[GVI Forex 2]

As I noted today would likely be driven by thin liquidity, book squaring and position adjustments ahead of the holiday week. GBP and JPY have been beneficiaries, EUR, stocks and GOLD as well.

[GVI Forex 2]

Now it comes down to liquidty and end of week book squaring/position adjustments…. for EURUSD 1.04 is acting as a pivotal level… same for USDJPY 156.50 and GBPUSD 1.2550

Stocks catching a bid, note US500 bounce foff 5800.

[GVI Forex 2]

And in the US Trump wants to abolish the debt ceiling limit… at some point chickens will come home to roost but not until the bond vigilantes find their Mojo….

Meanwhile EURGBP .8278 … EURGBP 1.0387

[GVI Forex 2]

Do the math

eurusd 1.0492

gbpusd 1.2547

eurgbp .8282

See now if .8280 holds

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR CHART – Why it pays to pay attention to this cross

Double top at .8313… GBPUSD catches a bid as EURGBP retreats… EURUSD follows with A LAG

[GVI Forex 2]

News algos running a thin market… EURUSD high paused below 1.0420-25 resistance while GBPUSD leading as EURGBP retreats from .83+. causing the EURUSD lag

1.05 is pivotal in EURUSD

Next data Univ of Mich consumer sentiment

[GVI Forex 2]

All about positions, first before the hawkish Fed and then the not hawkish BOE

Positions getting squeezed

Long GBP (e.g. short EURGBP)
Long BTCUSD/Cryptos
Long Gold
Long Stocks
Less short EURUSD (meaning less ability to absorb selling)
Apparently long JPY

Markets don’t move this way when they get it right

Those who got blown away will pack it in for the holidays

Those who made out okay will bank their winnings and try not to give it back

Bottom line buy USD dips especially if there is a correction earlier in the day like today

Beware of further liquidations if those with vulnerable positions look to square up, which is typical at this time of year, ahead of a thin Xmas week.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD over4night low at 1.0344 untouched, GBPUSD key level 1.2486

[David Shepherd]

GBPUSD SELL AFTER A RETRACEMENT

[David Shepherd]

GBPUSD Sell after a retracement to the 50% of the previous huge candle

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – DOUBLE BOTTOM

BOE caught the market flatfooted and this is reflected in EURGBP, which bounced off the major .8223 low to form a double bottom

I like to use this cross to give a clue to EURUSD and GBPUSD, the former finding some support out of a EURGBP bounce while GBPUSD struggles trying to regain its bid.

As the chart shows, resistance is between .8270-00.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR THE BOE

GBPUSD retracing but only a break of 1.2720-28 would end the trend.

Note EURGBP held a test of its key .8223 low.

Next up BOE: No change is widely expected

[GVI Forex 2]

I posted this earlier

Treat EURUSD as a retracement as long as it stays below 1.0420-25

(Note EURUSD lagging GBPUSD… high was 1.0422… as EURGBP slips pre-BOE)

[GVI Forex 2]

While the BoJ may be lurking pressure on the USDJPY upside is coming out of its crosses…

WHICH ARE WEIGHING ON THE USD ELSEWHERE, LED BY GBP, WHICH IS BID AHEAD OF THE NO CHANGE IN RATES EXPECTED FROM THE BOE IN A FEW HOURS (GBPJPY IS +2% ON THE DAY)… Note EURJPY is up 2% as well (helps explain the EURUSD rebound)

Hint: When you see a big move in USDJPY there is generally a cross flow(S) helping to drive the move.

Hint: When you see two currencies moving in opposite directions vs. the dollar it is a sign of real money order flow buying/selling a cross.

[Idris Sagamu]

<img src=”https://global-test.financialmarkets.media/wp-content/uploads/hm_bbpui_temp/ejornpjuxtl8i2k75kv3tbij2rregood day

im going long on [GBPUSD] for the few after the news, they where imbalance bearish candle
price [FAILS ] to create new LL
RETRACEMNT NEEDEDl0tl.png” alt=”” />

[GVI Forex 2]

Stocks bounce higher +> bond yields tick up => USD firms… GBPUSD lags (EURGBP .8253)… or maybe USD is up ahead of a not dovish rate cut at the Fed meeting which would be one the first logical price moves seen this week.

[GVI Forex 2]

For those following EURGBP for clues the pop from .8250 reached .8272, below .8275-79 resistance… last at ,8263

[GVI Forex 2]

If you are lookjing for why GBPUSD just dipped…look at the pop in EURGBP off .8250…

[David Shepherd]

i took a buy on gbpjpy after the crossing of the ma and two bar comfirmation

[GVI Forex 2]

10-Year Bond Yield Snapshot

Yields up… UK yields supporting a GBP bid