[Rafe]

There we go with dollar strength already… The Europeans have wars to tackle, the United States doesn’t, their war is against global terror… We are trading inefficiencies of which Europe has too many to deal with at one time. Caught in the middle are brits stuck with the bad karma of their cutting themselves off from the EU… but that doesn’t make them Europeans any less fwiw… They still have problems on their hands with blaring inefficiencies near visible in coming weeks…

[Anonymous]

(Bloomberg) — European gas prices are up about 45% this year, adding to the burden on households and industry as they strive to recover from the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades. There’s likely to be more to come with Russian gas flows due to cease on Jan. 1.

[Anonymous]

Europe stands at a critical juncture, caught between the echoes of war in Ukraine, the looming shadow of Trump’s potential return to the White House, and the relentless tug-of-war between the US and China for economic dominance. As leadership shifts in Brussels and key elections approach in France and Germany, the continent’s future hangs in the balance.

[Anonymous]

If You don’t understand the Energetic Problematic and the Embedded loss in the EURUSD fair value, You are missing the big picture.

https://amp.dw.com/en/russia-to-halt-gas-deliveries-to-moldova-from-january-1/a-71177330

[michael Calif]

JP – there is no time frame; Euro will rally until price & time next match up again at degrees on a circle  …

[GVI Forex 2]

Rebalanciung still appears to be the driver of the stock sell-off as bond yieklds dip as well… EURUSD focus is back on 1.04 and on the downside after failing above 1.0450.

[Mtl JP]

re “will the Euro rally reach 1.12 from current 1.03-1.04 lows”
–
what is your timeframe for that ?

—
could is not will:
Next ECB rate cut could be longer in coming, Governing Council member Robert Holzmann says. The European Central Bank may delay its next interest rate cut due to a recent increase in inflation, which accelerated to 2.2% in November from 2.0% in October, surpassing the ECB’s target of 2%.1 day ago

[michael Calif]

daily futures.   repost.   price & time remain in sync; will the Euro rally reach 1.12 from current 1.03-1.04 lows …    gtwo3

[GVI Forex 2]

Power of 50… EURUSD 1.0421 last vs 1.0458 high

[Belgrade Bobby]

 

EURUSD Monthly – End of the Year

EURUSD spent previous two years (2023/2024) quite undecided, even we had some tremendous shakings in the World, and lots of tremors.

For the first time I am going to take into account some heavy Fundamentals coming in and lots of speculation on the outcomes…

Continue reading HERE

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Monthly – End of the Year

EURUSD spent previous two years (2023/2024) quite undecided, even we had some tremendous shakings in the World, and lots of tremors.

For the first time I am going to take into account some heavy Fundamentals coming in and lots of speculation on the outcomes…

Continue reading HERE…

[Anonymous]

Europe (I see a huge academic cunning behaviour there), so many consultants selling the political tales in hope to trade them for hefty invoices.

Europe is rotten to the core.

Beside that Professional Politicians been progressively cleaned up now couple decades there. What is left… fanatics and other underground linked figures, the east particularly.

Europe is a continent that is extremely poor of raw materials as of energy resources. But our Elites seem never read history books.

That said see Yourselves

ING BANK STUDY UPON THE EURUSD FAIR VALUE
(emphasis on the part Energy and the EURO)

‘In other words, any views about a material recovery in the EUR/USD fair value need to go hand-in-hand with the assumption that energy prices will return not just to pre-conflict levels, but to 1H21 levels. Unless this happens, any EUR/USD strength from now on will have to rely on rate differentials above economic fundamentals, and will bring the pair well into expensive territory against our BEER fair value. In short, EUR/USD may not be as cheap as it looks.’

Analysis in Full here “EUR/USD: Not as cheap as it looks”
(and still is, ref. energy – consider in some places EUROPE citizens are paying bills about five times bigger than Americans. That is a surcharge of 500%!! No strange industries are closing one by one, and about half of the population has very difficult times)

https://think.ing.com/articles/eur-usd-not-as-cheap-as-it-looks/

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0449 high so far

thin market , degenerate trading operators having a ball!

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATRMAP shows:

Pre-end of year trading flows doiminating.

USD down a touch with commodity currencies so far outperforming.

EURUSD trading with a bid but so far staying below 1.0447-50

USDJPY tested just above 158, which remains the current line in the sand amid verbal intervention threats.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – KRY LRVRL CITED

It is hard to draw conclusions at this time as price action is driven more by end-of-year flows although generally there are some looking to position for the start of the new year.

EURUSD though has traded with a bid after breaking a 6-day pattern around 1.04 on Friday

See The Magic Levels Trading Pattern Strikes Again

With that said, resistance is clear at 1.0447, suggests using n1.,0467-50 as only firmly above it would postpone the risk to the downside and shift the focus back to 1.05.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off Monday is the US Chicago PMI for December. Forecasters expect the Chicago purchasers report to show regional business conditions remain dismal at year end with the PMI at 42.7 in December after dropping unexpectedly to a very contractionary 40.2 in November from an already bleak 41.6 in October and 46.6 in September.

The US pending home sales in November is expected to continue September and October’s recovery with forecasters looking for sales up 0.9 percent in November. Even though mortgage rates rose in November, a less pricey housing market was expected to lure more buyers in November.

On Tuesday, US Case-Shiller home price index for October is expected to continue its gradual slowing in the rate of annual home price inflation with the 20-city composite index up 4.6 percent in September, down from 5.2 percent in August and 5.9 percent in July. Forecasters now look for more slowing to 4.3 percent in October. The consensus also looks for a moderate 0.2 percent increase on the month after a 0.2 percent increase in September. US FHFA house price on the other hand is expected up 0.5 percent on the month after a larger 0.7 percent increase in the prior month.

Thursday, China Caixin PMI manufacturing is estimated to see firming to 51.6 in December from 51.5 in November. The Caixin index continues to outperform the official manufacturing PMI, which has barely broken above the 50 neutral level.

Manufacturing PMIs for Germany, France, UK and the Eurozone are expected to continue contracting in December. US is no different as the PMI manufacturing final for the US is expected to contract at 48.3, the same as the flash estimate for December.

Econoday

[Belgrade Bobby]

Politics – Russian gas to Europe

Is it really political ??? Or maybe it’s all about money….as always.

How about a New Year’s Prediction – as it is not about the fate of any currency pair and definitely not tradable – so Predict I can 😀

Under the New management , USA overtakes Nord Stream – fix it up and voila…

New USA-Russia Deal ( I’ll give you this, you give me that style –  as always, someone else will be paying for it one way or another) , and there you have enough gas for 3 Europe .

Everyone gets what is wanted , and all is great and peachy….maybe some collateral damage is done here and there , but all in Good faith and peace on Earth….

Dark humour ….sarcastic….maybe. And maybe not….

p.s. my Black Cat agrees on this prediction …

[Anonymous]

New President, new EUR/USD forecasts – ING Bank

https://think.ing.com/articles/new-president-new-eur-usd-forecasts/

 

[Anonymous]

Very bad news for Europe

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/what-happens-if-russian-gas-to-europe-via-ukraine-is-fully-cut-off/ar-AA1wncGq

[Anonymous]

$EURUSD Am neither to see much of support there. As I see the Euro is on parity or in parity sooner than most think.

 

Best wishes

 

ING BANK long term

We don’t see too much support ahead of 1.0190/0200 now

https://think.ing.com/opinions/eur-usd-the-stars-align-for-a-downside-break-out/