[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Resistances : 1.08900, 1.09100 & 1.09500

Supports: 1.08700, 1.08500 & 1.08200

EUR will try to continue Up, but this is just not a good situation for it.

I prefer waiting to see reaction on resistances / supports first, before deciding on intraday direction.

[Mtl JP]

EURO got slammed in tha last 8 minutes of trading

from 1.0882 to close at 1.0874

[Rafe]

Engines can be modified to run on alcoholic beverages which are dirt cheap to make in Europe,.. pennies for a few gallons… So the question of running out of the crude oil in the world is a moot point.

But with a 200% tariff on alcoholic products from Europe then maybe Americans may need to pay 3 dollars per gallon at the pump all over again… alcohol is a clean burning fuel and to prove it just try burning a scotch whiskey without first adding ice.

[Mtl JP]

Remember … german war toys manufacturers are uP some 200% since President Trump’s inauguration:

Beyond defence: Stocks set to gain from Germany’s economic revolution

… The CDU/CSU and SPD-led coalition unveiled a €500 billion off-budget infrastructure fund—equivalent to 11.6% of GDP in 2024—to be deployed over the next ten years …

[GVI Forex 2]

Well, alot of moving pieces going on…

U of M took some of the wind out of stocks but have since bounced back

USDJPY has backed off despite a risk on mood

EURUSD downside contained while above 1.0850.(note German yields have slipped from earlier highs)

No tariff tweets giving stocks some relief.

[Alex Lugano]

German stocks lead European shares rally after report of massive debt deal
Key points:

·         German debt deal needs two thirds majority for plans, vote slated for Tuesday

·         STOXX 600 up 0.8%, Germany’s DAX set to erase weekly losses

·         UMG falls after Ackman’s Pershing reduces its stake

·         Kering plunges after Gucci appoints Demna as artistic director

·         BMW falls on soft auto margin guidance for 2025

German shares led a broad rally in European stocks on Friday, after a report of a historic deal to raise state borrowing in the region’s largest economy.

The pan-continental STOXX 600  SXXP climbed 0.8% as of 1200 GMT, with banks (.SX7P) and defence stocks (.SXPARO) among the top gainers, jumping 1.9% and 2.9% respectively. Germany’s benchmark DAX  DAX rose 1.9%, erasing its losses for the week.

Conservative Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens on Friday on a massive increase in state borrowing ahead of a parliamentary vote next week, a source close to the negotiations told Reuters. A debt deal compromise was now being examined by finance ministry officials, parliamentary sources said.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

EUR has reached overnight target at 1.08350 ( low 1.08300) and rebounded sharply Up.

Resistances: 1.09150, 1.09300 & 1.09500

Supports: 1.08800, 1.08700 & 1.08550

Expect tests of supports in next 3h

Unless it goes below 1.08300 , it will continue up – so watch that level like a hawk.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MINUTE – Symmetric range

Current range is around 13 pips either side of 1.09 (1.0887-1.0913) … should be some bids below the market by those caught out by the debt news spike BUT on the other side, as the chart shows, it hit a wall at 1.09126

Feels like one of those Fridays unless Trump throws us another tweetstorm comment.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pops on this headline

 

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

As I have noted, when you see a sharp mkve in USDFJPY while others either lag or diverge, look for the offset currency.

IN this case, it appears to have been in AUD and NZD ad well as into EUR although a firmer EURGBP may be giving EURUSD some support.

Life in a mutti-currency centric (as opposed to a dollar-centric) trading world..

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Pattern proved right – as always – leg down.

Now in real trading, there are few rules while following these type of patterns:

–          Trade is active only during the given bar – no extensions or variations

–          Whatever profit is seen has to be taken – no hopes , no dreams

Now we have seen here 20 pips of profit, but seems like market has stopped for now.

Personally I take what I get – there is always another one to trade.

There is around hour and half left, but late in game….this is not exactly a good timing for trade.

If everything stays like it is right now till next bar, we’ll have another pattern , but one that gives bad probabilities : 50-50

That is because we don’t have a down trend, but a correction, so question is when is it going to turn up again….

This was just a real time example 😀

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Pattern recognition 😀

In about 10 min this bar will close and new one opens.

Close has to be below 1.08700

Based on my patterns, next move should be Down.

At least it should reach around 1.08350

Stop must be above 1.08850.

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0867 3x visit on the 5 min
anxiety moment for euro short

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DOUBLE TOP AT 1.0867.

Would need to take out 1.0876 to engate the downside risk,

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0857
–
S 1.0850/05 Res 1.0950

Dips towards S should hold, for now

[Alex Lugano]

Euro Could Fall as U.S. Recession Fears, German Fiscal Optimism Look Overdone 
The euro could weaken in the near-term after its recent rally on U.S. growth concerns and optimism over Germany’s fiscal spending plans, Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister says in a note. “The market has got a bit ahead of itself in its current assessment.” The U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession as some market participants fear, he says. Rather, growth should remain “quite strong” this year. Furthermore, Germany’s fiscal stimulus proposal probably won’t have an effect on the economy until next year at the earliest, he says. Commerzbank expects the euro to fall to $1.05 by the end of the second quarter from $1.0845 currently.

[Alex Lugano]

DAX Slides 1% as Trade War Escalates

Frankfurt’s DAX index extended its losses in afternoon trading, sliding 1% to 22,450, as escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU dampened investor sentiment.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European wines, champagnes, and other alcoholic beverages after the EU moved to slap a 50% tariff on American whiskey in retaliation for previous U.S. duties on European imports.

Meanwhile, concerns over prolonged conflict in Ukraine deepened after Russia dismissed the proposed U.S. ceasefire deal as merely a “temporary respite,” accusing Washington of imitating peace efforts.

Investors also remained cautious as the German parliament continued debating reforms to the country’s debt brake.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Previous Up trend lost.

Sideways consolidation is overtaken by serious Correction now.

Supports: 1.08200, 1.08050 & 1.07850

Resistances: 1.08600, 1.08750 & 1.08950

Pressure is to down side , with possible upticks towards 1.08600

[GVI Forex 2]

One ckue (flow) weighing on EURUSD if GBPUSD, down 100 pips from last week’s .8573 high.

[GVI Forex 2]

TRUMP STEPS UP TRADE WAR RHETORIC WITH THE EU… EURUSD DIPS TOWARDS 1.0850