[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Typical

Typical start to the year whipsaw (see Trading Tip: Beware of a New Year Whipsaw)_but to make it anything more than a retracement 1.0375 would need to be taken out.

Otherwise look for 1.0350 to set the tone while within 1.0300-1.0400.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

So here we go – New Year 2025.

Resistances : 1.03250 , 1.03600 & 1.03800

Supports : 1.02450 , 1.02250 & 1.01800

Target is at 0.99250

Only above 1.04250 picture changes

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

Starting off on Monday are the S&P PMI composite finals. The French PMI composite final for December is estimated to remain the same as the flash with the for composite final at 46.7 and services final at 48.2. The German PMI Composite Final is also expected to show no change from the flash at 47.8 for the composite final and 51.0 for services final. The Eurozone PMI is expected to post 49.5 for the composite final and no change from 51.4 for the services final. The UK PMI is estimated to be 50.5 and no revision in services at 51.4. The US PMI service final is estimated to post a robust 58.5 in the December flash and up from 56.1 in November.

Germany’s consumer price index is estimated to reach 2.4 percent on year in December, up from 2.2percent in November. On the month, the consensus looks for CPI up 0.3 percent after a decline of 0.2 percent in November.

On Tuesday, the Eurozone unemployment rate for November is expected to be 6.3 percent again in November after holding steady at 6.3 percent in October from September.

For the US international trade and goods service, the consensus looks for the trade deficit to widen to $77.6 billion after shrinking more than expected to $73.8 billion in October.

Wednesday, the US ADP employment report for December is expected to see private payrolls up 134,000 after a gain of 146,000 the month before.

Thursday, China’s producer price index is estimated to be a muted 0.1 percent rise on the year.

US jobless claims on the other hand are expected to rise to 216,000 after last week’s unexpected decline to 211,000 from 220,000 the week before.

On Friday, Japan’s real household spending is forecast to post a fourth straight drop in November, down 0.6 percent on year, as flat growth in real wages amid elevated costs for food and other daily necessities left consumers frugal, but the pace of decline is seen decelerating from the 1.3 percent drop in October. Lower temperatures replaced the lingering warm weather, boosting demand for autumn and winter clothing. On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are expected to fall 0.9 percent after surging 2.9 percent in October and slumping 1.3 percent in September.

Canada’s labour force survey is also out on Friday, and is expected to rise a modest 20,000 in employment is the call but it’s not enough to prevent the jobless rate from ticking up to 6.9 percent from 6.8 percent in November.

The week’s finale will be the most watched of economic reports, the US Employment Situation. The consensus on December payrolls looks for a gain of 157,000 and for the jobless rate to stay steady at 4.2 percent. Private payrolls are seen up 130,000. These numbers would be consistent with a general cooling trend in the employment market after a few months of readings skewed by weather and strikes. Earnings are seen cooling to a 0.3 percent rise on the month after surging 0.4 percent in November.

 

Econoday

[Anonymous]

Rabobank Research –

EUR/USD – parity watch
3 January 2025 12:45 RaboResearch

EUR/USD has plunged from a high near 1.1214 in late September to a low yesterday around 1.0226.

https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/q011461983-eur-usd-parity-watch

[GVI Forex 2]

I was just asked where I get my chart levels from as EURUSD bounced off 1.0273 (see below)… last 1.0292

They come from my Amazing Trader charting algo

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD pop and drop on the ISM… 1.0288 break confirms the top,… see if 1.0279 can hold… if not then 1.0264-68-73… looks like a case where algos ran stops above 1.0303 and then took the elevator down

[GVI Forex 2]

Next up ISM PMI… USD down on the day except vs CAD… stocks up but day is young… EURUSD so far not confirming (see prior update)… 1,03 is pivotal

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 15 MIN CHART –Out of steam?

Retracement showing signs of running out of steam… needs to break the trendline and 1.0279 (target) to confirm

[Anonymous]

Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Streaming Chart

See the Weekly one at link.

I’d say very bad for European equities, indexes more than else.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/dutch-ttf-gas-c1-futures-streaming-chart

[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

US equity futures gain, USD is a little lower ahead of US ISM Manufacturing

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses are generally lower whilst US futures gain modestly.

USD is a little lower, holding around the 109.00 mark.

Mild divergence in fixed income, USTs a little higher whilst EGBs are pressured

Commodities fail to benefit from a softer Dollar as crude gives back recent strength.

Try Newsquawk for 7 Days Free

[Anonymous]

“The global gas balance remains tight with little flexibility to absorb any significant market tightening effects so it is possible to see prices rise substantially in the coming weeks,” said James Waddell, head of European gas and global LNG at Energy Aspects.

Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, was little changed at €50.20 a megawatt-hour at 8:41 a.m. in Amsterdam.

European Gas Set for Weekly Gain as Supply Risks Rattle Market

[GVI Forex 2]

GBPUSD ONE HOUR CHART – DAY 2 CONSOLIDATION

Very similar update to the EURUSD

Thursday’ breakdown through 1.25 leaves 1.2457 as key resistance. Treat any bounce as a retracement unless 1.2457+ is regained.

On the other side, the deck is cleared of key stops until 1.2352 so call it consolidation as long as it trades within 1.2352-1.2457.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD ONE HOUR CHART – DAY 2 OF 2025

Thursday’ breakdown leaves 1.0334 as the key resistance level, treat any bounce as a retracement unless 1.0334+ is regained.

On the other side, the deck is cleared of key stops until 1.0224 so call it consolidation as long as it trades within 1.0224-1.0334.

[Mtl JP]

Always … some losers and some winners
–
What Next for US LNG After Ukraine Gas Transit Halts?
By Alex Kimani – Jan 02, 2025, 3:00 PM CST
Exports of Russian gas via pipelines running through Ukraine finally came to an end on New Year’s Day.
Ukraine will lose up to $1 billion a year in transit fees from Russia – Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in gas sales.
The United States is likely to emerge as the biggest winner of the unfolding situation in Europe.

srce.: oilprice.com

[Anonymous]

„We need gigawatts“ EURUSD

The German energy industry is calling for the expansion of gas-fired power capacity, and a reduction in the electricity tax. It wants the next government to move quickly after the February election.

Berlin, January 02, 2025, 1:02: Uhr
https://www.boersen-zeitung.de/english/gigawatts

[Anonymous]

What does he says? EURUSD 1.0250 iw key support …
Beware low liquidity risk adjustments later on.
P

Why J.D. Vance Wants a Weak Dollar. Is That a Good Idea?

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/why-jd-vance-wants-a-weak-dollar-is-that-a-good-idea.html

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Monthly – End of the Year

So here it comes:

Technically speaking, we have two Major Supports below:

1.01500 & 0.95350

If taken out, our target will be in 0.75 area

Major Resistance is at 1.12500

My opinion – It will take a dive.

Continue reading…

[Mtl JP]

Is it euro that being punked or is it USD that is being loved ?

[GVI Forex 2]

The last time EURUSD traded 1.02xx was in 2022 where the low waa .9534

[GVI Forex 2]

Ciited earler

EURUSD 1.02 targeted while below 1.0350… 1.03 now becomeS pivotal

GBPUSD 1.2298 = 2024 low… 1.24 now becomes pivotal