Good thing I have A FULL HEAD OF HAIR as EURUSD’s earlier rally was a head scratcher for me but once it failed below 1.0550 after a stop hunt, it slowly lost its bid.
Now just keep a focus on 1.05 as THAT REMAINS THE BIAS SETTER.. IF YOU are looking for a level that would cool the downside, it needs to get back above 1.0470… LAST AT 1.0467
Yen futures are pulling back and rebalancing, the dominant flows are uphill. There is another good sell side UsdJpy trade coming up and especially EurJpy due to its clear fundamental weakness that is growing in economic terms. Futures 6500 is an area where larger orders are to rebalance uphill in Yen futures. If flows remain consistent it may get there in about 90 minutes. Hopefully.
EURUSD Daily
Supports : 1.05100 , 1.04650 & 1.04250
Resistances : 1.05500 , 1.05700 & 1.06100
Pattern wise : this is a possible situation of sharp turn Up – 1.06100 separates us from declaring it.
In case it works, target is in 1.07800 area.
If it fails to overcome 1.06100 , based on previous move’s angle – 1.01350 is what we’ll be seeing .
NEWSQUAWK US OPEN
CAD & MXN hit by Trump’s tariff announcement, US futures impacted but are back in the green; FOMC minutes ahead
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top
5Â things you need to know for today’s market.
Trump announced he is to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products and will charge China ‘an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs’.
European bourses in the red on the above, US futures initially pressured but have since made their way back to unchanged/marginally firmer
USD began on the back foot but has since retreated markedly, JPY outperforms while CAD is the G10 laggard
Fixed benchmarks in the red pulling back from Monday’s gains though did see a shortlived move higher on the tariff announcement
Crude firmer but action modest after recent ceasefire related pressure; Israel’s Cabinet set to meet at 15:30GMT/10:30EST to discuss this
EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – GAP FILLED
If you go strictly by the book, opening week gap filled and then a rebound
If you were trading in the heat of battle, the move back above 1.05 was a head scratcher.
In any case, 1.05 should continue to be the bias setter, only a break of 1.0530 would suggest more to this head scratching rebound.
Back below 1.0470 would shift risk back to 1.0425-50
I just closed sell side positions of EurJpy, EurUsd, AudUsd, UsdSingapore, and a buy side UsdChf right here, and a sell EurGbp all in the money.  These levels as I type are areas where I believe there may be adjustment flows and so it is back to a game of patience. Prefer buy side of US Dollar and the sell side of everything else so a matter of waiting for these markets to rebalance a bit.
Had a sell USdPeso but did not fill, not confident we see decent re-entry levels until tomorrow.
Honor the Dollar.
There are a tone of sell orders at 163 EurJpy and 163.50 and 164 from larger entities I can see through correlations in futures and options contracts. If/when filled overshoot can happen and does not equate to failed entry, it becomes a matter patience. Some substantial developments would be required for 163.50 to be blown out and if so the pair would likely be targeting 166.   If 165 trades it would be prudent to consider the likelihood the more significant flows have turned to the buy side.
I was a CTA this is part of how you do it. Correlations count.
I made note a couple of weeks ago for those of us who do not have much funds to work with but like stocks, that I have been on the buy side of a very low priced AI stock named OPEN. I just closed it at 2.18 if anyone was paying attention.
Will re-enter lower, may take a week or longer to get there.
Euro correlates well with some stock metrics and so I anticipate we should see 1.0550 at a minimum and more than likely 1.04 eventually.
In a neural perspective Euro has legs today against crosses that others do not. So one of a few component showing Euro is getting real flows. It is very unlikely to last and so I am patiently waiting to add on the sell side and 162.50 or higher EurJpy would be a kind gesture by the market.
I like the sell side of EurUsd from 0528 as a first area to scale and will scale in higher if seen. I think it requires something slightly abnormal to change the overall sell bias.
I was talking with JP last night as I call him The Master of Opening Week Gaps.
I asked him about the EURUSDD gap.
Hew said gaps almost eventually get filled but saw a risk to 1.0550 first.
1.0550- coinmcides wiuth the 1.0545-55 area I highlighted earler (scroll below).
Meanwhile EURUSD has broken above 1.05, see now if it can hold as that will dicate whether 1.0450 or 1.0550 is at risk.
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