[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

From yesterday’s Week Ahead :

EURUSD Week Ahead

Resistances at : 1.07900 , 1.08350 and 1.09250

Supports at : 1.07400, 1.07200 and 1.06950

Pattern wise, Resistance at 1.07900 should Hold, and Down move should continue…

 

They came, they touched and they bumped ( 1.07894)

We need it to go through 1.07500 to confirm the pattern and continue down.

Let’s see how it’s played…

 

[GVI Forex 2]

This article is worth trading as it covers the week ahead

Morning Bid: China markets look like they need another holiday

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD daily chart – major trend down but consolidating

1.0805 is the key level as it appears not just on the daily but on multipole time grant charts

There is a trendline at 1.0793 but 1.0805 is the key on top.

Only a firm break and 1.08+ then being established would suggest the low (1.0696) is ion for now.

Take your pick of support within 1.07-1.98 with 1.0730 being the only one worth noting ahead of the key low.

[SF Monedge]

Our friends at Gtwo3 continue to notice a lack of new sellers in both Euro and Japanese Yen futures; therefore in their view the nearby contracts remain bullish.

They also note that the Gold futures dip under 2000 last week lacked new sellers, which likely kept the market bullish for now.

[Mtl JP]

Elvira Nabiullina, Bank of Russia representing President Putin VS Janet Yellen, US Sec of the Treasury representing President Biden

• Says leaders see value of tapping ‘economic value’ of assets
• Treasury chief also urges House to pass aid bill for Ukraine

Yellen had lunch with ECB President Christine Lagarde Monday in Washington and met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week alongside President Joe Biden.
“These are topics I’ve discussed,” she said. “I’m not going to elaborate on private conversations, but all of us recognize that an ongoing, committed support for Ukraine is essential.”

Yellen DFiscussed Russian Asset Seizure With European Leaders Bbrg Feb 14, 2024

Oh … and lest I forget about the “on the other hand” ….“There are a range of risks involved and potential adverse repercussions, and we’re studying those very carefully and thinking through how these can be mitigated,” Yellen said

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Week Ahead

Resistances at : 1.07900 , 1.08350 and 1.09250

Supports at : 1.07400, 1.07200 and 1.06950

Pattern wise, Resistance at 1.07900 should Hold, and Down move should continue…but is it going to happen like that this time ?? Well, this Down trend that started on 27.12.2023. doesn’t have the usual angle for it…although it is very similar , still…makes me cautious…

1.07900 is The Major point right now, as break of it would lead the pair straight to 1.09250 , even 1.09400 . Mind you, we would still be in Sell mode !

Now let’s talk about the Ideal development – Res at 1.07900 holds it’s ground – we have a sharp drop to 1.07 area and continue down , with the 1.05600 in cross hairs.

So let’s see how it develops on Monday….

 

[Mtl JP]

Elvira Nabiullina, Bank of Russia
–
“Essentially, (confiscation) is a breach of the basic principles of central bank reserve protection,” Nabiullina said. “In international law, this is one of the key, basic principles of immunity of central bank assets from coercive measures of seizure.

“In our view, deviation from this principle, will lead to the, albeit gradual, undermining of the system of international finance and the position of reserve currencies in the world.”

Confiscating Russia’s assets would send negative signal, says central bank Reuters, February 16, 2024

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0776 and 10-yr 4.281%
on my toy, NY close

to borrow from jerome & C0.: need more incoming data (hahaha)
but that is not how degenerate traders and animal spirits trade

[Mtl JP]

odds are
–
with euro frolicking with 86 – week’s open – one can not be surprised at some sudden wild price swings into the close

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0783
–
puppy s toying with week’s open price point
– close above would suggest more uP for the euro

[SF Monedge]

Our friends @GTWO3 are looking for EUR/JPY to turn lower from the 162.00 area as the rally from 12/27 is short covering rather than new buyers  …

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY Daily Chart

Testing res at 161.86

Question is can EURJPY make a run at…

Key res 163.71 and 164.30

To do so, either USDJPY would need to move sharply higher, EURUSD would need to move sharply higher, a combination of the two or EURUSD would need to lag a sharp move up in USDJPY. It’s simple algebra.

Whatever the case, given broader USD trends, it would probably take JPY weakness for the key EURJPY resistance to come into play.

[SF Monedge]

I think Eur/Jpy is targetng 162.20 (long term balance point in our model which is repeatedly visited).  Perhaps not today but so far so good.

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.22 / Euro 1.0772

bonds definitely driving.

sidenote: that euro is upiddy makes me chuckle in light of earlier ECB yakker yakkings about june start of easing. hahaha

[Mtl JP]

DLRx 104.26 / 10-yr 4.2950

EURO 1.0769
in the s/t puppy s still in bull mode
especially IF it closes N of 1.0785

Sup 1.07

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 1.07200 is still The key that needs to be taken to unlock the continuation of the downtrend….

[Swiss Frank]

EUR: It’s bid on the crosses and offered against the usd. Cross plays are slightly winning for the time being….

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – looking at the chart bellow, and in my own station, I have to admit that time wise – Rule of Thumb –  there is a chance for the pair to break Up and change two months old trend ( Daily chart)

I am pretty sure that the solution will present itself after today’s data.

But what I also see is the fact that on the Monthly chart, the pattern suggests  that we are in the early stages of a New Downtrend creation, that if comes through will open the road for as low as 0.75 area…Lots , I know…

Of course this is not helping in our daily trades, but just wanted to shine some light on the issue.

What I know for sure ( from the experience ) is that we can break above that downtrend line, even spend some time above 1.08 , but if that happens , 1.09450 will come up as a next level for unloading the EUR….and then we’ll all see clear downtrend forming .

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD: Bid or Bid in an offered?

Daily chart

1.0789 = 100 day mva (light green)

1.0805 = top of last leg down also a daily trendline’

1.0824 = 200 day mva (yellow)

Support 1.0755-60

Key support 1.0723

[Mtl JP]

heading into NY session
–
US 10-YR 4.261% +0.021 / DLRx 104.14 lets call it “soft” / euro 107.80 edging uP