[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD – nice break through that stubborn support – allow for 1.08650 –  bellow all doors are open 😀

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0890
–
puppy looks asleep here above 1.0875 and 1.0850 Sup
Res at 1.09

My current relatiuonship with this puppy is ambivalence.

[Mtl JP]

augustin says
If … i.e. maybe. speculative opinion, no guarantee
–
Fed and other banks to make ‘major progress’ on rates this year, BIS chief says – cnbc
– The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank look poised to make “major progress” in cutting interest rates this year, says the central bank of central banks.

Agustín Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, told CNBC on Monday that major central banks had so far made “very impressive advances” in lowering inflation and suggested that they could soon shift toward a looser monetary policy stance.

“If everything goes fine, I think that, certainly this year, we will see major progress, especially toward the second part of the year,” Carstens told Annette Weisbach

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBP 15-Minute Chart — Using Crosses to Trade SPOTFX

Notice how EURGBP’s failure to hold above .8560 (cited earlier) has seen it back off (see falling blue AT lines) has coincided with EURUSD losing its bid above 1.09 (last 1.0892).

I call this using crosses to trade spotFX 101.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4 H

Without getting into Res & Sups now, problem with this picture is that the Trend line bellow was violated, but they NEVER closed bellow it. I don’t want to be a devil’s advocate here, just pay attention to it. Might mean nothing, but at the end looking at past performance one would always say : of yes, they have never closed below the trend line…it was obvious…

So, as long as the Support stays intact, be very  very careful.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 30 Minute Chart – YAWN

EURUSD is so far winning the tug-of-war, trading just above 1.09 in what is still a market on hold ahead of key events. Note the red AT lines showing the risk has been on the upside, now dependent on 1.0896 holding to keep a bid, stronger if 1.09 can become support.

As the chart shows, with little above the market until 1.0946, there is little to go for in terms of stops, leaving the focus on 1.09 to set the tone

[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART

The key flow giving EURUSD support is a firmer EURJPY ahead of the BoJ decision early Tuesday.

If you want to sell JPY and not force the BoJ to intervene, one way is to follow the path of least resistance, which is on its crosses.

The chart shows 3 levels of resistance above the market and on the downside, needing to hold the 162.17 level to keep a bid.

As SF Monege pointed out. the prudent approach is to step back and let the dust settle on the BoJ decision as all that is certain is that there should be volatility following it.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURGBO 1 HOUR CHART

Flows into EUR crosses seem to be behind the better EURUSD tone (testing 1.09,) in a market biding its time ahead of key monetary policy decisions this week.

This created a tug-of-war with the USD caught in the middle.

One of the crosses is a firmer EURGBP (in a tight range), so far pausing just below .8560 resistance, which stands in the way of the .8578 level, the top of the current range.

It looks like this cross finds a bid on dips as long as it stays above .8545-50.

[GVI Forex 2]

THIS WEEK’S MARKET-MOVING EVENTS (all days local)

The Bank of Japan, given an uplift in inflation and strong gains in wage negotiations, is expected to tighten policy, a move that would dominate Tuesday’s session and upstage what is expected to be steady policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

There are no expectations for looser policy from the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday nor the Bank of England on Thursday, though there is some talk that the Swiss National Bank, given noticeable weakness in Swiss inflation, could cut rates at its meeting on Thursday.

Slowing for industrial production and retail sales are the consensus calls for Chinese data on Monday that will cover the combined months of January and February. Yet such results would not be expected to trigger a further rate cut in the country’s loan prime rates on Wednesday.

Canadian CPI on Tuesday is expected to re-accelerate slightly in contrast to expected slowing for UK consumer prices on Wednesday. Japanese CPI data are expected to be mixed but rise sharply at the headline level on Friday.

New Zealand GDP on Thursday is expected to be marginally positive while Australia’s labour force survey, also on Thursday, is expected to rebound. Both UK and Canadian retail sales on Friday are expected to be weak. PMI flashes on Thursday are expected to show marginal improvement for Germany and for the Eurozone as a whole.

