[GVI Forex 2]

It is worth revisiting this article

If I told you that there was a large order in the market to buy EUR and sell GBP would you be looking to sell EURUSD and buy GBPUSD, do the opposite or step aside as the order gets executed?

How You Can Use Currency Crosses to Trade Spot Forex

[GVI Forex 2]

Look at GBPJPY… as well as EURGBP

Like being a forex detective identifying flows driving the market

[GVI Forex 2]

And now the saga continues

EURGBP firms… .8313 => .8326

GBPUSD slips… 1.3065 => 1.3044

EURUSD back up to 1.0860 after dip did not reach 1.0850

Hint: When 2 currencies move in opposite directions it is a clue there is a real money flow in a cross.

[GVI Forex 2]

So let’s summarize the price action… I know this is just one flow but has impacted both spot pairs

EURGBP extended its bounce from .8295 to .8323

EURUSD firmed and GBPUSD followed with a lag

EURGBP stalled below .8325 (thanks to The Amazing Trader for that level) and then slipped back

GBPUSD firmed as the cross slipped

EURUSD barely moved

EURGBP did not go far on the downside, GBPUSD lost its cross bid, EURUSD slipped back with a lag

Sounds like a puzzle… this is using crosses to trade Spot101

Contact me jay@localhost if you want a further explanation

[GVI Forex 2]

Friday book squaring

EURUSD bounce would need to recover 1.0873+ or focus stays on 1,0850

Note EURGBP bounce stalled below .8325 (last .8313)

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

Chinese sentiment lifted overnight whilst European markets are tentative and choppy thus far

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

European bourses mixed/firmer given China tailwinds; NQ +0.5%, driven by NFLX +5%

USD is broadly softer vs peers, GBP outperforms after Retail data, Antipodeans benefit from China data & PBoC musings

Fixed benchmarks relatively contained, Gilts initially hit on data while EGBs & USTs attempt to move higher

Choppy trade for Crude into a weekend of potential geopolitical risk. Metals glean support from China

Chinese sentiment was eventually lifted after comments from PBoC Governor Pan who reiterated that they could cut RRR further this year and noted expectations for a 20bps-25bps reduction in the Loan Prime Rates on Monday.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – WHAT’S HOT AND WHAT’S NOT

What’s not: Not EURGBP which extended its low (by 5 pips) to .8295 before a quick bounce back.

On the upside, intra-day resistance start at .8325, upside limited while below it.

As I have been noting, this cross can be used as a EUR strength/weakness indicator with an influence on both EURUSD and GBPUSD.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP REMAIN ONE OF MY KEY EURUSD INDICATORS… LAST AT .8320…LAST SUPPORT BLOICKING THE KEY 8300 LOW IS AT 8318

[GVI Forex 2]

EURO remains the weak link in the dollar chain.

As I have bee posting, below 1.0881 (and now 1.0850) exposes 1.08 and a 1.0777 target.

EUR is also weak on its crosses, EURGBP last at .8326.

I read an article recently that a bank said EUR may be used as a favored funding currency rather than JPY or CHF.

[GVI Forex 2]

Here are your pivotal levels

eurusd 1.0850

usdjpy 150

gbpusd 1.30

usdcad 1.3750 and 1.3800

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

After ECB decision

Supports : 1.29750 , 1.28650 & 1.27400

Resistances : 1.30300 , 1.30850 & 1.31750

If it closes tonight above 1.30500 we’ll be seeing a turn to the Upper side.

For continuation of the downtrend – needs to close below 1.29750

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Tests downside

What a difference a day makes. At this time yesterday EURGBP was bid following tame UK CPI and now it is offered ahead of the ECB.

So while EURUSD has bounced a tocch from 1.0850, GBPUSD is up more off its low.

Key supports .8325-18-00

.8350 can be used as a EUR indicator.

[GVI Forex 2]

SSF, whatever works for you and we are all here to learn. I look at EURGBP to give a clue to EURUSD and GBPUDSD

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, there is not a disconnect but EURGBP seeing GBPUSD fall and EURUSD lag as the cross rose post- UK CPI.

Since then, EURGBP, while still up on the day, came off its high, removing a support for the EURUSD.

No change in GBPUSD that ot upside is limited as long as it i below 1,3050.

Now market will start looking ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

[SF Monedge]

Jay in my view the reason there is a disconnect with Euro and Gbp is stocks this time.  You could see it yesterday when money was moving into Russel but nowhere else, today it is Dow.  Euro moves with Dow not S&P.  It is why I was short Sterling yesterday.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 5 Minute Chart – Held support

You can see by this chart why I posted “Support at 1.3010 blocks a return to 1.30 or below” (see prior post)

You can also see why I keep highlighting The Amazing Trader and it uncanny ability to identify key chart levels and patterns to trade

[GVI Forex 2]

Logic says that after the sharp drop in GBPUSD post-CPI there should be offers by those caught out and hoping for a bounce.

For me, the upside is limited unless 1.3050+ trades.

Support at 1.3010 blocks a return to 1.30 or below.

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.29800 , 1.28750 & 1.27350

Resistances : 1.30800 , 1.31050 & 1.31750

If it doesn’t break 1.29800 within next 24h, we’ll be in for a sharp turn UP.

1.31050 still the Major point on the Upper side.

Pattern – Time Wise : this can be an ideal situation for the counter move – I am not saying it is going to happen for sure, but be aware !

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk’s NY Open report (full report and podcast available for subcsribers)

Sentiment hit by poor tech and luxury earnings; Gilts fuelled by softer CPI

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

(Click below to read the full report and listen to the guys doing the podcast).

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are mostly lower, with sentiment hit following poor LVMH/ASML results; the FTSE 100 leads after the region’s cooler-than-expected inflation metrics.

Dollar is flat, GBP is the clear underperformer after headline/services inflation figures declined more than expected.

Bonds continue to build on the prior day’s gains, with upside also fuelled by the aforementioned UK CPI report, which has led to clear outperformance in Gilts.

Crude is modestly lower, XAU/base metals both gain.
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[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – NEWS MATTERS

The reaction to the weaker UK CPI has seen EURUGBP spike higher after failing to reach .8300-18, suggesting the bottom is in for now.

Key levels are at .8404 and .8434 so damage not yet fatal but certainly caught the shorts (ahead of the ECB) wrongfooted.

If you are wondering why EURUSD is lagging, look at this cross.