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EURJPY 4 HOUR CHART – Holds major resistance
With EURJPY one of the drivers of the EURUSD rally (among other crosses), it pays to take a look as the cross has backed off after a test of the major 161.17 level (see chart).
This has helped steady EURUSD while USDJPY slipped below 148.
Minor support 159.40 and 158.70
USDJPY WEEKLY CHART – Black hole
After lagging and at times diverging the past few days vs the EUR, JPY has firmed, both vs the dollar and on its crosses,
As you can see by this weekly chart, there is a large black hole on the downside, leaving the focus on the pivotal 148 level to set the tone and dictate whether it can make a run at 146.50 and 145.00 or not..
As I have noted, when you see a big move in USDJPY, especially when it diverges with what others are trading vs the USD, it generally involves a real money cross flow.
Intra=day range: 147.70-149.33
EURUSD DAILY CHART – Watch 1.08
With the breakout through 1.0630 leaving little until the next target at 1.0936, 1.08 is one of those pivotal levels that will dictate whether the market can build further momentum to make a run at it.
Next focus is on the ECB meeting where a 25bps rate cut is a done deal. Key will be forward guidance in light of the sharp rise in bond yields following the increased government spending plans on defense announced this week.
In any case, while 1.08 will set the tone, there should be support on any decent dip as long as it trades above 1.0630.
Intra-day range so fat 1.0780-1.0822 (almost a symmetric 20 pip range around 1.08),
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows
The dollar traded softer overnight before some caution set in ahead of the ECB decision. Most currencies are currently showing only modest changes except the JPY, which has been the outperformer (extended low below 148).
Key focus is on the bond market where higher German yields are pulling other country yields higher as well.
Pivotal levels to watch end in 8: EURUSD 1.08, USDJPY 148.
Light U.S. calendar (weekly jobless claims) ahead of the key .S. jobs report on Friday
US stocks currently down, bond yields up…not a good comination
Keep on eye on headlines, specifically tariff replayed
EURUSD Weekly
EUR goes straight for 1.08300 –important support that turned to resistance.
It is the last test/hurdle , before it opens for attack at 1.11800 – Major Resistance and downtrend line, and if so I don’t think that it will hold this time.
We might be in for some serious EUR rally.
But as I said on Monday – this week is filled with data/news/statements that can turn it all in a second.
However, if I understood Trump well, we will be talking “weak dollar” for quite some time from now on.
US OPEN
Global Sentiment lifted on tariff optimism, European stocks at highs & Bunds hammered on German spending plansGood morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 5 things you need to know for today’s market.
5 Things You Need to Know
Sentiment lifted after the US Commerce Secretary suggested Trump could potentially reduce tariffs on Canada and Mexico, perhaps as soon as Wednesday.
European bourses at session highs; DAX 40 +3% outperforms; US equity futures broadly higher with the RTY +1.2%.
EUR surges on German spending plans, DXY around 1.05 after breaking below its 200DMA.
Bunds battered by Merz’s fiscal reform, USTs await data and tariff updates.
Crude subdued continuing recent action & failing to benefit from China’s support which has bolstered base metals.EURUSD 4h
Frankly I hate it when they do it all overnight…
Target / Resistance waiting at 1.07350/400
Supports: 1.06950, 1.06750 & 1.06200
This is the Prime example of one of those: you got the direction right, you got the levels even better…but timing…timing sucks…and you can only eat your 6.
So you sit back, try to relax and not rush into something that will hurt you.
Using my platform as a HEATMAP shoes
The dollar trading weaker, led by the EURUSD, which is in a breakout mode.\
EUR firmer on crosses as well.
USDJPY failed to hold a move above 150.
German bond yields are sharply higher after deal to ease debt restraints (otherwise known as the debt brake)
DAX is up sharply as well.
Zelensky kisses up to Trump by showing a willingness to negotiate a peace deal.
Trump’s address to Congress unveiled no new policies.
.Trade war still on but CAD and MXN rebound suggest caution and hope it may be a negotiating tactic
Date calendar: US ADP employment and ISM services PMI.
