Do the German Elections Matter?

To be frank, I have been hyper focused on the aftermath of the US elections and have not spent much time thinking about the upcoming Sunday vote in Germany. If markets had shown any concerns I would have paid attention but with the DAX rising to a record high and the EURUSD recovering here seemed little incentive to pay much notice.

However, with the German elections upon us, it pays to take a look as to whether there might be a surprise that would spark a reaction and a weekend gap.

The way I read it, the focus is on the AfD ultra-right wing party which is forecast to come in second behind the CDU/CSU. Normally, this might send some shivers through markets but this risk has been neutralized by the other parties vowing not to include the AfD party in any coalition government.

I am just a trader so I am looking ahead to whether there might be a reaction to the vote. In this regard, barring a surprise showing by the AfD party, either under or overperforming, the impact should be limited.

With that said, it pays to be prepared as the greater risk would seem to be an underperformance by AfD as a stronger showing might spook some political pundits but the impact would be negated by the agreement not to include it in a new government.

Does the German Elections Matter?

Comments welcomed.

As for the comments on

Does the German Elections Matter?

Here comes one quite informed Forum member:

It is clear that German political elite is not going to let AfD join the Goverment, and thinking that these elections might be just another shuffling within existing Powers to be, and at first markets might see it as positive, there is another angle to it.

Angle that is way more serious then any of Mainstream media would let you know…even sniff it a bit…and that is the fact that things are changing within Germany dramatically.

As always, they are painting the picture of AfD voters as Extreme right that will crash Germany and all democratic processes within it. But…a BIG but….from my personal knowledge of those voters, I can tell you that these are the people of middle to upper class, highly educated and aware how their country changed over last several decades and became a paradise for immigrants and kind of a hell for themselves….

They are not going to stop with these elections – on contrary – it will give them even more strenght to fight further, and at the end they will prevail.

But in the mean time – how the German elections will affect markets ?

Well, if new established Gov accepts the new rules coming from the other side of Atlantic, Germany will continue being an engine of the EU and things will be just postponed.

But if they try to be contrarian to the New World order….it won’t be good at all.

I know how it all sounds to you, as only source of the information are Mainstream media, but take one step back and think it over a bit.

That Extreme Right they are talking about and trying to scare everyone with – it is Not AfD …you should worry about those Extreme Liberals whose only goal is to stay in the Power and won’t lose a second of their sleep on any terrorist attack, loss of lives, wave of layoffs, hyper inflation – anyting that hits hard their citizens – as long as they can get few votes more from the minorities, new registered voters ( immigrants – legal or not ) and numerous interest groups and extreme leftists . Only goal is to stay and die in current Positions.

And then ask youself one question: Is it a democracy when you are not allowed to think for yourself and God forbid say it out loud? If you have a different opinion then what they serve you – you are labeled that very moment as Uneducated, Old, Demented, without a single tooth in your mouth, Extreme Right, Lunatic….and a list goes on.

I am not a German, on contrary – my nation suffered immensely from their hands in two world wars , and we have a very different mentality, but I do understand them and what bothers them most now.

And I feel for them.

Do the German Elections Matter?