Econoday

[Frano Grgic]

EURUSD Analysis Today 16.3.2024 – EURUSD Price Prediction | EURUSD Week Ahead Forecast #eurusd

[GVI Forex 2]

Newsquawk Week Ahead March 18-22nd

MON: Chinese Retail Sales (Feb), EZ Final CPI (Feb)

TUE: BoJ Announcement, RBA Announcement; German ZEW Survey (Mar), Canadian CPI (Feb)

WED: FOMC Announcement, PBoC LPR, BCB Announcement, CNB Announcement, BoI Announcement, Japan Market Holiday (Vernal Equinox Day); UK CPI (Feb), New Zealand GDP (Q4)

THU: BoE Announcement, SNB Announcement, Norges Announcement, CBRT Announcement, European Council Meeting; EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Mar), US Philly Fed (Mar), New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), Japanese CPI (Feb).

FRI: Japan’s Rengo (labour union) 2nd Pay Tally, CBR Announcement, European Council Meeting; Australian Jobs Report (Feb), UK Retail Sales (Feb), German Ifo Survey (Mar)

Click below for an in-depth analysis by Newsquawk

Newsquawk Week Ahead March 18-22nd – Highlights include: FOMC, BoJ, RBA, BoE, SNB, China activity data, PBoC LPR & Nvidia GTC

[Mtl JP]

which, translated into degenerat-ese, would mean

EURO to 1.0810/00 AND – failing there – clopiddy clopp to low 1.07ish and 00

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0887
–
parked just abouve earlier 1.0875

the risk to the puppy going higher is jerome
IF he somehow thins out the smoke of recent likely rate cuts later in 2024 smoke signalings

CME Fed Watch Tool: 55%

[Swiss Frank]

Hah…. Thanks, I think. Funny day. Just when I thought ok we’re set for some across the board directional follow thru -> Nothing.

Lets review
– Quad witching today.
– US yields higher.
– BoJ guy hints at policy rate change (higher) at next weeks meeting.
– Dovish comments on economy and rates (lower) from ECB guys.

Yet-> JPY weaker, EUR stronger against some flat against others, Copper Silver higher. Not a whole lot of logic found here.

FX market (read EUR) remains as non-comital as it’s been over the last year. I think it’ll stay that way with a bias against the weak links (chf) over the next few weeks.

Stocks I think are running on air which could see a downdraft the next six weeks or so. That said is it really worth trying to time the stock market as in the long run it only goes up.

Bonds not going up any time in the forseeable future. There’s A LOT of people that enjoy earning an effortless 5%……

[Mtl JP]

My current view is that the picture should be sufficiently clearer when the Governing Council meets in June (as we will have a lot more information – particularly on wage dynamics – available in our deliberations) to give us sufficient confidence to make monetary less restrictive. – Makhlouf

[Mtl JP]

scardycrow crows:
should be . then again may not be
–
March 15 (Reuters) -The European Central Bank should be able to cut interest rates in June, policymaker Gabriel Makhlouf said on Friday.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 4 HOUR

I was asked why the dollar is not moving up with higher yields today.

My answer: Look at the JPY where weak crosses are giving other currencies, such as the EURUSD, some offset support.

So, take a look at EURJPY, which is testing the next resistance at 162.18.

161.70 is now the key support.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4H

Eur just couldn’t close bellow that support trend line…

This looks very bearish, and calls for at least another attempt for previous low , or near it.

I’ll give it all the way to 1.08650, and if taken out, we are on the road to 1.07950

However, if it holds, we can witness few days of Sideways to Up. Even 1.09200

I am not going to Buy it no matter what.

Sell small time frames

[Mtl JP]

EURO 1.0892
–
puppy has a slight bull tone while abouve 1.0875
personally I do not trust the strenght / fragility of euro buying enthusiasts
maybe if puppy manages to climb N of 1.0910+ might here be a trgt beacon at 1.0950

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD held just below 1.09

See my March 15, 2024 at 1:37 am