[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures are mixed & USD steady ahead of US PPI & geopolitical updates
 

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4 Things You Need to Know

European bourses opened lower but have gradually picked up; US futures are modestly lower/flat.

USD is steady ahead of PPI metrics, fleeting EUR softness as German political tensions mount.

Bunds are modestly lower awaiting the Bundestag debate while USTs look to PPI and shutdown developments.

Industrial commodities softer on tariff woes; spot gold inches closer to all-time-highs

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 1.0880

Held above the pivotal 1.0850 (low 1.0860)_

Back above 1.0886 would be needed to shift focus back to 1.09
.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD 4 HOUR CHART – Out of steam

What caught my eye is the failure to trade above 1.09 (high 1.0897) after past two days testing above it.

This chart shows a classic AT (Amazing Trader) down ladder pattern (falling blue lines) with a risk for 1.0800-35 while below 1,0875. BUT would have to first get through the pivotal 1.050 level first.

Back above 1.09 would be needed to restore the BID.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP shows

A reversal of fortune from this time yesterday

JPY firmer, both vs the dollar (USDJPY back below 148) and on its crosses (note EURJPY weaker) as mood turns back to risk off.

Dollar a touch firmer elsewhere. EURUSD so far failed to trade 1.09+ after 2 days testing above it  Commodity currencies trading weaker.

Looking ahead

US PPI and Weekly jobless claims

G7 foreign ministers meet in Quebec amid rising trade/tariff tensions

Looming U.S. shutdown at 12:01 AM Saturday unless there is an agreement to extend funding the government

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports: 1.08750 & 1.08500

Resistances: 1.09150, 1.09350 & 1.09500

So far this looks as a sideways consolidation, but it can quickly become full blown correction.

1.08500 is a very important level now.

If below next stop is at 1.07500

[GVI Forex 2]

With stocks bouncing from the lows, bond yields following, the FX market is not sure whAT PATH TO FOLLOW while USDJPY remains well of the 149+ high but still up on the day above 148.

EURUSD is back to about unchanged on the day in what seems to be setting up to be an FX range afternoon with the focus mainly on US rquities.

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD 4h

Supports : 1.08750, 1.08500 & 1.08050

Resistances: 1.09050, 1.09200 & 1.09500

Sharp Uptrend lost right now, and we are looking at two options:

Sideways correction

Deeper one all the way to 1.07650

If it finishes the day above 1.08500 we should have another Uptick tomorrow

[Alex Lugano]

ECB Facing ‘Exceptionally High’ Levels of Uncertainty, Lagarde Says

The European Central Bank is confronting a new, more volatile world in which it must combine agility in responding to shocks with clarity in outlining how it is likely to react to a range of possible outcomes, President Christine Lagarde said Wednesday.

Much of that new volatility was traceable to U.S. President Trump’s administration.

“Established certainties about the international order have been upended,” she said. “We have seen political decisions that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago. Our expectations have indeed been swept aside in the last few years, and in the last few weeks in particular.”

[GVI Forex 2]

Just in case:

EURUSD SUPPORTS BELOW 1.0878-82

1.0835

1.0804

1.0764

[GVI Forex 2]

I can’t resist posting this EURUSD chert… 15 minute candle post-CPI range 1.0931=1.0878

A solid move below 1.0880 would be needed to cool the upside and confirm a pause.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

US OPEN

US equity futures higher & USD incrementally gains ahead of US CPI; JPY modestly lags

Good morning USA traders, hope your day is off to a great start! Here are the top 4 things you need to know for today’s market.

4    Things You Need to Know

·     European bourses are in the green as sentiment in the complex improves; US futures are also higher with the NQ slightly outperforming.

·     USD is a little firmer ahead of US CPI data, JPY lags peers.

·     Bonds are bearish overall amid supply, inflation updates & German fiscal developments.

·     Oil and base metals firmer, gold trades sideways ahead of US CPI.

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[GVI Forex 2]

USDJPY 4 HOUR CHART –  Back above 148

It is hard to fight real money flows that seem to be driven by JPY crosses, such ad EURJPY, which is building on yesterday’s breakout above 161.27 and helping to pull USDJPY above 148.

While damage is not fatal (i.e. it would need to move above 151.30 for an outside week), the solid move through 148.00-40 has broken the downward momentum

So, expect support if 148+ holds bit would need to get through 150.00-20 to suggest anything more than a retracement.

Watch the risk on/off mood as the former seems to be a factor today.

 

–

[Belgrade Bobby]

EURUSD Daily

1.10 is just a psychological level – all round and nice, but I don’t see anything important before 1.11750.

We have few possible nastiest at 1.10900 & 1.11400

Supports right now at: 1.09050, 1.08900 & 1.08350

[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD may have gotten a lift from Ukraine news (stocks popped as well).

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[GVI Forex 2]

EURUSD TESTING 1.0936… FIRM BREAK (AND CONFIRMED BY 1.0950+) WOULD SETUP A CLEAR PATH TO 1.10.

[GVI Forex 2]

Logic prevailed as sroxks sold off and USDJPY followed

March 11, 2025 at 1:34 pm
GVI Forex

US stocks backing off… weaker JPY if mood turns risk off is inconsistent… much depends on whether the EURJPY order is filled and how stocks trade

[GVI Forex 2]

Now if you want proof of my cross focused Algebra 101 madness roday:

EURUSD 1.0905 (VS 1.0930 HIGH)

USDJPY 147.73 (vs 148.11 high-

EURJPY 161.08 (vs 161.73 high)

Stocks hit an air pocket on downside

[GVI Forex 2]

Here we go… algebra 101

EURUSD buying taking over as EURJPY extends its breakout high_… BUT faces a key resistance at 1.0936

[GVI Forex 2]

US stocks backing off… weaker JPY if mood turns risk off is inconsistent… much depends on whether the EURJPY order is filled and how stocks trade.

[GVI Forex 2]

EURJPY 161.55, USDJPY 148, EURUSD 1.0815

Large order to buy EURJPY 

EURUSD running into resistance above 1.0820

Since EURJPY = EURUSD x USDJPY

If EURUSD can’t move higher, the only way for EURJPY to move higher is via a firmer USDJPY

If  148+ proves tough, then the only way EURJPY can move higher is via a firner EURUSD

Note, stocks backing off earlier highs.