[michael Calif]

repost  –  big picture:    Option Profile remains decisively Long Euro futures Short Yen futures.    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD low 1.0846

Posted pre-data (EURUSD range 1.0906 – 1/0846

1.09 should be tough on top, back below 10840-50 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.08

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP ONE HOUR

Unwinding of EURGBP creating sort of a tug of war between EURUSD (off its high) and GBPUSD (higher)… EURGBP support zone .8353-73

[GVI Forex 2]

Nice when logic prevails as NFP was clearly distorted although it does give the Fed cover to cut ratess next week,
‘
EURUSD failed at 1.09+, support at1.0862 needs to hold to keep the focu away from the downside.

[GVI Forex 2]

Markets reacting to big downside miss in NFP…yields dip, dollar dips seems distorted but reaction is what matters.. see if EURUSD can hold above 1.09, if not then upside cools

[GVI Forex 2]

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‘
Equities firmer following strong AMZN/INTC results & DXY gains ahead of US NFP

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European bourses are entirely in the green alongside modest strength in US futures following post-earning strength in Amazon/Intel & ultimately outmuscling losses in Apple.

Dollar is firmer, CHF sinks after the region’s inflation data and JPY pares recent strength.

Gilts continue to underperform with benchmarks generally softer pre-Payrolls.

Crude is lower as risk-premium returns into the weekend though participants have NFP to navigate first.

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 1 HOUR – THE MORNING AFTER

GBP crosses recovering (EURGBP, GBPJPY) giving some support to GBPUSD.

EURGBP .8404 was a mini breakout level yesterday so back below it would be needed to shift the focus to .8360.

Downside would be contained if .8400-05 holds.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – WAITING FOR NFP

Market is biding its time waiting for the US jobs report,

A sharp price in EURGBP yesterday helped give EURUSD a bid and it has backed off today as the cross eased back.

1.09 should be tough on top, back below 10840-50 would be needed to shift the focus back to 1.08,

Oct NFP:

A weak jobs # is expected following a sharp rise in Sept BUT NFP will likely be distorted by the hurricanes and strikes,

[SF Monedge]

Euro is picking up and could play a small role in tempering the Sterling selling and drive it toward 2955 (price magnet in my system).  Unless some internal dynamics change it would be another good sell area in many cases.

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0850

SO the shackles around this puppy are tighetening
1.0845 and 1.0875

puppy goes thru 75 would open up low 1.09

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 1.2865

While EURGBP ha been helping to drive GBPUSD down, the biggest move has been in GBPJPY.’
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Charts show little below the market so use 1.2850 and 1.2800 a potential supports.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP DAILY CHART – BONDS SLIDE, GBP FOLLOWS

 

I said keep an eye on EURGBP for month end but did not expect the bond vigilante to attack and see that pPIll over to the GBP.

Either that or it is month end flows but whatever the case, the Oct high at .8434 and Sept high at 8463 are at risk  should .8505 become support.

[SF Monedge]

Euro and a few other pairs are moving contrary to US stocks and data, much of that is almost surely due to month end adjustments as pointed out by Jay of Global View in here yesterday.

[GVI Forex 2]

Mixed reaction to US data

Month end flows seem to be dominating

Note EURGBP .8388 resistance close to tested

Offests helping to push EURUSD to a new high, now above its 200 DMA

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD:

1.0870 = 200 DMA
1.0873 = key resistance (blocks exposing 1.09)

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD 4 HOUR CHART – MONTH END

What caught my eye is GBPUSD holding the 1.2939 support again, helped by .EURGBP backing off its high.

Note what I posted about EURGBP and month end,

Otherwise,  2 week range 1.2907-1.3057 (see arrow)

1.30 is clearly the pivotal level.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – REVERAL OF FORTUNE

I feel like a parrot repeating to keep an eye on EURGBP if trading EURUSD and/or GBPUSD.

EURGBP’s  rebound from a failure to test .8295 yesterday, which lifted EURUSD while ultimately weighing on GBP{USD,  would need to take out .8380-88 to expose .8405.

Otherwise, look for .8350 to remain pivotal in setting the tone while it trade .8300-.8400..

Month end

EURGBP tends to be one of the more active month end flows, often on both sides at different times, so keep an eye on it Thursday, including its impact on EURUSD and GBPUSD.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART PATTERN BROKEN

The break of a 5 day pattern where 1.08 traded each day is a bullish indicator but with some caution as demand seemed to come more from its crosseS, specifically EURGBP, than vs the USD

1.0971=73, the 200 day mva and key resistance.is A tough obstacle to 1.09.

Otherwise, would need to stay above 1.0839 to keep a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

JP 1.0871 is the 200 day mva, just below key 1.0873 res.

GBPUSD is the weak link in EURGBP buying (last .8374) while EURUSD remains bid out of the cross.. next res is a key one at .8383

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0867

1.0875 likely the “truth” price line