[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

The DAX Index Closes 1.26% Higher

In Frankfurt, the DAX Index went up by 285 points or 1.26 percent on Monday.

Top gainers were Rheinmetall (14.67%), Siemens Energy (3.74%) and Munich RE (2.50%).

Now headlines aside, what can we expect next?

Frankly, this is an uncharted territory and so far it behaved very technical.

Having that fact on mind, now we have to use something that many would laugh at – Thumb analysis…after you laughed long and loud, pay attention :

–          Whenever I want to avoid that laughing I call it Time-Space analysis, and so far it worked like a charm

–          No rally can go on for ever

–          Without a decent correction, we have to assume that any instrument that goes so sharply Up will go down the same way

–          So either a correction soon or it is going to be a classic Blow of Rally

I would like to see DAX testing 22K again

I wouldn’t like to see Savage Profit taking that might end up changing the trend at the end.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

Dax continues to hit new highs – trend that started in late 2024.

And it goes stronger and faster.

So what might be behind this latest run – last 8 days?

Reuters claims : European stocks hover near record high on defence boost
European shares hovered near a record high on Monday, boosted by defence stocks amid growing U.S. calls for the region to amplify military spending for security.

But in my own view – this was all “written” on charts months ago, and especially after DAX broke above 22.000

So Targets are at 23 & 24 K

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

Hanging up there…

For more to come – has to hold above 22.400

Any positive news towards the end of war in Ukraine and some kind of normalisation can fuel it further.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

DAX Surges to New High
Nice move away from support at 22.000 and making it very clear now where it tends to go.

First target in 23.000 area, next 24K

Market sentiment remained upbeat amid strong corporate earnings and optimism over a potential end to the war in Ukraine, though caution persisted over US trade policy.

 

[GVI Forex 2]

It is rare that we like toi give ourselves credit but I poated this article nearly 3 weeks ago and it took time for the markets to catch up to my puzzle.

Is the Trump Effect Impacting the EURUSD and the DAX?

Here is a question? Why has the EURUSD recovered and DAX at record levels given the risk of Trump tariffs. prospect of lower interest rates, an underperforming German economy and political uncertainty in Germany (and France)?

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

This break above 22.000 and momentum to not only hold it above, but to push higher is a very good sign for DAX.

It should be able to reach somewhere between 22.500 & 22.800 , and then any correction can be controlled.

So as far as it moves from 22K – better on the long run.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30

And here we go – above 22.000

If DAX can sustain this momentum ( for that it has to find a footing above 22K), a new universe would open.

That universe has borders between 22K & 24K

I am still very cautious – I need one more day to be certain….

[GVI Forex 2]

After reading this headline and seeing EURUSD spike higher  it reminded me of this blog artcile (see below) which is worth A READ

Source: Newsquawk.com

Is the Trump Effect Impacting the EURUSD and the DAX?

Here is a question? Why has the EURUSD recovered and DAX at record levels given the risk of Trump tariffs. prospect of lower interest rates, an underperforming German economy and political uncertainty in Germany (and France)?

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOIUR CHART –  Back on the march higher

With the opening week gap filled, DAX is on the march again into record high territory.

So, the question is if tariffs and the threat of a trade war are such a risk, why is the DAX continuing its move higher.

22000 is the next obvious target.

‘Keeps a bid while above 21726

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30

High of 21.945 repeated today – now it is a race with time for DAX.

If it doesn’t make it above 22K and stay above it in the same day, Correction is on the cards.

Support is at 21.700 and 21.300 further on.

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOUR CHART – TAKING A PAUSE?

The DAX (GER30) has been a star performer, up each week so far this year. This winning streak will be a key focus this week.

In this regard, the record high set last week at 21946 had yet to be touched today so consolidation while below it.

On the downside, only below 21386 would dent momentum and suggest a pause.

[GVI Forex 2]

Trading Charts of the Week: XAUUSD and DAX

I am always on the lookout for patterns and what would extend them and what would end them. The longer the time frame the stronger the pattern, especially when there is a trend, which should give a clue for shorter-term traders what is the strong side of the marlet.

Both the DAX and XAUUSD have similar patterns, each has 5 up (green)( candles (6 for XAUUSD including Dec) and record highs since the start iof the year.

Watch the low/high for the coming week tk see if this pattern is broken, is broken, or takes a pause Iinside week).

XAUUSD Weekly Chart

 

GER30 Weekly Chart

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER 30

21.945 – new high – close enough to 22K and in my opinion Hero can get some rest now.

Supports : 21.500 & 21.250

I am not a guy to call for a change of trend – ever, until I get some charting facts to support such a claim, but I have to warn you once again – This might be the top and buying it now for some imagined coming Rally is not a way to go.

In the case DAX breaks 22K , it will have to stay above it – so enough time to get some action.

Otherwise you might end up buying a top….

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30

And here it comes – Hero is just below 22.000 ( high so far 21.921 )

Now things are going to become very tricky.

I must repeat aout probability – more and more probability goes in favour of a sizeable correction.

I have started calling for 22K from the moment DAX broke above 21K – hope it is clear from my charts what was the logic.

Last night I mentioned this possibility , with a great probability for a sudden drop from here – so let’s see what happens tomorrow.

Technically – if it breaks above 22.000 and stays above for couple of days, this top channel will be in play.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30

Hero holding Up.

Now joke aside, this is what can happen in coming days:

–          Another test of previous high and failure – simple and everyone would see it ( at least I hope you would)

–          More dangerous variant – New high ( somewhere around 21.900-22.000) and sudden sell off – this kind of development is responsible for at least 50% of clean ups of accounts – pay attention : probability that reaching new high will fuel more of Uptrend is less than 5%

–          95% – this is going to be the top for quite some time

Now you got an idea – control your impulses and don’t daydream.

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30

Dax is still my hero – in spite of all the political upheaval in last couple of days, it is managing to stay above the channel trendline at 21.230.

Now resistance is at 21.500

If survives up here it will target 22.000

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30

After Trump’s Tariffs , then No Tariffs…maybe later tariffs….let’s go back to charts.

And voila – DAX holding in the upper channel – watch 21.200 support.

If Dax consolidates now above that level, within this upper channel, next bus stop will be at around 22K.

[GVI Forex 2]

GER30 4 HOUR CHART – 22000 ON THE RADAR

As Bobby noted

Charting logic – 22.000 target

As much as DAX move from 21.000 support – more space for corrections .

If it hits somehow 23K from this position, it would be ideal…

Using thia chart, expect support on dipa aa long as the trendline holds,

[GVI Forex 2]

Using my platform as a HEATMAP

It’s month end and with stocks up this month, there should be some rebalancing of fx hedges. While I am not privy to such flows, given the surge in the DAX this month, rebalancing would see EUR selling and could account for some of the early EURUSD weakness.

Whatever the case, just be aware of month end erratic price action, especially heading into the 4PM London fix.

With US stocks up this month as well there could be some rebalancing of fx hedges here as well but so far any such flows have been adsorbed.

 

[Belgrade Bobby]

DAX – GER30 Index

Charting logic – 22.000 target

As much as DAX move from 21.000 support – more space for corrections .

If it hits somehow 23K from this position, it would be ideal…