While the BoJ may be lurking pressure on the USDJPY upside is coming out of its crosses…
WHICH ARE WEIGHING ON THE USD ELSEWHERE, LED BY GBP, WHICH IS BID AHEAD OF THE NO CHANGE IN RATES EXPECTED FROM THE BOE IN A FEW HOURS (GBPJPY IS +2% ON THE DAY)… Note EURJPY is up 2% as well (helps explain the EURUSD rebound)
Hint: When you see a big move in USDJPY there is generally a cross flow(S) helping to drive the move.
Hint: When you see two currencies moving in opposite directions vs. the dollar it is a sign of real money order flow buying/selling a cross.
Key USDJPY resistance is at 156.72 (use 156.70-75) … Cross offsets giving some support to others vs USD… Treat EURUSD as a retracement as long as it stays below 1.0420-25
Stocks bounce higher +> bond yields tick up => USD firms… GBPUSD lags (EURGBP .8253)… or maybe USD is up ahead of a not dovish rate cut at the Fed meeting which would be one the first logical price moves seen this week.
The sell side of Aud and Euro in general looks decent to me as well as the buy side of Usd/Peso. Prefer higher levels for entry with Aud and Euro. I like the buy side of Sterling with a preference from lower levels and the sell side of Canadian Dollar futures (buy side UsdCad).
EURUSD has taken out liquidity on the 15 minutes timeframe, price is ranging on H4 and we are at a discount, I believe price will go to this short term highs and take out liquidity
AUDUSD trading at its lowest level for the year… 2023 low is at ,6270
USDCAD trading at a 4+ year high
EURUSD extended its trade around 1.05 to \7 days in a row… the longer it goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it ends
Key focus today is the FOMC… a hawkish rate cut (i.e. pause in January) is expected… given the time of year it is hard to suggest a follow through reaction so watch the US bond market for a clue to how much is already discounted.