[GVI Forex 2]

NEWSQUAWK US OPEN

European equities lifted by Tech/Luxury updates, JPY bid as BoJ hike bets mount, US Retail Sales due

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses opened on a strong footing and remain at highs, with Tech and Luxury among top performers; US futures mixed whilst NQ leads.

USD mixed vs. peers, JPY leads as BoJ hike bets mount after reports noted that BoJ is said to see a good chance of a January rate hike barring a major market rout, following Trump’s inauguration.

Gilts gap lower despite soft GDP, USTs await data and Treasury Secretary nominee Bessent’s confirmation hearing.

Crude takes a breather while base metals cheer risk appetite.

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[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

I will just ignore tomorrow’s Data – as I always do…

Close above 1.03000 will call for another attempt Up (limited to 1.03500)

Close below 1.02850 opens a road for another test of 1.01800 – trading wise: watch to bail out around 1.02050

[Mtl JP]

Next week on Monday at this time i.e about half hour after inauguration
who wants to posit on

10-yr yield ______
eurusd price _____

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0279-86 needs to hold or a void opens to 1.0238

In GBPUSD, 1.2200 needs to hold or door opens to a 1.2144 risk.

[GVI Forex 2]

EUR back to square one at 1.0300

[GVI Forex 2]

Let’s put in all in perpective

A 0.1% mOVe in core inflation y/y sparked some big moves, especially in stocks and bonds AND CHANGE IN fED EXPECTATIONS

I will leave this for another discussion so just think of the logic behind the reaction to a small miss in the data.

FWIW EURUSD has so far been unabLe to regaIn 1.0350, USDJPY bounced off my AT support…. buf for now the starch has been taken out of the dollar

And Pres Trump has yet to take office!!

[GVI Forex 2]

THe old adage “it’s not the news but the reaction that counts” plaYed true to form today… US 10 year last at 4.663%

USDJPY remains the outperformer, GBPUSD and AUD/NZD 2nd in line.

See earlwr USDJPY poST… TESTING NEXT SUPPORT

EURUSD up with a lag, would need to clear 1.0358 to accelerate the upside.

[Rafe]

EURUSD:-

My Long Term forecast for EURUSD is as follows:

There is solid resistance @ 1.1036, which is the recommended level from which to short this pair. Shorts can be initiated at lower levels if resistance proves too strong. The markets have taken a breather @ 1.0323 awaiting the outcome of Trump’s Inauguration ceremony and markets are at the same time gathering downside momentum towards the first target @ 0.9612. Below 0.9612 there is nothing but solid support target @ 0.8188.

A breach above 1.1036 would negate my views and would call for thorough re-evaluation of macroeconomic fundamentals.

Comments and Opinions appreciated.

GL GT!

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – LEVELS TO WATCH

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Tip:

When you see 2 currencies move in opposite directions vs the dollar you can assume there are real money flows/orders behind the moves. (EURUSD UP, USDJPY UP, => EURJPY UP)

[Rafe]

EURUSD:- There may be small short term profit opportunities for this pair no doubt but the big opportunities to short this pair will come when euro tests 1.12 for parity or close enough to it to say the least. I’ll check it out tomorrow and post my forecast then.

*Note* I have been making medium to long term forecasts in recent times as the short term daily movements are not really worthy of forecasting (or even worth trading) in my humble opinion… I prefer to make a long throw from the other side of the football field into a basketball sized hoop if you know what I mean…

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.02650, 1.02350 & 1.02050

Resistances : 1.03050, 1.03400 & 1.03750

Just for a moment leave aside all these numbers and look at 1.03500 as a kind of pivotal.

Pattern wise – we will be looking at more Up attempts in next 24h , and depending on the level EUR can reach we’ll know are we going to test 1.01800 again.

Everything below 1.03500 is in favour if it, but if above things might change.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – RETRACEMENT?

While there are layers of resistance (blue lines) above 163.19, this is the level that needs to hold to make this strong bounce just a retraceme

[GVI Forex 2]

Quick summary

USDJPY remains stuck just below 158… EURUSD (and EURJPY) has been an outperformer… stocks slipping…suggests position adjutments and a bit of a squeeze on EUR shorts (AUD and CAD also firmer), still jusat a retracement

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1 HOUR CHART – Retracement view

Treating the upside as a retracement unlessa 1.0324 is taken out.

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

Mixed bag for the dollar after the late day selloff yesterday… JPY and GBP (note firmer EURGBP) underperforming,

However, it does show how hyper sensitive markets are to headline news,  especially anything ti do with tariffs..

Next key event, US CPI on Wednesday,

[Mtl JP]

re …”For today resistance is at 1.02500″…

EURO H: 1.0277ish
now back to 1.0251 —- new short opportunity
s/l your resposability

[GVI Forex 2]

The mere mention of gradual tariffs (see below) was enough to spark a reaction BUT these posts were gems (suggestion: pay attention when Bobby posts)… low today was 1.01777

January 10, 2025 at 4:02 pm#17592
In reply to: Forex Forum
Belgrade Bobby

EURUSD Weekly

Let’s look at the big picture:

Last line of defence for EUR is at 1.01800

Folliwed up today with

January 13, 2025 at 12:21 pm#17697
In reply to: Forex Forum
Belgrade Bobby

EURUSD 4h

1.01800 reached and breached – now we have to see is it going to close below it this week…

As long as it holds, game field is between 1.01800 and 1.03400

Below it targets immediately 1.00800

For today resistance is at 1.02500

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0199

ballsy traders looking to short the dog, probably against 1.0250/60

[GVI Forex 2]

Attack on UK bonds taking a breather and that has seen some EURGBP back off from the earlier .8424 high (last .8393), giving GBPUSD a bid abiove 1.21 while keeping EURUSD on its backfoot.