[Mtl JP]

now that the eurdlr GAP is POOF!
next is dlrchf … the laggard

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – AMAZING TRADER LEVEL

 

You have seen me post about my (more than just a) charting algo, The Amazing Trader and what you see on this chart is no coincidence.
‘
In fact, if you scroll back, you will see me cite this as a key level.
‘
‘FWIW I would not have drawn this line without AT.

Contact jay@localhost for details on a 1/2 rate special

[GVI Forex 2]

Bobby, you have been pointing out the upside risk on GBPUSD… take a look at the yield snapshot, which may be a reason why GBPUSD is holding a bid * and vs EUR a well)

Note commodity currencies, led by the AUD (and NZD) are outperforming.

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk US Open

USD is softer & USTs are flat on election day. Crude rises on geopols & constructive Chinese data

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are mixed and trading tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark; US futures are incrementally firmer/flat.

Dollar is slightly softer on US election day, Antipodeans benefit from constructive Chinese PMIs and Aussie was fairly unreactive to an unsurprising hold at the RBA.

USTs are essentially unchanged, Bunds are pressured alongside Gilts; the latter was weighed on by its 2034 auction.

Upward bias across industrials amid geopolitics and encouraging Chinese PMI data.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – ON HOLD

EURUSD in a holding pattern awaiting the results of the US election.

If trading, stick to short-term charts and day trade as even if you call the election right, you could be caught out by an early vote headline.
‘
Current range is around 1.0870-1.0915, the bottom end is the top of the gap.

[GVI Forex 2]

LONDON (Reuters) – Currency traders rushed to hedge against big overnight price movements that might ensue as the results of the 2024 U.S. election trickle out, pushing options volatility for the euro and Mexican peso to the highest since the 2016 vote.

FX traders brace for wild moves after US election

[GVI Forex 2]

LONDON (Reuters) – Currency traders rushed to hedge against big overnight price movements that might ensue as the results of the 2024 U.S. election trickle out, pushing options volatility for the euro and Mexican peso to the highest since the 2016 vote.

FX traders brace for wild moves after US election

[GVI Forex 2]

For traders, the focus will be on the Dollar, with a Trump win and a Republican sweep seen as the most bullish case for the Buck, with Commodity FX, the Yuan, and MXN amongst EMFX heavily weighed on. If Harris won, the Greenback is expected to be weaker, with commodity FX outperforming along with the EUR…

Read more in our blog

[SF Monedge]

Sell side of EurJpy from 70/80 area is clean if you are not already in or have to wait.

[SF Monedge]

The selling in EurChf stuck and so the dominant bias is secured on the sell side, where it should be.  So just sell any pullups if not already in and get out of the OK Corral before the election results.

[Mtl JP]

EURDLR 1.0885

currently s/t priceline in the Support sand

[SF Monedge]

EurChf could pull up from here.  The problem is it would run contrary to EurGbp selling fro 8420 as well as its correlation to stocks.  So perhaps a good hedge (buy one sell the other) and cut the loser when clear.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR – MIND THE GAP

Double top so far at 1.0906 (1.09 likely to set the pre-election tone)

Opening week gap to 1.0833

Back below 1.0869 would put the gap in play, provides support while above it

Above 1.0906 would expose 1.0917-53

Price action more likely the result of pre-US election position adjustments as it is hard to see big bets given the uncertain outcome.

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week gaps (Friday closing price – opening price

EURUSD
GBPUSD
uSDJPY
AUDUSD

Note Friday closing price may wary depending on the broker

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

This week, markets will focus on the US presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. The election is expected to be a tight race, with possible delays in final results due to absentee and provisional ballots. Meanwhile, the FOMC is likely to announce a 25-basis point rate cut, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to emphasize the central bank’s independence and data-driven approach.

October’s job report showed weak payroll growth but stable unemployment, signaling a mixed labor market. Inflation remains stubborn, especially in services, despite signs of stabilization in the Fed’s preferred PCE measure. Global economic releases include contracting manufacturing PMIs in Europe, a steady interest rate from Australia, and an anticipated 25-basis point rate cut from the Bank of England.

Together, these events will shape both market expectations and the outlook for monetary policy.

Econoday

[Mtl JP]

… “Opening week EURUSD gap” … = a gift

[michael Calif]

headed into the election, Option Profile players continue to place bets on the Long side of Euro futures, and the Short side of Yen futures and SP500 futures    :gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Weaker USD open

Opening week EURUSD gap

Only news was a surprise Iowa poll showing big swing to Harris … outlier or not it?

[GVI Forex 2]

Opening week EURUSD gap

[ST London]

Weekend musings

We wanted to buy the EurUd dip (but never felt that we had reached a level that we were extremely confident of a genuine bottom)

However it is possible we reached one in Cable. If so then the surprise trade would be to move back through theUsd moveto some half way point before reassessing

That is why I just said the EurUsd and GbpUsd could move 200 pips back up but did not infer nor include UsdJpy in that

UsdJpy was bid up on a spurious conjecture that the US would no longer drop rates or would only do 1/4. (It has to be said the dot plot never suggested a 1/2 anyway but the stock market wanted an excuse whether it need one or not

So add in the political climate (in Japan) where the gamble of a snap election has just as it did in the UK failed dramatically and we have the ingredients of uncertainty where anything short(ish) term in UsdJpy could happen. why not a 4 or 500 pip range in one day ?