[ST London]

Weekend musings

We wanted to buy the EurUd dip (but never felt that we had reached a level that we were extremely confident of a genuine bottom)

However it is possible we reached one in Cable. If so then the surprise trade would be to move back through theUsd moveto some half way point before reassessing

That is why I just said the EurUsd and GbpUsd could move 200 pips back up but did not infer nor include UsdJpy in that

UsdJpy was bid up on a spurious conjecture that the US would no longer drop rates or would only do 1/4. (It has to be said the dot plot never suggested a 1/2 anyway but the stock market wanted an excuse whether it need one or not

So add in the political climate (in Japan) where the gamble of a snap election has just as it did in the UK failed dramatically and we have the ingredients of uncertainty where anything short(ish) term in UsdJpy could happen. why not a 4 or 500 pip range in one day ?

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Now leave the numbers and trend lines aside for a moment – this is experience and Pattern recognition talking :

–          The Demon made an extended new low

–          Came back Up with the vengeance

–          If it takes out 1.30000 it will fly

–          Not your typical Bear trap, but close enough

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP ONE HOUR

Unwinding of EURGBP creating sort of a tug of war between EURUSD (off its high) and GBPUSD (higher)… EURGBP support zone .8353-73

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR – THE MORNING AFTER

GBP crosses recovering (EURGBP, GBPJPY) giving some support to GBPUSD.

EURGBP .8404 was a mini breakout level yesterday so back below it would be needed to shift the focus to .8360.

Downside would be contained if .8400-05 holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR NFP

Market is biding its time waiting for the US jobs report,

A sharp price in EURGBP yesterday helped give EURUSD a bid and it has backed off today as the cross eased back.

1.09 should be tough on top, back below 10840-50 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.08,

Oct NFP:

A weak jobs # is expected following a sharp rise in Sept BUT NFP will likely be distorted by the hurricanes and strikes,

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 MONTH – NEW MONTH, NEW BALL GAME?

GBP sold off yesterday on a plunge in the bond market (higher yields) and today it seems to be benefiting from the higher yields. So price action suggests month end flows may have been a factor in the ell off.

Whatever the case, it was a straight line move from 1.2999 to 1.2851.

For today 1.2880-85 needs to hold to keep the bid.

On the upside, no resistance other than the day high so treating the move up as a retracement, use FIBOS as possible levels

From our Fibonacci Calculator

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Safe haven

JPY benefiting from some safe haven flows and from GBPJPY longs being unwoiund.

1.5144 = key support, below it puts 150 back on the table

Above 153 is needed to ease a downside risk

While within 151-153 look for 152 to set the tone

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 5 MINUTE CHART – POWER OF 50

in the absence of nearby support, 1.2950 is checking the freefall. Res at the former 1.2995 support.

Time to revisit this popular blog article

My Favorite Trading Secret: The Power of the “50” Level

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1.2865

While EURGBP ha been helping to drive GBPUSD down, the biggest move has been in GBPJPY.’
‘
Charts show little below the market so use 1.2850 and 1.2800 a potential supports.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – BONDS SLIDE, GBP FOLLOWS

 

I said keep an eye on EURGBP for month end but did not expect the bond vigilante to attack and see that pPIll over to the GBP.

Either that or it is month end flows but whatever the case, the Oct high at .8434 and Sept high at 8463 are at risk  should .8505 become support.

[GVI Forex 2]

Gilt yields spiking higher… GBP reacting but negatively

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed reaction to US data

Month end flows seem to be dominating

Note EURGBP .8388 resistance close to tested

Offests helping to push EURUSD to a new high, now above its 200 DMA

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Supports : 1.29750 , 1.29400 & 1.29150

Resistances : 1.30000 , 1.30400 & 1.30650

Scenario Bullish :

–          Cable needs to overcome 1.30500 in next 48h and to stay above it

–          Support at 1.29400 must not be broken

–          Upticks would change to Up moves ( higher highs, but also higher lows )

Scenario Bearish :

–          Resistance at 1.30400 holds and moves lower to 1.30200

–          Support at 1.29400 lost

–          New low reached – below 1.29050

Right now both scenarios are possible based on the Pattern .

If we close tonight above 1.29800 probability will rise in a favour of Bullish scenario.

[GVI Forex 2]

UK gilts yields sharply higher. Could be a reaction to yesterday’s UK budget but in any case, what is glaring is that higher yields are not helping the GBP  as yet but bears watching..

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MONTH END

What caught my eye is GBPUSD holding the 1.2939 support again, helped by .EURGBP backing off its high.

Note what I posted about EURGBP and month end,

Otherwise,  2 week range 1.2907-1.3057 (see arrow)

1.30 is clearly the pivotal level.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – REVERAL OF FORTUNE

I feel like a parrot repeating to keep an eye on EURGBP if trading EURUSD and/or GBPUSD.

EURGBP’s  rebound from a failure to test .8295 yesterday, which lifted EURUSD while ultimately weighing on GBP{USD,  would need to take out .8380-88 to expose .8405.

Otherwise, look for .8350 to remain pivotal in setting the tone while it trade .8300-.8400..

Month end

EURGBP tends to be one of the more active month end flows, often on both sides at different times, so keep an eye on it Thursday, including its impact on EURUSD and GBPUSD.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART PATTERN BROKEN

The break of a 5 day pattern where 1.08 traded each day is a bullish indicator but with some caution as demand seemed to come more from its crosseS, specifically EURGBP, than vs the USD

1.0971=73, the 200 day mva and key resistance.is A tough obstacle to 1.09.

Otherwise, would need to stay above 1.0839 to keep a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP 1.0871 is the 200 day mva, just below key 1.0873 res.

GBPUSD is the weak link in EURGBP buying (last .8374) while EURUSD remains bid out of the cross.. next res is a key one at .8383

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP remain a driver as buying interest resumed.

Tested .8366 (cited earlier)

Supporting EURUSD, pushing GBPUSD back below 1.30.

Bond yield reversing and popping higher, led by UK gilts

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

The Devil at it’s best…now it all look quite natural and reasonable, but on smaller time frames it is a mess.

1.30650 is the Major Obstacle now.

To be certain that we have turned Up, I would like to see it above 1.31