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KIt’s the reaction to news that matters
EURUSD reacted to this
and ignored this
EURUSD 4h
Watch the close of this 4h bar!
If it manages to close above 1.07900, there will be a fair chance for the attack at 1.08250
I have to point something – this correction started 7 days ago, and it is kind of lame – so we might be seeing a change of a current intraday trend.
But as long as 1.08250 holds, more tests of supports are on cards.
US Dollar Index
US Dollar index hasn’t been doing much lately. We just got the strong downward push triggered by the German defence spending news which saw EU-US yield differentials jumping in favour of the Euro. As a reminder, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is basically EUR/USD upside down as the Euro makes up for 60% of the index.
This is harder to square but the greenback will most likely be influenced by the risk sentiment following the catalyst as positive news should keep rate cuts expectations around two for this year, while negative news could push those to four or more.
US OPEN
US futures modestly lower amid tariff reports, GBP lags & EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08
Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start!
Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
Tariffs in focus amid reports that Trump could implement copper tariffs in weeks, elsewhere reports that Canada could find some reprieve
European bourses opened firmer but have since slumped, US futures are in the red but only modestly so
GBP lags after UK CPI, EUR/USD attempts to reclaim 1.08, USD/JPY rebounded overnight but is off highs
Gilts gapped higher on data and extended but have retreated to opening levels into the Spring Statement, USTs softer while Bunds are firmer but only modestly so
Crude continues to inch higher with a handful of factors underpinning, TTF slips as talks continue, Copper soared on tariff updates but has since pulled back
Market Could Be Underpricing U.S. Tariff Risks For Euro
The market is underpricing the risk to the euro from U.S. reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2, ING’s Chris Turner says in a note. “The EU (led by Germany) runs a large trade surplus with the U.S. and will likely, alongside China, be at the forefront of Washington’s reset on global trade.” The euro last trades flat at $1.0793 and ING expects it to fall to $1.05 by the end of the second quarter due to U.S. tariffs.
EURUSD DAILY – 4 DAYS IN A ROW
1.08 has printed 4 days in a row… the longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken (note what happened at 1.09).
Key supports: 1.0777 (double bottom) , 1.0765
Key resistance: 1.0830
See JP’s timely post about EURGBP topping out and how EURUSD lost its bid after.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
… uncertain markets looking ahead to quarter end and reciprocal tariff day on April 2
Mixed USD
EURUSD focus still on 1.08 after another test of 1.0777 (2-day double bottom)… support coming fro a firmer EURGBP and lesser extent EURJPY
GBPUSD lower after cooler UK inflation (EURGBP firms)
USDJPY back above 150 after holding above 149.49 yesterday
USDCAD a touch weaker dezpite tariff uncertainty
U.S. stocks a touch weaker
XAUUSD in a wait and see mode
Looking ahead… light US data calendar, awaiting next Trump headline
