[GVI Forex 2]

Quick Summary

US stocks are reaching new records as growth continues to outperform, interest rate cut optimism grows, and investors shrug off overseas turbulence in French politics and Chinese trade. The US manufacturing contraction is moderating, and growth estimates are rising, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s ‘GDPNow’ model predicting a 3.2% annualized expansion in the current quarter. Meanwhile, the Fed is hinting at another rate cut, with Governor Christopher Waller suggesting a move to a more neutral monetary policy setting. In Europe, France is facing a ‘no-confidence’ vote, but government borrowing rates are tumbling, and the European Central Bank is under pressure to cut rates further. In China, the yuan has hit a 2024 low, and the country is retaliating against US trade restrictions with export bans on certain materials.

Morning Bid: Wall St at records as Paris simmers, yuan hits 2024 low

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are entirely in the green; US futures are essentially flat ahead of US JOLTS and Fed speak.

USD is broadly softer vs. peers, EUR/USD reclaims 1.05.

US yield curve steepens ahead of JOLTS, OATs await Wednesday’s confidence vote

Crude climbs higher, base metals benefit from the risk tone and softer USD.

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[GVI Forex 2]

Thinking out loud:

It is hard to see EURUSD moving too far to the upside (as long as it stays below 1.0538) ahead of the French no-confidence vote tomorrow.

Otherwise it is a light calendar day with only US JOLTS (job ppenings) due

[GVI Forex 2]

ALERT

French government no confidence vote to be held on Wednesday.,,,  EURUSD backs off its high on the headline

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.05 remains pivotal

Bounce back above 1.05 has cooled the French political fallout for now but would need to take out 1.0538 to cool the downside momentum.

Otherwise, 1.05 will clearly dictate the tone going forwards.

Key event risk: French government no confidence vote to be held on Wednesday.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – 1.05 remains pivotal

Current downside risk stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.

Only 1.0545-50+ shiftS the risk back to 1.06.

1.05 will clearly dictate the tone going forwards.

Key event risk” French government no confidence vote sometime this week.

[SF Monedge]

I see some conditions that point toward EurGbp pulling up toward 8400 in coming days.

[GVI Forex 2]

Unless EURUSD can regain 1.05, the risk is pointed down. Questioon is whethjer the easiest path is in its crosses (e.g. EURJPY) or in the dollart.

So I thought it was time to revisit this popular article gioven the fresh run against the EUR.

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance – A Common Sense Way to Trade

[GVI Forex 2]

Unless EURUSD can regain 1.05, the risk is pointed down. Questioon is whethjer the easiest path is in its crosses (e.g. EURJPY) or in the dollart.

So I thought it was time to revisit this popular article gioven the fresh run against the EUR.

Forex Trading: Seeking the Path of Least Resistance – A Common Sense Way to Trade

 

 

[SF Monedge]

One of the better trades I see is sell side of EurJpy but from higher than present market.  Catching falling knives in other pairs does not look appealing.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUYSD 4 HOUR CHArtT – Targets or supports?

More like targets than supports

1.0474, 1.0457, 1.0425 (key)

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY selling order… below 158.00-10 opens a void… key levels arw not until 154.37 and 153.10

[GVI Forex 2]

The Savvy Trqder added an addendum to his update

Latest USDJPY and EURJPY Updates From the Savvy Trader

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 MIN CHART – RESISTANCE HOLDS

Usin my Amazing Trader chart, this is why I highlighted 1`0537 as a key day resistance

Current down momentum stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.

[GVI Forex 2]

Watch our for French political headlines… French PM Barnier speaks in parliamnent in about an hour… his office confirmed govt will SCRAP PLANS TO REDUCE MEDICATION REIMBURSEMENTS…MAY BE WHY EURUSD JUST POPPED… Res still at 1.0537

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

USD bid amid further tariff threats ahead of ISM Manufacturing, OATs in focus as the French gov’t awaits Le Pen’s decision

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses began the session in negative territory, but sentiment quickly improved to show a mostly positive picture in Europe; US futures modestly lower.

Dollar is propped up by further Trump tariff threats, EUR dragged by political uncertainty and tests 1.05 to the downside.

OATs in focus as the French gov’t awaits Le Pen’s decision; USTs are slightly lower ahead of US ISM Manufacturing PMIs.

WTI & Brent are on a firmer footing following better-than-expected Chinese PMIs, XAU/base metals pressured by the firmer Dollar.
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[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 4 HOUR CHART – Key support looms

Keep an eye on EURGBP as an indicator of EUR weakness, with offsets keeping a bid under GB{USD

Now approaching a major support at .8267. below sees a clear path for .8200 other than the pivotal .8250 level.

Only back above .8300-05 would postpone the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Only a retracement

As we have been saying, the EURUSD rebound should be treated as a retracement unless `1.0610 is taken out.

Stall at 1.0596 confirms this view.

For today, 1.05 will clearly dictate whether it can go after1.0455-75.

Current down momentum stays intact as long as 1.0537 is not broken.

Only 1.0545-50+ would retore a bid.

[GVI Forex 2]

The euro fell due to political uncertainty in France, where the government faces a no-confidence vote, while the US dollar strengthened ahead of a key week for US interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s decision on December 18 is expected to impact markets, with traders predicting a 66% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. Global shares were lifted by tech stocks, and oil prices rose after Chinese manufacturing data, while gold sank under pressure from the strong dollar.

Euro slides, pressured by French political uncertainty

[michael Calif]

Nov 14 re-post.   Law of Time remains Long Euro, Yen, and 10yr futures; buying any and all dips.    Option Profile gtwo3