[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.08 TRADES… 5 DAYS IN A ROW

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MINUTE CHART – Will 1.08 trade again?

As noted in the eek ahead and again yesterday, my view is to treat moves to the upside as retracements unless 1.0839 is firmly taken out.

See this chart and how the Amazing Trader resistance line held.

Now we see if 1.08 can exert a magnetic pull as it enters a 1.0800-10 support zone.

Note how EUR crosses have undercut the earlier EURUSD bid (e.g. EURJPY held resistance, EURGBP dips).

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Retests the high

JPY weakness following Japanese elections is providing offset support to currencies such as the EUR and GBP while upporting USDJPY.. Curious that AUD has not benefited.

As for EURJPY, yesterday’s 166.08 high has been re-tested and its significance is there is little on the upside for another 9-10 big figures. This makes 166,08 a key level.

Note this follows yesterday’s bounce from just above the bottom of the ipoening week gap.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – FOCUS ON 1.08

Current consolidation range is 1.0761-1.0839, a symmetric 39 pip range either side of 1.08.

1.08 has printed 4 days in a row coming into today… see if this pattern can be extended or broken.. a break of this type of pattern often sends a directional signal.

So, 1.08 is clearly pivotal and will dictate the tone going forward.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US OPEN

Equities lifted and oil sinks as traders digest Israel’s limited strike on Iran

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are on a firmer footing, traders garnering optimism following the relatively moderate Israeli attack on Iran, which saw the former avoid hitting energy/nuclear facilities; US futures also benefit.

USD is mixed, losing vs EUR & GBP but significantly stronger vs JPY after the Japanese general election which has seen the ruling coalition lose its parliamentary majority.

Bonds are pressured by the removal of geopolitical risk premia, but have lifted off lows in recent trade given the continued pressure in oil prices.

Crude gapped lower overnight and has continued to slip since the European cash open; Brent Jan’25 currently at lows of USD 71/bbl. XAU/base metals are also pressured.

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.08 PATTERN

EURUSD extending its trading pattern around 1.,08 to 4 days in a row a it consolidates above last week’s 1.0761 high.

To further highlight the 1.08 pattern, the current range is 39 pips either side of it (1.0761-1.0839)\

To suggest momentum for a run at 1.0761, 1.0782 swould need to be broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – MIND THE GAP

Opening week gap here as well to Friday’s 154.40iush close

Support starts at last week’s 155.02 high through 154,70 (today’s low).

Chart hows a big void above 155,02 so us today;s high as initial reistance.

Less chance to see BoJ intervening in EURJPY and buying of this cross may be one flow supporting the EURUSD>

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.079x friday close
–
(Bloomberg) — Oct 26, 2024
France’s credit rating was put on a negative outlook by Moody’s Ratings in the third warning in the space of two weeks over the deterioration of public finances and the political challenges in containing containing swollen budget deficits.

[SF Monedge]

A CTA in San Diego California (Southern California Naval Base and beautiful city) reminded me long ago that “markets overshoot.”  I am of the opinion that may apply to today’s price activity in some currencies but the dominant trend of say a week time frame has not been broken for them.  UsdChf  included, where the dominant trend is still the sell side even with the overshoot.

In my view EurUsd remains a buy and has not even overshot the trend yet.  I really hope Geo events do not change that because it would also mean stocks get pummeled along with a lot of people’s net stock worth.  Fridays tend to have that dynamic quite a bit.

[GVI Forex 2]

As I also said to JP, today wa a classic example of a currency 9EURUD) appearing to trade bid in an offered market.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0805

The possibility of a 1.08 and 1.079x print is there

follow-thru is another possibility but of low low probability

personally not feeling friski to test the theories
fwiw

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0807

refering to my 12:21

On the south side EUR 1.0800/10 should hold on the day

obviously, remains to be seen

below nwould trgt 1.0750 initially

[michael Calif]

re-post:    big picture:  time vibration is UP Euro, DOWN USD.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

JP and I were chatting offline about our short EURUSD positions

It started out with an AT Directional Indicator pattern indicating up episode was likely over and risk was shifting to the downside.

I said with no stops above EURUSD 1.0838 (only sellers), it seemed to be a matter of patience before moving lower using the logic that

Trend is down
‘
Once positions are trimmed/adjusted ahead of the weekend Who is going to go long EURUSD ahead of the weekend?

Just so this is not taken a a post in hindsight, I posted yesterday and again earlier to treat a move up as a retracement unless 1.0838 is firmly taken out.

[SF Monedge]

The best position of the day since the time horizon will run out on the buy side of everything versus Yen, Euro, Sterling, other would be the sell side of UsdChf.  Already short there and holding into the close.  Tremendous Geo risk at present.

I tend to have a smidge more insight in Geo  risk matters due to my background  than a lot of people but even simply being aware of what is crossing newswires you can see how dangerous the waters are at present.

[SF Monedge]

What is working for me since very early this morning pre-US stock open is the buy side of everything versus Yen.  I abandoned the EurUsd short from yesterday very early after weaving in and out of other pairs to make it whole but decided to not re-enter Euro.  I don’t expect the risk on attitude to stick as the session grows older.  There is immense Geo risk right now.

The euphoria is related to some earnings, Trump apparently body slamming Harris in financial sector/Executive/other polls and other conditions not economic related, because those numbers are not stable.

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD is bid but 1.30 still tough

EURUSD 1,0838 repelled

U of M consumer sentiment (final reading)… inflation expectation are usually a focus.. Note U of M is released to subscribers a few minutes for the pubic sees it

[Mtl JP]

Euro 1.0823
Overnite degenerate traders bit into 1.0837 Res and … pulled away (hahaha and applause to the “artists”)

On the south side EUR 1.0800/10 should hold on the day

To regain new up-momentum puppy will need to go N of 1.0875
while ECB suits yak about “measured cuts”

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

US futures are bid & DXY is flat ahead of US data & Fed speak

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses hold a slight positive tilt after initially opening on a modestly weaker footing; US futures are entirely in the green.

Dollar is flat ahead of Durable Goods, JPY was fairly unreactive to mixed Tokyo CPI.

USTs are flat but directionally in-fitting with the pressure seen in Bunds, sparked by strong German Ifo metrics
.
Crude is very modestly firmer but ultimately within a contained range, XAU/base metals are pressured.

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Not signed up to our squawk service yet?

Listen to our team of analysts broadcast the news that will impact the markets as it happens, and never be caught off guard again.

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Resistance holding

As noted a couple of times yesterday, treat the move up as a retracement unless 1.0838 is firmly taken out.

High so far 1.08374… dead on at an Amazing Trader resistance line

Otherwise, EURUSD keeps a bid while above 1.08 but runs the risk of a magnetic pull towards it if 1.0838 is not firmly taken out.

Just in case resistance level 1.0873