[Dora]

Sold EURUSD on approach at 1.08600 and placed profit target at 1.07950 – got 1.07926. I wasn’t looking at it during the data !

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.08600 held firmly

Now we should see tests of supports – 1.07950 target.

1.08300 resistance once again

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0833
I am biased: but so far short-term ambivalenet.

Res 1.0850 holding, break N of which would be necessary for push higher
Sup at 1.08, for now protecting a down-dump towords sub 1.0750

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!

Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.

5 Things You Need to Know

US President Trump reportedly plans his tariff ‘Liberation Day’ with a more targeted push, according to Bloomberg over the weekend.

STOXX 600 began the week on a firmer footing before trimming opening gains after a mixed APAC handover; EZ Flash PMIs were mixed and largely highlighted trade uncertainty.

DXY is lower after some choppy price action in early European trade. The macro narrative for the US has kicked the week off with a focus on the trade agenda.

USTs are lower amid the encouraging risk environment on account of weekend reporting over the Trump tariff agenda.

Crude prices are choppy. Benchmarks were lacklustre overnight amid the subdued risk appetite in Asia before trending higher in European hours; Precious and base metals hold mild upward biases.

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T

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

… week starting out in a risk on mood after Trump’s reciprocal tariff comments… As I have noted, while markets may react to the latest headline actions speak louder than words (April 2 is the reciprocal tariff day).

… the dollar is trading weaker but off earlier lows… exception is USDJPY but remains below 150

EURUSD came close but paused below 1.0860… See What is the trend in Forex Majors for coming week

EZ composite PMIs mixed (manufacturung up a touch (but below 50), Services down a touch (but above 50)… S

[Jay USA]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The week of March 24 brings a flood of critical economic indicators, with global flash PMIs offering early insight into how new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum are affecting European exporters. Germany, the EU’s top metals exporter, could see further pressure in its manufacturing readings. In the U.S., housing data may reflect a rebound from weather-related slowdowns, while regional Fed surveys and PCE inflation numbers provide updates on manufacturing health and price pressures. In Asia-Pacific, inflation figures from Australia and Japan will guide monetary policy, especially as core price trends remain under close scrutiny.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0830-ish suddenly
testing R and …. failing

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

Daily Supports: 1.07950, 1.07650 & 1.06300

Daily Resistances: 1.08300, 1.08600, 1.08900 & 1.09200

Weekly Supports: 1.07950, 1.07300 & 1.06650

Weekly Resistances: 1.09550, 1.10250 & 1.11700

Read more….

[Alex Lugano]

Barclays Weekly Insights

From uncertainty to multi-shock

As the US administration seems determined to impose high tariffs and ‘detox’ the domestic economy, US growth is set to slow sharply, with global spillovers. Effects from higher European investment will lag but could be significant. We expect the Fed, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold.
The Trump administration has expressed more tolerance for adverse economic fallout from tariffs than we had thought. We adjust our assumptions by incorporating softer trajectories for activity and a bigger upsurge in inflation in the US.
We lower our euro area growth forecast for 2025 as activity is set to decelerate further given US tariffs on EA exports. We still see the ECB’s depo rate reaching 1.5% by year-end.
In the UK, a weaker growth outlook, tariff uncertainty, and an easing labour market but rising inflation expectations provide a complicated backdrop to the MPC meeting.
We expect the Bank of Japan to keep its “on track” assessment of growth and inflation, but take time to gauge the effect of its January rate hike as well as tariffs and wages.
China data suggest risk of prolonged deflationary pressures this year, while companies are holding back from hiring. US trade risks are two-sided.
US tariffs on steel and aluminium are unlikely to have a material economic effect on Emerging Asia, but more severe tariffs could slow the export up cycle.
Positive comments on a Ukraine ceasefire have driven market sentiment in CEE.
Labour indicators report healthy momentum in most of Latin America. However, this does not necessarily reflect economic strength.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

1.08600 proved to be impenetrable and afterwards Eur broke below channel trendline.

If it closes in next 10 min around here – 1.08200 or lower, we are going to have Pattern signal for sell.

What I don’t like about it is a fact that this is already a prolonged correction and the law we saw is so called extended move – so carefully

Use stop – I would place it just above 1.08250 , but that’s just me – don’t like big stops and my approach is that if market doesn’t go my direction – voila…I am out.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0830/20

degenerates’ battleground atm
just as stock appear to try for a new washout BUT, in my book, around 1% is piddly stuff
unless one conciders weekly where some may be sqeualing and others are rubbing hands

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 103.60
–
overall USD is getting some love from market, BUT not enuff to be charging out of call it consolidation zone

another overall is that bonds too are more mixed that lop-sided.

jerome tried to bamboozle players with some blablah about stagflation …

and so my so-far instinct observation is that with CB yikyakings about rates and ploicies over, players are and will put focus on any “clarifications” about April 2nd tariffications dynamics.

still overall in my reading of market sentiment about the dollar is that there retisence to rush into it, which by extention means that a rally in the dollar should have limited octane. in other words dlrx puppy will be needing to rush through 104 decisively and hold the level.

euro 1.0832 as I type.
I am biased down on this one. I maintain it needs to test decisively 108.20 Sup failure of which should open up approx 100 southerly pips and towards the 200dma

.
.

[GVI Forex 2]

Starting out here like it is TGIF….

EURUSD 1.0850 clearly pivotal in setting the tonr… last at 1.0831

Commidity currencies down… JPY up…reflects a risk off tone

So far a no market moving news day

[GVI Forex 2]

US 10 year yield dips.. some FX correlation… EURUSD  1.0860 so far holding (high 1.0861)… USDJPY back below 149]

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.08250, 1.07650

Resistances: 1.08450, 1.08600

Close of this bar above 1.08400 would indicate a possibility for change of trend on 4h

However, before it goes above 1.08600 EUR can continue downwards.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures lower whilst USD gains ahead of Trump-Hegseth meeting

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European indices hold a negative bias, airliners on the backfoot with Heathrow closed; US futures are also lower.

USD is broadly firmer vs. peers with macro newsflow on the light side, but ahead of Trump-Hegseth meeting at 15:00GMT.

Gilts underperform on more unfavourable developments for Reeves, Bunds bid.

TTF ignites on Sudzha damage,

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[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows..

… the dollar trading firmer although except for USDJPY, all are still below Thursday’s highs

Another case where news reports look for some excuse to explain the price action

This time it is the Fed being in no rush to cut rates

EURUSD: Looks like it will break an 8 day pattern around 1.09 (bearish)… needs to stay above 1.0805 to avoid an outside week

Stocks a touch lower, US bond yields. steady, DAX is weaker

XAUUSD: Lower after no new record high today

Light news day

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Upticked worked – up to the point – high 1.08525

Support at 1.08150 held for now.

As long as it stays above 1.08150 EUR will have a chance to break above 1.08750 and continue with Uptrend.

However, below the given support, a new universe would open – going as low as 1.06300

[GVI Forex 2]

So let’s see

EURUSD back to 1.0850 (but not abive it)

USDCAD backs away from 1.44

US yiuelds tick back up

Stocks back to square one

Not a 1+1 = 2 DAY

[GVI Forex 2]

For those trading EURUSD, note its tone once it failed to regain 1.0850. Current range 1.0815-39