[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0302 = time for a punk trade

[Mtl JP]

The Tone …. that is starting off 2025 trading
–
USD is on up n uP side
– likely to continue thusly for the – at least – short term as players are primarily focused on the relative prospects (vs other CBs) of the FED slower for longer rate cutting theme.

Nothing of notable significance for traders to game on the Econ Calendar today.

EURO 1.0330
Puppy has that “wanting to dive into the toilet” look here while under 1.04 and especially 1.05

[GVI Forex 2]

GBP remainsa the underperformer… including vs the EUR…EURGBP back to .8300

[Anonymous]

All things Inflation – There am observing now some years already a systemic problem in our Food Supply Chains. This, among other things, will also hold prices higher – households poorer.

Not sure Wars are the answer, Yet by the Military Academic Standards, such a World – in classic terms – would inevitably fall into a 3d WW – which partly already is. Yet remembering Einstein, this is not the best choice in our current ever more complex state of the world.
E.g. just the other day Humanity printed a New Population Record of 8.09 billion.

Today’s Financial Times takes note of It with an article titled “Why goats are replacing cows in southern Africa”. But there are the collapse of many wineries in France too, and after a four years crisis there. But there are so many things…

In between we have noticed the problems already now some, but that only upon more “intelligent” media
as e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00543-6

And there not everything is told. If You remember Clinton and he’s statement supporting he’s Neoliberal Legacy that is now ending with Biden – THE ECONOMY IS STUPID – that created most of the nowadays Merchant Princes, the 1% or 10% and the others barely falling one by one.

Well I think the recent decades, the more obscure and cunning terrorist act that has been done is the exploitation of the Intelligence and Intelligent People.

If You wish to become rich You have to adapt to a stupid-sociopathic model.

Beside I don’t buy the Models predicting the Climate 50 or 100 years in advance. That’s stupid too, yet some of our Elite’s speculated heavy into that too. And We have now another stupid problem to solve.

Am optimistic by nature and I think We shall have yet some couple decades of stability, instead of mediated paranoia, take a deep breath and rethink our world for the better.

Which is not what they did up to now. The climate ever changed and will still change. We can’t modify It, because we will develop other damages and we are already. We can e.g. start to live differently.

And somehow We will. Europe will never be growing again, whatever they do or did. It was naivite’ of a class of leaders that are inadequate to the present complex world.

The few Energy Experts around say Its quite simple. The Energy Crisis, among others, simply means We are entering a NO GROWTH ECONOMY.

And so many years have been lost and too many bad guys have been running this show.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Dhara Ranasinghe.

Don’t be fooled by what might prove to be a positive start to the new year, with stock futures pointing to a strong opening on Wall Street on Thursday.

For the last four years, the first trading day of the year has been a contrarian indicator, according to Deutsche Bank research, which notes the broad S&P 500 stock (.SPX), opens new tab index ended each year in the opposite direction it moved on the first day.

Morning Bid: The first trading day of the year, be wary

[Anonymous]

EUROPE – Energy Providers are already planning another 25% bills increase (among other many already seen)

Europe has a chronic problem with raw materials and energy. It’s the Continent that would suffer the more this Post Industrial Switch. Most Policies of EU been very naive’, from Energy to anything else.

Even the Political Philosophy of a Nations System, of the EU semi federal system, has been flowed by cunning academics, consultants and politicians. This by choosing Habermas and Derrida, which thought a sytstem of values based upon a world that does not exists anymore.

Rational observers say if EU would have been say social-democratic would have to choose John Rawls, but he is an american and europeans are too narrow minded to accept It.

Will they after the 2025 Crisis unfolds. Am not so sure of It

https://www.ilnordest.it/cronaca/guerra-russia-stangata-bollette-rincari-prezzi-energia-2025-effetti-ebgmuw4m

[GVI Forex 2]

As I typed EURUSD taking the lead and busting through 1.0332… this along with 1.0350 are now pivotal in keeping 102 on the radar.

