[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHATRT – ON THE DERFENSIVE AGAIN

Last week’[s rally proved to be short-lived and now dependent on the .8250 area holding or risk shifts to the .8223 low.

Watch this cross as it is one flow giving GB{PUSD a bid and ca[p[ping the EURUSD upside.

[SF Monedge]

I am expecting EurGbp and EurChf to begin forming a bottom but likely not until slightly lower levels are reached.

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEM

GBP benefits from hot UK wages data, DXY bid amid a tepid risk tone ahead of US Retail Sales

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are mostly in the red, but sentiment has improved a touch since the cash open; US futures modestly lower.

DXY back above 107.00, GBP posted early gains after hot wages data.

Gilts lag as UK wage data essentially removes any chance of a Dec. BoE cut ahead of CPI; USTs a little lower ahead of US Retail Sales.

Commodities succumb to the tepid risk tone and ongoing USD strength.

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[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Hot, Hot, Hot

GBPUSD getting a lift after hotter increase in wages in the monthly jobs report dampened expectations of a rate cut at Thursday’s BOE meeting.

To make this more than a retracement, 1.2788 would nheed to be taken out.

Watch GBP crosses, most notably a weaker EURGBP, as they are helping to give GBPUSD a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD getting a lift out of its crosses but key levels are distant, not until 1.2810 amd 1.2820 (00 day mva)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY DAILY CHART  Trendline Alert

GBPJPY remains the flavor of the day but EURJPY getting another lift as well and testing its KEY DAILY TRENDLINE

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

US Market Open: Tepid risk tone weighs on European indices, DXY flat ahead of US PMIs

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are mostly lower; US futures are modestly in the green.

DXY is flat, and GBP strengthens post-PMI while the JPY lags a touch.

EGBs softer with OATs underperforming slightly post-Moody’s downgrade, PMIs in focus.

Crude slips amid a tepid risk tone, metals largely contained.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a heatmap shows modest moves so far with GBP and CHF (odd bedfellows) outperforming, EURUSD showing little change, and USDJPY up a touch while  JPY is weaker on crosses.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – 1;05 PATTERN EXTENDED

1.05, which traded Tuesday-Friday last week, has been extended to 5 days in a row on Monday. Range is limited while this pattern continues but the longer it goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken.

This is similar to the recent USDJPY pattern around 150 and you can see what happened after that pattern was broken,

In the meantime, there is a double top at 1.0524 ahead of resistance at 1.0531-39.

On the downside, 1.0480 blocks last week’s 1.0453 low.

nOTE, THE 2 PILLARS OF EURUSD SUPPORT WERE EURGBP AND EURJPY. EURGBP is weaker today so more of a weight on EURUSD than support. EURJPY is still trading with a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD DAILY CHART – GBP Under Fire

GBP remains under fire vs. EUR, pressures GBP{USD

A firm freak of 1.2617 would leaves little until the major 1.2467

[GVI Forex 2]

Simple algebras

EURJPY = USDJPY X EURUSD

USDJPY stalls on upside, only way for EURJPY to move higher is then via a firmer EURUSD

EURGBP = EURUSD/GBPUSD

GBPUSD stalls on downside, only way for EURJPY to move higher is via a firmer EURUSD

EURUSD LAST AT 1.0518 (FIRMER)… BUT STILL BELOW THE 1.0530-40 RESISTANCE… TEST FOR EURUSD WILL BE WHETHER IT CAN KEEP A BID ONCE ITS DROSSES TOP OUT…. A test it failed yesterday in a similar situation

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

Risk sentiment improves with havens on the backfoot, DXY around 107.00

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses and US futures are generally firmer with specifics light, diverging from soft APAC trade; AVGO +15%.

DXY trades around 107.00, GBP hit by soft GDP, JPY lags.

Fixed benchmarks in the red post-ECB and ahead of a blockbuster week.

Commodities contained, focus remains on geopols after Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and Blinken comments.

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[GVI Forex 2]

First thing I do when starting my day is to treat my platform as a heatmap to see where flows are going.

EURUSD steady as EUR up on key crosses (vs. GBP, JPY, CHF)

GBPUSD down – 2nd consecutive month of negative GDP

US bond yields steady but up sharply on the week… USDJPY and USDCHF up

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP .8264 => EURUSD 1.0487 (lost the cross related bid)

iT SOUNDS LIKE A MERRY-GO-ROUND AND IN FACT IT IS.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Guess who was driving the bus

Real money orde –– see if EURUSD loses its bid once the order is filled

EURUSD POPPED ON CROSS RELATED BUYING => GBPUSD FOLLOWED AND THEN GOT SMACKED DOWN ONCE EURUSD MET RESISTANFCE

1.0520 => 1.0500

1.2736 => 1.2697

EURGBP .8258 => .8270

[GVI Forex 2]

Here we go again…Look for the puzzle pieces

This time EURGBP firmed (.8256 vs .8225 low yesterday)… giving some support to EURUSD while weighing on GBPUSD)… EURUSD just popped to 1.05

[GVI Forex 2]

US yields tick back up but below earlier highs,,, USD follows but EURUSD above earlier low,,, this time GBP is leading EUR (EURGBP firmer)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP MONTHLY CHART – Indicator of EUR weakness

Those who have followed me have seen me say to watch EURGBP for clues if trading EURUSD and/or GBPUSD

Break of .8267 opens the door for the major level at .8200… As this chart shows, .8200 is a 7-year low.

Back above .8250-67 would be needed to postpone the risk

Minor support is at .8225, Wednesday’s low.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD would need to get back above 1.0508 to suggest the low is in for today… Otherwise the levels I cited earlier at 1.0472 and 1.0457 are in play.

If you look at EURGBP (,8228) it is as much EUR weakness than USD strength.

In any case, upside is limited as long as it stays below 1.05.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0501: Traded technically with stall 2 pips shy of 1.0539 and then baCK TO 1.05- focus will shift to ECB tomorrow

USDJPY back to 152

eurgbp EXTENDS LOW TO .8230… GBPUSD LAgs, EURUSD leads

BoC on deck