[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

Some pre-BoJ meeting cold feet have JPY trading weaker

Offsets out of EURJPY buying are helping so far to keep EURUSD above 1.0867 (see post below)

Rising red AT lines show risk to the upside as long as it stays above 148.00-04 but…

Major resistance is not until the upper 150+ so not close to key levels.

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

European traders may do well to brace themselves for a sell-off on Friday, with equity markets sinking around Asia as investors adjust to the prospect of later and fewer Fed rate cuts this year.

Morning Bid: Rethink on Fed cuts creates tech wobble

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 H0UR CHART

RISK WHILE BELOW 1.09 =>

1.0867-1.0831/39-1.0795

1.0900+ negates risk

As the chart shows 1.0867 is a key obstacle.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD

Supports at  1.08750, 1.07950 and 1.07500

Agree Frank – this might be the start of new Downtrend .

Still, I am cautious as long as we hold above given supports.

Daily

Weekly

[Swiss Frank]

if eur doesn’t hold 1.0820-1.0780 the multiple tops above 1.10 going back to early 2023 starts to look like the mother of all tops on the daily…..

[Swiss Frank]

Position adjustments as result of I just don’t see lower rates anytime soon. It will be higher for longer especially in the short end.
– Out of silver and platinum longs from several weeks ago. Will re-enter towards bottom of the ranges.
– Out of short CHF cross exposures. I still think CHF over time will be the weakest link but think in the sort term position adjustments may offer better entry levels.
– New fractional long usd/chf and short eur/cad time frame weeks but not averse to seeing short term acceleration….

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR – 1.10 FAILURE?

The failure to reach 1.10 has put EURUSD on the defwnive with an offered bias today as long as it stays below 1.0945.

Key level is at 1.0900 with 1.0867 as the next target below it.

This has been a week of chop and false starts but it looks like the upside has lost its steam.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – 1.09300 turning point

[Belgrade Bobby]

Hard to do anything on EURUSD – seems like a holiday…market waiting for data in 40 min Economic Calendar

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

Supports at 1.09300 & 1.08700

Resistances at : 1.09650 , 1.09800 & 1.10500

For the pair to continue Upwards and target 1.10500 , it has to stay Tomorrow above 1.09300. Any break bellow would lead it to Channel Support at 1.08700.

1.09650 is a Major Obstacle on the road to new highs .

In the case it shows as a tough cookie, EURUSD will start the Inevitable deeper correction .

Buying it above 1.09300 , with the very tight stop just bellow it is the strategy if you feel the need to be involved.

The other approach is wait and see, and if 1.09300 taken out, Sell for the run to 1.08700 area.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – two obstacles – 1.09500 and 1.09800

[Mtl JP]

10-yr 4.176%

EURO 1.0942
I am baised BoD while N of 1.09

[Mtl JP]

euro 1.0941 … since my biased UP post about 40 mins ago (ooops not 40 mins 2.5 hrs or so)

how s THAT for a 5 pip trade uh ?

clap clap cheers yeaAAHH ieeha !

now it can slip back some for a new BoD
all thy risk trading parameters, naturally

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4-Hour Chart

Red AT lines are now dominating as pre-BpJ trading sees USDJPY firm back towards 148 and offsets giving EURUSD some support.

Levels are clear on the chart with a bid while above 161.56 and the trendline.

These are fickle times ahead of the BoJ but for now there seems to be some cold feet from the JOY longs.

[Belgrade Bobby]

5 Pip trades

When we talk about idea – strategy to trade for cca 5 pips profit per trade, I have to say that it is Real.

I have been trading that way in last 10 years constantly , developing different systems and learning from every single mistake that I made. It is very demanding way of trading, both physically and psychologically – and probably that is a bigger problem than achieving 5 pips…

You can use from 2 min to 5 min chart ( 1 minute is untradeable in real market conditions )

Firm Risk management has to be applied :

R/R minimum 1:2  – preferably 1:3

Stop Loss pre set and never changed

Profit taking manually depending on the situation ( experience )

Leverage High to Extremely High ( so from 1:100 – 1:500 otherwise you are wasting your time )

Never change the trading plan in between ( you enter on a signal of 3 min and decide to stick around longer as you saw something on 5,10,15 min chart – you’re dead )

Never hesitate – just execute – or from +3 you go to -5 in seconds

Probability of your system has to be over 80%

You can’t chose which signals you’re  gonna trade and which not – you must execute all of them. Or you’ll end up picking the wrong ones.

To be able to come to such a system, you have to use very simple techniques – anything even remotely complicated takes too much time – trade gone ( also, no time to do your yoga exercise prior to entering the position – coffee is ok as long as it is on the table and exactly in the same place …every single day, or you gonna have it all over your comp )

Trading can be done in hour and half to tops 2 h at the time..anything more, you are lost.

Important – you have to have a broker that gives you max 0.5 spread, or fixed 0.0 with the commission .

Depending on the day, you end up with everything between 2-3 and 30+ pips

You trade only in the bracket between Europe open and NY close

High liquidity will pump up your profits, but there are days with Low liquidity that made my day big time – somehow clearer to trade…

[Mtl JP]

10-yr Yield 4.143% | 4:39 AM EDT
new day, maybe new way

eurdlr sentiment, so far, technically: UP

[Mtl JP]

Reuters Mar 13, 2024 at 7:55 am GMT
ECB’s Villeroy: spring interest rate cut remains probable

PARIS, March 13 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank will probably start cutting rates during the spring, between April and June 21, as the “victory” against inflation is in sight, …. Lagarde earlier this month hinted strongly that a long-awaited rate cut would be more likely to happen at the central bank’s meeting in early June, rather than in April

EURO 1.0930

[GVI Forex 2]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

Big Japanese companies have agreed in full to union pay demands, a sign that workers could perhaps have pushed a bit harder, but also that wage momentum could encourage a historic policy shift by the Bank of Japan.

MORNING BID EUROPE-Japan wage deals put BOJ at centre stage

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 30 Minute Chart

if you are looking for a reason why GBPUSD bounced off its low

1) First look at my GBPUSD post below

20 Look at this EURGBP chart (you can also look at other GBP crosses but I like this one as it is pretty clear where the flow is going).

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – 1.08900 might come as a handy Supp