[Mtl JP]

9:13am’s “Lagging EURUSD as EURGBP” — do u look at the EZ/UK spread ?

[GVI Forex 2]

Pivotal level day

EURUSD -.1.05 clearly pivotal after brief break below it (low 1.0488)

AUDUSD – .6350 is pivotal after brief break of major .6358 support (low .6340)

USDJPY 151.50 nand 152 are both pivotal, so far staying below it after trading above it yesterday

GBPUSD- Lagging EURUSD as EURGBP remain soft biut 1.2750 is pivotal here as well

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 15 MINUTE – EURGBP driving the bus

Another neat Amazing Trader chart

Algebra 101

EURUSD held 1.05 – for EURGBP to go lower, GBPUSD had to do the work.

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, you should differentiate between a longer term view and day trading.

Re GBP, keep watching EURGBP (last .8241) for a flow keeping a bid under GBPUSD

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP .8250…breakout below .8267… leaves a void so…

WATCH .8250 TO DICTATE WHAT COMES NEXT

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a heatmap

USD is up as market seems to be biding its time ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI

EURUSD still within 1.05-1.06 where Power of 1.0550 sets the bias

USDJPY found support above 150.77… needs to stay above 151.21 to keep a strong bid but t52 a potential obstacle

GBPUSD lagging… note weeaker EURGBP

USDCAD broke its 1.4178 key high but so far not following through

AUDUSD an underperformer (NZDUSD as well), falling after RBA but holding above Monday’s .6372 low

[SF Monedge]

UsdSingapore and UsdHong Kong are laboring and I believe it is due to money flowing into US stocks and out of Bonds since institutions expectedly took their shot in that one last week.  For now.

Although Usd is laboring against those cross pairs I am not seeing carryover into EurGbp or EurChf like there is in the majors and so am not yet enthused about the buy side there.  Would need to see more.  Money is flowing into those two but the horizon is under pressure.

[GVI Forex 2]

The first thing I do when starting my day is to look at my platform as sort of a heatmap to see the winners and losers as well as the price action overnight.

AUDUSD so far is the winner (ahead of RBA)

USDJPY is firmer above 150 but…

GBPUSD is the 2nd winner
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[SF Monedge]

That was intense algo price changes in Euro crosses on the data.  I see EurGbp continuing to move down away from 8300 and would love to see one more little pop toward it so I can add.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART –  WHY IS THE EURUSD BID

If you look at various EUR crosses it will give you a clue why RURUSDD is bid.

The most obvious is EURGBP but if you fig deeper , look at others such as EURBTC (BTCUSD last at 98300 after hitting a record high at 104000 while EURUSD is near its high for the day).

I am not privy to the flows other than flows other than observi8ng short EUR positions being unwound.

Chart wise, key levels are at 1.0550 and 1.0610 but watch its crosses for a clue..,

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Look at long JPY crosses unwinding for a source of EURUSD and to a lesser extent GBPUSD demand… test for EURUSD will come when unwinding is done

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

US futures tilt higher ahead of Powell & European paper awaits French no confidence vote

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are mostly trading in positive territory; US futures tilt higher ahead of Powell and a busy data slate.

USD is broadly firmer vs. peers, AUD lags post-GDP, and GBP was weighed on by commentary from BoE’s Bailey who said he sees four 25bps cuts in 2025; a move which has since pared.

European paper awaits French no confidence vote at 15:00 GMT.

Crude holds an upward bias, WSJ reports that Saudi aims to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share; XAU/base metals are subdued amid the slightly firmer dollar.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform like a heatmap shows JPY and AUD as the biggest losers., Unwinding of long JPY crosses likely helping to keep EURUSD pinned at 1.05 and some support to GBP as well in what is a generally up day for the USD ahead of key events.

 

[SF Monedge]

Michael – regarding your post on bias shift in Euro, not today in my view but I see growing conditions for that to filter in as soon as tomorrow, I posted this yesterday …. “I see some conditions that point toward EurGbp pulling up toward 8400 in coming days”.

The cross is doing it just not the major yet.

[SF Monedge]

EurGbp is entering overdone activity at 8312 in my view even if temporary.

[GVI Forex 2]

SF, that would imply either or a sharply lower GBPUSD or a little of both…. Freench politics is the wild card

[SF Monedge]

I see some conditions that point toward EurGbp pulling up toward 8400 in coming days.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Key support looms

Keep an eye on EURGBP as an indicator of EUR weakness, with offsets keeping a bid under GB{USD

Now approaching a major support at .8267. below sees a clear path for .8200 other than the pivotal .8250 level.

Only back above .8300-05 would postpone the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP buying. EURGBP selling at month end fixing

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Month end

Finds a bid IF it can stay above 1.0550 but would need to break 1.0610 to make this more than a retracvement, note the word IF

Note this is month end (and not a normal one due to the US quasi holiday) where EURGBP flows are often an influence so keep an eye on this cross.