gimmick.

2.      A well known and highly frequented  FX “advisor” frequently quoted in news feeds, primarily to retail audience noted very early this morning before the action really hit that “UsdChf is trading flat, best to stay away.”  Why?  Would it not be better to learn how and why to be active in it successfully?  The pair dropped over 100 points in a short period of time.  They don’t know what they are doing beyond  average in my opinion.  They do have solid informational value if you are novice.

3.      Why would you not listen to a highly skilled and very kind former bank Trader like Jay Meisler instead?  Or a former in demand CTA such as myself or the other actual and very skilled former bank traders who frequently post here in GVI?

I sold UsdJpy right before it collapsed last night in late Asia.  I have been long AudUsd since yesterday.  I have been short UsdChf since yesterday against a lot of opinions to be long US Dollar.  I have been long GbpUsd since yesterday.  Picking away at EurJpy on both sides the entire way.  You won’t find that with Youtube or TikTok gurus or the aforementioned not as stellar as advertised advisory sources which are popular.

You will find it here in GVI.

Disclaimer – I am not paid by GVI or under contract with GVI in any fashion.  I am simply commenting in the hope of being helpful and enjoy the input from others here.

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s see if I can sum it up

Bigger reaction in FX than in rate expectation (52/48 for a 50bps rate cut)

EURUSD: Tepid test of 1.12
GBPUSDL Paused below its 1.3434 high
USDJPY: Extended its overnight low to 142.50
AUDUSD: New high