Nasdaq composite: Once again, it’s make-or-break for breadth
Dow futures up slightly, S&P 500 slip, Nasdaq 100 off ~0.5%
Sep NY Fed Manufacturing index 11.5 vs -4.75 estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%
Dollar down; bitcoin off ~2; gold edges up; crude up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~flat at ~3.66%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE: ONCE AGAIN, IT’S MAKE-OR-BREAK FOR BREADTH The Nasdaq composite IXIC is still down more than 5% from its record highs. That said, the tech-laden index is on a five day win streak, and just posted its biggest weekly rise since early-November 2023.
“Possible Bitcoin price drop to $52K rises as BTC derivatives data shows traders losing hope” Mainstream media….
But in my opinion, technically speaking – Close tonight above 59.300 would create a very Bullish Pattern – a perfect ground for attack at 70 K once again.
However , close below 58.200 would call for at least 56K and 50 K soon after.
I believe we should see Bitcoin futures at 6040 in coming weeks though there is decent potential to see 6800 or higher prior. Enjoyed the Ether ETF rolling out the other day. Any participation in crypto on my part at this stage is purely speculative due to them not yet being mature instruments. I realize that upsets the average GenZ and Millennial anarchist who wants them to replace to US Dollar so they can feel like they changed the world and are oh so smart, but those are just the facts. They should transform to being more viable financial instruments over time like moth larvae somewhat in around 2 years from now. Ultimately Stablecoin will dominate the pool of fringe crypto’s in various respects.
On another note I like the buy side of Gold stocks and if you don’t have much money then GROY (Gold Rty Group) from the 1.30’s or perhaps even 1.40’s is decent R/R you can live with even if it doesn’t go your way right away.
Had a brief call with someone I respect tremendously yesterday (Jay) regarding EurGbp. My metrics show the pair remaining offered on buy cycles toward 8450/60 area for now.
On Crypto and the FED and Stablecoin – It is difficult to substantiate the thought that all crypto vehicles will be buried once the use of Stablecoin is established, but the ones that survive will be Bitcoin and a few that help the poor in poor countries, or offer something solidly unique and useful within realistic value of use.
A lot of talk from politicians regarding bank stability should a shock arise during the Powell testimony. As I noted yesterday, major US banks recently roundingly passed stress tests and technology is improving. The one issue concerning me is the effect of a major cyber attack should it occur and/or flat out war with the US and another major power(s), which one would think is unlikely unless some insane person gains access to terrible weaponry. Otherwise the banking industry looks strong.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin
Bitcoin falls further amid sell pressure from German government exchange transfers and Mt. Gox payouts
Bitcoin’s price has fallen further over the past 24 hours as Mt Gox payouts and the German government’s transfers of BTC to crypto exchanges have rattled markets.
I bought Bitcoin at 25k a while back. Really would love to see 35k again, which if I recall accurately Bobby also pointed out as a good area. The range of value I estimated a long time ago is 35k low end and 150k high end with a fair value of 65k. Seems to be going that way. All we need is a few more major blockchain frauds to get us to 35k.
…Fears of looming selling pressure on bitcoin (BTC) from defunct exchange Mt. Gox and possible miner sales pushed the largest cryptocurrency to under $59,000 on Thursday for the first time since late April.
Mt. Gox will start distributing assets stolen from clients in a 2014 hack in July 2024, after years of postponed deadlines. The repayments will be made in bitcoin and bitcoin cash (BCH), and could add selling pressure to both markets, as previously reported….Coindesk