US Market Open: Bitcoin pushes past 100k & USD remains on the backfoot
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!
Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know
European bourses opened flat but started grinding higher shortly after the open despite relatively quiet newsflow; France’s CAC 40 shrugged off the vote of no confidence which played out as expected.
USD remains on the backfoot vs. peers following yesterday’s ISM-induced move in yields; EUR on a firmer footing vs. the USD with not much in the way of follow-through selling from the collapse of the French government.
Crude futures holding a modest upward bias after selling off in the US afternoon on Wednesday, which was later attributed to a bank offloading a large volume of US oil futures contracts ahead of today’s OPEC+ meeting.
Bitcoin climbed above the psychological USD 100k level for the first time ever and continued to advance with prices underpinned after US President-elect Trump picked crypto-backer Paul Atkins to lead the SEC.
US futures tilt higher ahead of Powell & European paper awaits French no confidence vote
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.
4 Things You Need to Know
European bourses are mostly trading in positive territory; US futures tilt higher ahead of Powell and a busy data slate.
USD is broadly firmer vs. peers, AUD lags post-GDP, and GBP was weighed on by commentary from BoE’s Bailey who said he sees four 25bps cuts in 2025; a move which has since pared.
European paper awaits French no confidence vote at 15:00 GMT.
Crude holds an upward bias, WSJ reports that Saudi aims to keep oil prices elevated rather than chase market share; XAU/base metals are subdued amid the slightly firmer dollar.
Using my platform like a heatmap shows JPY and AUD as the biggest losers., Unwinding of long JPY crosses likely helping to keep EURUSD pinned at 1.05 and some support to GBP as well in what is a generally up day for the USD ahead of key events.
The caveat with Euro is the meltdown of France’s political system this week and the Geo conditions. My preference in that one remains short until we see Dow 4400 or lower, which I believe is pending. Unless we get something very positive fundamentally, because for now stocks have shifted to a stock picking environment.
Larger picture I would be on the buy size of AudNzd from nearby levels for 1.1150 or better. These sells are the conclusion of an intermediate sell cycle in that pair and others, including Michael’s Euro view.
Due to the increasingly hair trigger Geo conditions I would not bet against Swiss Franc and am in the process of scaling positions in it.
Michael – regarding your post on bias shift in Euro, not today in my view but I see growing conditions for that to filter in as soon as tomorrow, I posted this yesterday …. “I see some conditions that point toward EurGbp pulling up toward 8400 in coming days”.
Sell side of AudNzd looks decent to me at the moment from 1.102 or under. Flows have been hitting prime spots in the European session of late making the US session a bit difficult, but I have been finding good situations in crosses. Yen has legs, period, so the sell side of Yen pairs is prime.