[GVI Forex 2]

Here is how I look at EURUD

Broad range 1.02-1.05

1,0350 = MIDPOINT

Above 1.0350, range is to 1,05

Below 1.0350, 1.02 becomes a target

[Anonymous]

The Big View – Sam Harris

Our culture has atomized: We’re all on our own with our phones, laptops, and digital media experiences. No one knows what everyone else is seeing. In some ways, these technologies have caused a shattering of culture, and we can’t seem to agree about our perceptions of the world, says philosopher and neuroscientist Sam Harris.

[Anonymous]

The Big View – The End of Organized Humanity, Noam Chomsky

Part of the speech is focused upon the Energy Problem. Would remind the earlier posted analysis from INGs upon the EURUSDs fair value – energy considered – to be much below parity, somewhere from 0.95 to 0.75 – which will be probably seen in the first half of 2025 already IMVHO.
There are other factors at play as the restructuring of the EU, as other things.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – THE NEW YEAR BEGINS

The new year begins where the last one left off with EURUSD trading soft but consolidating.

Key target is clear at 1.0332, currently blocked by 1.0343 (double bottom).

The intra-day high at 1.0375 blocks a shift back to 1.04.

Speaking of 1.04, it came into today printing 1.04 8 out of 9 days in a row (exception was one day with a 1,0405 low). Assuming 1.04 does not print, this is a bearish sign so a downside risk as long as this level does not trade.

.NOTE the start of a new year can often see false starts and whipsaw type trading until full liquidity is restored.

[Anonymous]

Things to Watch, this early 2025: The Trump Trade

(btw I’d watch the EURUSD support at 1.0250 as a key level)

Small excerpt from link recap lower

Who are the potential losers?
The Mexican peso and Chinese yuan could get punished in the face of a rising dollar and potential Trump tariffs. In equities, potential losers include makers of electric vehicles and renewable energy products, because of Trump’s promise to roll back Biden’s green subsidies.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-trump-trade-is-back-what-it-means-for-investors/ar-BB1q9h3t

 

 

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0375

classic how do you feel punk about 3x top 3x bottom

[Anonymous]

European Central Bank President Lagarde says hopes inflation hits 2% in 2025
Lagarde in a New Years Day speech

 

 

Sounds as a EURUSD bearish stance from the ECB

[Mtl JP]

So Asia and Europe session traders have an opportunity to game, scam and romp the early ’25 market

lets see if they do

euro at 1.0349, usdjpy 157.19, eurgbp .8270

[Anonymous]

 

EURUSD Monthly Chart.

Over larger time frames it seems more downside to develop further.

[Anonymous]

I don’t know how the Markets are going to develop further into the thin early New Year’s liquidity.

That said, keep en eye upon eventual problems regarding the Energy Crisis of Europe. It has already taken a huge toll and Markets priced in It just marginally.

Explainer: What happens when Russian gas supply to Europe via Ukraine ends?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-happens-when-russian-gas-supply-europe-via-ukraine-ends-2024-12-31/

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD losing its bid is consistent with our view of the risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD DAILY CHART – 1.04, 1.04. 1.04…

The 1.04 level continues to be the focal point, having printed 8 of the past 9
days, only exception being a 1.0405 low last Friday.

Under normal conditions, this would be a setup for a directional breakout once the pattern ends so expect a battle in the new year in a market where the upside is likely limited unless 1.05+ is renewed.

Current range is Monday’s 1.0371-1.0458.

2024 low 1.0322

 

[Rafe]

The double edge sword of legalising weed.

It’s so cheap I bet that people bought a few barrels of the stuff and rolled ’em home already… burn a barrel of the stuff to keep the house warm during harsh winters…

Maybe Europe should make weed legal too… They don’t like bamboo as firewood so try burning dried grass…

Where’s CB anyways?