Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.

I hate writing about politics and only do so to the extent it impacts trading. This is one of hose times when politics (i.e. the US election) has potential to have long range implications for the global economy.so it pays to give it some attention.

The question we should be asking is to what extent President Trump will be looking to implement his campaign promises, especially the more extreme ones.

I will the answer to the political pundits except for one, the tariff policy, where President Trump called for across the board levies.

Let me see if I can say the following trying to be objective without passing judgement.

The list of cabinet nominees seems to have one thing in common, which is that they all appear to be Trump loyalists, presumably chosen to carry out his agenda. To be clear, I am not saying this is good or bad, time will tell although there are questions about several being qualified for their respective cabinet posts I will leave that discussion to the political pundits.

I am mainly interested in one cabinet post, Treasury Secretary, which as of this writing has not been nominated.

What is the role of Treasury Secretary

The Secretary of the Treasury is responsible for formulating and recommending domestic and international financial, economic, and tax policy, participating in the formulation of broad fiscal policies that have general significance for the economy, and managing the public debt. (AI Overview)

If we go on the premise that President Trump is nominating cabinet members willing to implement his agenda, even the extreme parts, then it is curious why a Treasury Secretary has not been named.

A conspiracy theorist might say it has to do with the tariff policy and a reluctance to find a candidate willing to promote a blanket levy. On the other hand, it might just be taking longer to find the candidate for this important post.

In any case, it might depend on what the tariff policy will be.

1) An across -the board-tariff on imports regardless of country or product.
2) Selective tariff increases based on country and/or products
3) Using the threat of tariffs as a negotiating ploy to exact economic or political concessions from US trading partners.

Whatever the case, the choice of the new Treasury Secretary will have to be one willing to support the Trump tariff policy, whatever it turns out to be.

Addendum: November 22 , 2024

Scott Bessent has been chosen as the next Treasury Secretary. Using the logic presented in this article, one can assume Mr. Bessent supports President Trump’s tariffs and that this will be part of the new administration’s economic agenda.

Scanning the news I found this in. a NYT article

Unlike many on Wall Street, Mr. Bessent, 62, has also defended the use of tariffs, which are Mr. Trump’s favorite economic tool

So US tariffs are a done deal… what size, shape and on what countries/products are the unknown.

Markets tend to factor in the worst and hope for the best. Thus is certainly true for tariffs as what shape they turn out to be will have an impact on the dollar, bonds and other markets as well.

Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.

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Why the Choice of the US Treasury Secretary is Important for Trading.