[GVI Forex 2]

One flow I have noticed in past month ends involves EURGBP… it can be erratic (either way) so keep an eye on this cross, especially on the run up to the 4PM London fixing.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Pronounced risk off into ‘Liberation Day’, though crude remains underpinned on US-Iran relations

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.

6 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump is said to be pushing senior advisers to go bigger on tariff policy as they prepare for ‘Liberation Day’ on April 2nd; reportedly revived the idea of a flat universal tariff single rate on most imports.

European bourses and US futures in the red given the above and into month & quarter end, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%, ES -1.0%; NQ -1.3% with NVDA pressured.

DXY has been on either side of the unchanged mark throughout the morning, EUR and GBP flat/slightly softer while USD/JPY hit a 148.71 low as the Nikkei 225 entered correction territory.

Fixed benchmarks bid on the broad risk tone, German State CPIs sparked a fleeing move lower into the mainland figure, JGBs slipped as the BoJ cut its bond purchase amounts.

Crude firmer as geopolitical tensions outweigh the macro tone following reports around Trump on Iran, XAU at a fresh record high, base metals dented.

US President Trump threatened to bomb Iran if a nuclear deal can’t be reached, while he also warned of secondary tariffs on Russian oil.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Risk off… stocks down, bonds up, gold soars…and..

… dollar mixed.. JPY up on safe haven flows… AUD, CAD, NZD down.. EUR and GBP not far from unchanged

What caught my eye in EURUSD was a failure at 1.0850 (high 1.0849)

Looking ahead: German CPI, Chicago PMI… month/quarter end
… April 2 reciprocal tariffs

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, point taken… 3rd test now will tell the tale.

FWIW Not looking at EURUSD short side as loNg as EURGBP stays bid

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

.. the dollar trading firmer except vs. the JPY, a reversal of what wax seen at this time yesterday as mood turns to risk off  (and an unchanged GBPISD… weaker EURGBP)

What caught me eye:

USDJPY came within 10 pips of 151.30 and then went into retreat

EURUSD printed 1.08 (6th day in a row) but no higher

XAUUSD at a new record high

Tame EZ flash CPI

UK retaik salea beat

Looking ahead

Key data focus will be on US PCE

Monday is month/quarter end

Wednesday is reciprocal tariff day

Spring forward for clocks this weekend

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURGBP Daily

Resistances: 0.83400, 0.83550 & 0.83850

Supports: 0.83235, 0.83150 & 0.83050

Direction is Down

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY DAILY – Key resistance cited

Chart: Positive but faces a key resistance at 151.30, which stays at risk while above 150.50-60.

Note weak JPY crosses (e.g. firmer GBPJPY) adding to USDJPY demand’

I have not seen any specific news to account for the weaker JPY, which reminded me that March 31 is Japanese fiscal yearend.

I remember when this was a key time for FX and stocks but have not heard much talk about it in recent years. So, no clue whether this has been a factor but something to keep an eye on once March 31 passes.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

JPY selling order apparently not done… keep an eye on GBPJPY )leading) and EURJPY

As one of our members wrote just now, out of my radar range.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – BUY ORDER?

All we can do is guess by the price action what flow is driving the market.

In this regard, watch GBPJPY and whether it can hold 194.89.as buying has slowed

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPJPY DAILY CHART – BUY ORDER?

All we can do is guess by the price action what flow is driving the market.

In this regard, watch GBPJPY and whether it can hold 194.89.as buying has slowed

[GVI Forex 2]

I was just asked how do you know there is a real money sell order in the JPY?

My reply:; It’s like a tug-of-war with the USD caught in the middle

When yiou see 2 currenies move in oppodite directions vs the USD, (e.g. buying EUR and GBP, selling JPY)you can assume there is “real money” buy or sell  order in the cross.

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

European bourses hit on auto tariff rhetoric, DXY mixed vs peers while EGBs & USTs diverge

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 6 things you need to know for today’s market.t

6 Things You Need to Know

The US is to impose 25% tariffs on all cars made outside of the US effective on April 2nd

Trump reiterated that reciprocal tariffs are also set for next week but stated they will be lenient

Updates which weigh on European equities with Auto names lagging, US futures mixed/firmer

DXY mixed with GBP outperforming in an attempted recovery from Wednesday’s action while JPY lags

EGBs and USTs diverge as they focus on growth and inflationary implications of the latest rhetoric respectively

Crude benchmarks lower, TTF choppy, XAU gains and base metals slip

[Belgrade Bobby]

GBPUSD Daily

Resistances: 1.29100, 1.29300 & 1.29750

Supports:1.28750, 1.28600 & 1.28000

Pattern wise – tomorrow we should see another push down, but with possible uptick around 1.29050/100

For continuation of this down move I would like to see Cable going below 1.28600

[Adam Global]

GBP is 📉 losing again

Failed to break 1.300

now its on 78.6 fib

Might be heading to 1.2750

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US futures modestly lower amid tariff reports, GBP lags & EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

Tariffs in focus amid reports that Trump could implement copper tariffs in weeks, elsewhere reports that Canada could find some reprieve

European bourses opened firmer but have since slumped, US futures are in the red but only modestly so

GBP lags after UK CPI, EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08, USD/JPY rebounded overnight but is off highs

Gilts gapped higher on data and extended but have retreated to opening levels into the Spring Statement, USTs softer while Bunds are firmer but only modestly so

Crude continues to inch higher with a handful of factors underpinning, TTF slips as talks continue, Copper soared on tariff updates but has since pulled back

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY – 4 DAYS IN A ROW

1.08 has printed 4 days in a row… the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken (note what happened at 1.09).

Key supports: 1.0777 (double bottom) , 1.0765

Key resistance: 1.0830

See JP’s timely post about EURGBP topping out and how EURUSD lost its bid after.

[Mtl JP]

eurdlr 1.08011

the tease elements are that London is still playing, officially NY is not yet playing and eurgbp rally looks like it s done

[Mtl JP]

GVI … that HOT eurgbp is now cooling off from looks

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

… uncertain markets looking ahead to quarter end and reciprocal tariff day on April 2

Mixed USD

EURUSD focus still on 1.08 after another test of 1.0777 (2-day double bottom)… support coming fro a firmer EURGBP and lesser extent EURJPY

GBPUSD lower after cooler UK inflation (EURGBP firms)

USDJPY back above 150 after holding above 149.49 yesterday

USDCAD a touch weaker dezpite tariff uncertainty

U.S. stocks a touch weaker

XAUUSD in a wait and see mode

Looking ahead… light US data calendar, awaiting next Trump headline

[Mtl JP]

looks like overnite eurgbp has something to do with the euro