Dismal EZ PMIs hit risk sentiment, with Bonds bid and EUR at lows
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4Â things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know
Equities began the session on a firmer footing but now reside in negative territory after dismal EZ PMI metrics.
USD firmer and ultimately benefiting from poor EZ PMIs which forced EUR/USD briefly onto a 1.03 handle. Sterlinghit on its own data and Retail Sales beforehand.
Bonds soar in reaction to dire EZ PMIs which have boosted the odds of a 50bps ECB cut.
Crude is slightly firmer, XAU bid and base metals hit by sentiment.
Anyone who is short should stay the course and anybody who failed to get short you have plenty of time to react the first upward reaction because I’m right on this. This is a major trade, which could set things up nicely to therefore takeoff some weeks at the end of the year.
Something to consider is the cycling of big money. Today they are buying Dow stocks ahead of a Friday with a US holiday and major Geo risk. That is driving some currencies down which would otherwise move in tandem, but the money is not as happy outward with those currencies as they are with a 2025 stock rally.
There should be a delayed reaction which would support the sell side of UsdChf and other safe haven plants beginning either in Asia or Europe tonight.
Euro will likely not receive the same benefit as Swiss (futures especially) and so I am not biting here on any bear trap setup, although I might in other conditions. Better play, at least for me is the buy side of Swiss itself and Yen itself.
what is almost sarcastic play is the eur/dlr price action
sarcastic in the sence that IF one has not made posi-pips shorting the puppy from around the 1.06 price level
and with so many energy and magnitude indicators abounding
when else , under what other market situation, can one ever hope to “make it” trading FX ?
Yen futures are a buy all the way and currently pulling back, so the good play (obviously) is the sell side of Yen pairs in spot. Give it about 10pips or so in EurJpy if you missed it.
If EurChf can make it to around 9338 or so that could be a good spot for not only a sell side position but a timing mechanism for other pairs this morning. Price behavior in Swiss futures shows a non-committal condition. One might think Friday might present flows into Swiss and perhaps Yen on safe have precaution. Couple of thougthts.